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Post by evergreenadam on Oct 20, 2023 11:49:38 GMT
Oh yes, I absolutely agree on that, and that's going to be very helpful. What I'm querying is why those LibDem voters should have totally believed they were the challengers. If EAL is right, then how come the Labour canvassing didn't work? My theory is that they don't find Labour an acceptable alternative. Yes, I think there are 2 different groups who we talk about . There are the ‘basically Tories’ who are unhappy who I think as we mostly agree are much happier to vote Lib Dem than Labour, I don’t think many of them will vote Lab next time. Then there is the different group of generic ‘anti Tories’ - some of them, who are not particularly politically aware. will have voted Lib Dem this time due to not being clear on the situation, and that group is there for Labour to work on for next time. Although the latter group would have been targeted by Labour this time and presumably would have received mountains of leaflets from Labour as well? |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 20, 2023 11:50:31 GMT
I think the difference next time is that it is 100% clear now, with evidence, which of the Lib Dem’s or Labour can beat the Tories, that will surely sway a few more. Oh yes, I absolutely agree on that, and that's going to be very helpful. What I'm querying is why those LibDem voters should have totally believed they were the challengers. If EAL is right, then how come the Labour canvassing didn't work? My theory is that they don't find Labour an acceptable alternative. Some of them, maybe, especially direct transfers from Conservative. Not so much normal LD voters unless they're actual party members. But the advice I was given on persuading voters in villages that we were more likely to win than Labour was to just look around and ask if it looked like a place Labour could win. Voters could be forgiven for doing so, especially if in a village where we might have been working it harder than Labour. They will now have much harder evidence to go on. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 20, 2023 11:53:10 GMT
Raw votes really mean very little though. They are important, but only when used in a wider context and not in isolation. I was stressing that this is a good result for Lab and the LD and poor for the Conservatives. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Oct 20, 2023 12:44:48 GMT
There was an MP called Nadine
Who thought the House of Lords more her scene
She abandoned Mid Beds
Which then fell to the Reds
All because she thought the PM had been mean
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 20, 2023 12:45:41 GMT
I didn't have you in mind. I'm thinking more of people celebrating a Lib Dem national polling vote share of c. 10-12% being replicated in the combined results, but almost all of the it in the place we wanted it and none where we knew we had no chance, as if that wasn't exactly what we want to happen at the GE; and crowing over the loony right vote share as if that isn't also a thing we and Labour will be happy to see. Then there is the astounding revelation that voters aren't much bothered about the specific policy or ideology of the party they're voting for, they've just decided that the Tories must go. No shit. Not much thought given to why that might be, though, or the role of people who used to be blue here in making it happen. Tbf to Pete Whitehead (and many other right wingers here, including myself) , he’s happy about the 10% right of Tory share because he wants the Tories to lose and the right-of-Tory parties to get a high share of the vote. It's been obvious for some time that Pete and right-wing conservatives generally have lost faith in the Tories - it's one reason I'm sure the Conservatives will lose the GE. The more Sunak tries to appease them, the more they turn away. It's equally obvious that having undermined the party at every opportunity they hope to then swoop in and either take over (MAGA-style) or replace the Tories as the sole alternative to Labour under FPTP. This is of course the strategy that worked so well for the left from 2015-19. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 20, 2023 13:23:28 GMT
Is there an example of the Tories gaining a safe labour seat in a by election?
