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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 20, 2023 8:52:31 GMT
Barely one in three voters actually voted Labour . Hardly a resounding democratic mandate. Nah, come on, it's a bloody good result for Labour and let's not pretend otherwise. It's perfectly acceptable for us too, despite the usual cope from the far right buffoons on here. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 20, 2023 8:56:12 GMT
A significant proportion of the Lib Dem vote will have voted for them yesterday because they believed that only they could beat the Tories. On that basis, if there isn't a significant swingback in the polls then I wouldn't be surprised if Strathern were to hold this seat at the general election. Obviously he'd be toast at the following election, but 6 years in Parliament is plenty of time to build up a profile and ensure you can then win the selection for a safer seat in future.
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Post by matureleft on Oct 20, 2023 8:58:47 GMT
A significant proportion of the Lib Dem vote will have voted for them yesterday because they believed that only they could beat the Tories. On that basis, if there isn't a significant swingback in the polls then I wouldn't be surprised if Strathern were to hold this seat at the general election. Obviously he'd be toast at the following election, but 6 years in Parliament is plenty of time to build up a profile and ensure you can then win the selection for a safer seat in future. The boundary changes are going to chew this seat quite severely so he will have a chance to move a little anyway next year without much loss of face. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Oct 20, 2023 9:01:10 GMT
Bim Afolami a loser from last night. Looks like he can face a top-rate Labour incumbent in the new Hitchin seat, or a serious Lib Dem challenge which only needs to follow council results in Harpenden and Berkhamsted. Not an appealing choice.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 20, 2023 9:10:21 GMT
A significant proportion of the Lib Dem vote will have voted for them yesterday because they believed that only they could beat the Tories. On that basis, if there isn't a significant swingback in the polls then I wouldn't be surprised if Strathern were to hold this seat at the general election. Obviously he'd be toast at the following election, but 6 years in Parliament is plenty of time to build up a profile and ensure you can then win the selection for a safer seat in future. The boundary changes are going to chew this seat quite severely so he will have a chance to move a little anyway next year without much loss of face. Not really - the seat is maintained in its essential form, losing a few thousand voters to neighbouring seats. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 20, 2023 9:11:54 GMT
A significant proportion of the Lib Dem vote will have voted for them yesterday because they believed that only they could beat the Tories. On that basis, if there isn't a significant swingback in the polls then I wouldn't be surprised if Strathern were to hold this seat at the general election. Obviously he'd be toast at the following election, but 6 years in Parliament is plenty of time to build up a profile and ensure you can then win the selection for a safer seat in future. The boundary changes are going to chew this seat quite severely so he will have a chance to move a little anyway next year without much loss of face. Not especially severely - basically just shedding a ward and a half. That ward and a half will have been better for Labour than the rest of the seat, but I suspect (those LDs who campaigned in the seat may be able to correct me if I'm in error) that the margin out of there is unlikely to have outweighed the entire majority. I think if he'd lost the by-election narrowly then I'd certainly expect him to be standing in Hitchin, but in this case I'm not sure it'll happen. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 20, 2023 9:13:08 GMT
Bim Afolami a loser from last night. Looks like he can face a top-rate Labour incumbent in the new Hitchin seat, or a serious Lib Dem challenge which only needs to follow council results in Harpenden and Berkhamsted. Not an appealing choice. Which actually doesn't usually happen. You're from Milton Keynes North/NE aren't you? We all remember how when that seat was created it was going to be a plum Lib Dem seat following local council results (see also York Outer, etc etc) |
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 20, 2023 9:15:52 GMT
A significant proportion of the Lib Dem vote will have voted for them yesterday because they believed that only they could beat the Tories. On that basis, if there isn't a significant swingback in the polls then I wouldn't be surprised if Strathern were to hold this seat at the general election. Obviously he'd be toast at the following election, but 6 years in Parliament is plenty of time to build up a profile and ensure you can then win the selection for a safer seat in future. Equally to the point, at the GE a significant number of voters that might prefer to vote Lib Dem will vote Labour in the seat (or its nearest successor) as the best way of keeping the Tories a long, long way away from government. I still think this is a Tory regain in all but total meltdown conditions though. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 20, 2023 9:24:46 GMT
Barely one in three voters actually voted Labour . Hardly a resounding democratic mandate. Nah, come on, it's a bloody good result for Labour and let's not pretend otherwise. It's perfectly acceptable for us too, despite the usual cope from the far right buffoons on here. Agreed, raw votes 2019 v last night
| 2019 | 2023 | | Con | 38,692 | 12,680 | | Lab | 14,028 | 13,872 | | LD | 8,171 | 9,420 |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 9:25:40 GMT
Turnout was low in Tamworth, but it was pretty decent here for a by-election. Wait until you see Hackney next month  |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 20, 2023 9:34:58 GMT