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Oct 20, 2023 13:24:50 GMT
Is there an example of the Tories gaining a safe labour seat in a by election? Depending on your definition, Hartlepool or Copeland |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 20, 2023 13:27:23 GMT
Is there an example of the Tories gaining a safe labour seat in a by election? There weren’t any in the 1997-2010 Labour government, but a few in the 1970s- Ashfield, Workington, Birmingham Stechford. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 20, 2023 13:31:12 GMT
Is there an example of the Tories gaining a safe labour seat in a by election? There weren’t any in the 1997-2010 Labour government, but a few in the 1970s- Ashfield, Workington, Birmingham Stechford. Walsall North as well. All four were won back by Labour in 1979 despite the overall defeat |
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 14:24:11 GMT
Well that's not what the law states is it? Or we would have to have reviews every year dear old Harry - where would this forum be without his crazier assertions? |
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 14:33:20 GMT
Is there an example of the Tories gaining a safe labour seat in a by election? There weren’t any in the 1997-2010 Labour government, but a few in the 1970s- Ashfield, Workington, Birmingham Stechford. In the 1966-70 parliament, there were several : Dudley, Walthamstow W, Swindon, Oldham W. come to mind. All of these seats could reasonably have been described as safe at the time before the Tories gained them in by-elections. There were some very close shaves in other safe seats too. Ashfield in 1977 had a very large Labour majority before Tim Smith gained it for the Tories. Smith is one of a select band of politicians who have won two by-elections since WWII. |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 14:58:24 GMT
Is there an example of the Tories gaining a safe labour seat in a by election? There weren’t any in the 1997-2010 Labour government, but a few in the 1970s- Ashfield, Workington, Birmingham Stechford. Woolwich West maybe (?) which was won by the ubiquitous Peter Bottomley in the 70s! Not sure if it ever qualified as "safe Labour" though? |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 20, 2023 15:25:25 GMT
There weren’t any in the 1997-2010 Labour government, but a few in the 1970s- Ashfield, Workington, Birmingham Stechford. Woolwich West maybe (?) which was won by the ubiquitous Peter Bottomley in the 70s! Not sure if it ever qualified as "safe Labour" though? Lovely word ubiquitous and can be used of celebs in TV like Alan Whicker, but not really of Bottomley. |
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 15:37:55 GMT
There weren’t any in the 1997-2010 Labour government, but a few in the 1970s- Ashfield, Workington, Birmingham Stechford. Woolwich West maybe (?) which was won by the ubiquitous Peter Bottomley in the 70s! Not sure if it ever qualified as "safe Labour" though? no, that was a long-term marginal which was held by the Tories throughout the 1950s. It is only in the last two general elections (as Eltham, its recognisable successor seat) that it has finally lost its at least semi-marginal characterictics and become a safe Labour seat. The Labour government of 1964-1970 also lost plenty of non-safe seats in by-elections, e.g. Leyton, Leicester SW, Walthamstow E (it would be rank Labour today if it existed, but was marginal then) and so on. |
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 15:39:02 GMT
And to be fair Peter Bottomley has only, in real terms, held 2 seats.
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Post by evergreenadam on Oct 20, 2023 16:31:34 GMT
The Independent seemed to do quite, no idea how hard they campaigned or what they stood for.
Their percentage share was greater than the Labour majority which shows how difficult this seat would be to defend for Labour, if the boundaries remained unchanged.
As it happens Strathern will be a flash in the pan here, if he stands in the new Hitchin constituency at the General Election. The vast majority of the electorate in Mid Beds will never have the opportunity to vote for or against him again.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 20, 2023 19:33:00 GMT
This is utterly shameless. She should, quite frankly, be thrown out the party for this. People have been expelled for less.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 20:02:18 GMT
I cannot think of any by-election in the Labour Party's 123-year long history which could reasonably be argued to be a greater result than this one. We are an increasingly formidable election-winning machine and just think that only 2 years ago we lost Hartlepool, and lost it overwhelmingly. We have come a very long way since then. Staffordshire SE? Dudley West? Similar swings, but bigger turnouts, and bigger numbers of Labour votes in absolute terms. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 20:11:51 GMT
Yes, because the Boundary Commission are using older electorates my figure overstates what’s happening. The electorate last night was over 92,000 and the published Commission electorate, on their terms, is/was 71,000. It illustrates how fast the area is growing. I presume when it’s fought under the new boundaries it’ll be some thousands above their figure. And as the law calls for all constituencies to be no more than +/5% of the UK electral quota then I wonder whether we could see legal challenges in Conservative seats after the election stating that the constituency is illegal? Nobody else is wondering any such thing, because it isn’t. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 20:18:27 GMT
Is there an example of the Tories gaining a safe labour seat in a by election? Hartlepool 2021 Ashfield 1977 Birmingham Stechford 1977 Acton 1968 |
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