A significant proportion of the Lib Dem vote will have voted for them yesterday because they believed that only they could beat the Tories. On that basis, if there isn't a significant swingback in the polls then I wouldn't be surprised if Strathern were to hold this seat at the general election. Obviously he'd be toast at the following election, but 6 years in Parliament is plenty of time to build up a profile and ensure you can then win the selection for a safer seat in future. I see what you're getting at, an I'd be hopeful you're right. But surely those LibDem voters you talk about will have had plenty of contact from Labour during this very protacted campaign? As wavering or unhappy Cons, they'd have been a prime target for leafleting and canvassing, surely? So if this time they still voted LibDem rather than Labour, what's their path next time? |
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 9:39:06 GMT
I thought Andrew Bowie was very good on the BBC and the fact that he was put in to do it shows how his star is in ascendency. With the SNP in second, he ought to hold on and then with the Tories in opposition, he ought to hold on the time after. I can see him rising to shadow cabinet rank, and in time therefore to cabinet, without ever having an original thought or saying anything of any objective worth. A knighthood and directorships to follow Nadine Dorries must be delighted and they said on Absolute Radio 90s, the madder she gets the more I fancy her. The important takeaway from this is that Labour is not so worrisome that even rock-solid Tory seats detest them. Tories are so woeful that its core vote can't be bothered But the Lib Dem vote entertained me most. They can preform fairly well in Mid Beds and elsewhere when the electorate want to protest against the Tories and they look to be plausible contenders. A wholly tactical negative anti Tory vote. But in Tamworth when they are clearly not in the running and all they have is people who actually want to vote Lib Dem, they limped home on 1.6%, behind three different Right wing splinter micro parties. Daisy Cooper says their swing in Mid Beds suggest they can win scores of seats, and I think she is correct, Tamworth suggests they may also lose hundreds of deposits. And their scores of MPs will be a ragtag bunch of randoms ranging from me to Cogload plus assorted gimps and pan-sexuals with nothing in common other than having fought a safe Tory seat Blimey! You read it here first. Boogie will be a Lib Dem MP after the next general election.  the second Scottish Lib Dem MP called Wallace. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Oct 20, 2023 9:39:46 GMT
Bim Afolami a loser from last night. Looks like he can face a top-rate Labour incumbent in the new Hitchin seat, or a serious Lib Dem challenge which only needs to follow council results in Harpenden and Berkhamsted. Not an appealing choice. Which actually doesn't usually happen. You're from Milton Keynes North/NE aren't you? We all remember how when that seat was created it was going to be a plum Lib Dem seat following local council results (see also York Outer, etc etc) Before my time I'm afraid but your basic point is sound. Lots of examples of Lib Dems doing well locally and not translating to parliamentary level. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 20, 2023 9:40:11 GMT
A significant proportion of the Lib Dem vote will have voted for them yesterday because they believed that only they could beat the Tories. On that basis, if there isn't a significant swingback in the polls then I wouldn't be surprised if Strathern were to hold this seat at the general election. Obviously he'd be toast at the following election, but 6 years in Parliament is plenty of time to build up a profile and ensure you can then win the selection for a safer seat in future. I see what you're getting at, an I'd be hopeful you're right. But surely those LibDem voters you talk about will have had plenty of contact from Labour during this very protacted campaign? As wavering or unhappy Cons, they'd have been a prime target for leafleting and canvassing, surely? So if this time they still voted LibDem rather than Labour, what's their path next time? I think the difference next time is that it is 100% clear now, with evidence, which of the Lib Dem’s or Labour can beat the Tories, that will surely sway a few more. |
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 9:43:14 GMT
Well done, Labour: two excellent wins in very different seats. The people have decided, ('the bastards'), and there'll be a Labour government after the next election. The only question will be how much of a majority they get. I expect more playing it safe from Starmer - don't scare the horses. A qualified well done to the LibDems: no one expected anything in Tamworth, so it means nothing, despite the best efforts of some to label it a poor showing, and in Mid Beds they didn't win or come second, but they got a significant vote increase, almost as much in percentage terms as Labour, despite both of them fighting it hard. Reinforces my belief that there is a significant pool of disaffected Tories who won't go Labour under any circumstances. Some constituencies will have any more of those, plus where Labour don't fight a big chunk of the vote that went Labour here will go LibDem. It's going to be a good election for the LibDems. Disastrous for the Cons: Labour majorities in both seats were smaller than the RefUk vote, That doesn't mean they'd have got all those votes if RefUK didn't stand, but it doesn't bode well that they could do that well. as mentoned above, they're going to be fighting a GE on two fronts, requiring completely different campaign messaging. Even a locally prominent and apparently favoured candidate didn't save the, in Mid Beds. Do they have people with the skills to walk that fine line? Do they have people with skills? For any Con supporters look for straws to clutch at - don't bother, they've all gone. So Greg Hands says he 'doesn't see any great enthusiasm for Labour' - in which case, Greg, how much do people hate the Tories? mostly a very fair comment. The one thing I would modify slightly, rather than outright disagree, is with the amount of voters who are disaffected Tories who won't go Labour under any circumstances. There undoubtedly are such voters, but also I suspect that quite a lot of last night's Lib Dem voters (mostly, one feels, in the smaller villages rather than in the towns where Labour probably won in every case) voted Lib Dem precisely because they felt that that party had a chance. If such voters perceive that the LDs are also-rans as in Tamworth, some of them would go Labour, in many or even most constituencies. |
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 9:46:22 GMT
I cannot think of any by-election in the Labour Party's 123-year long history which could reasonably be argued to be a greater result than this one. We are an increasingly formidable election-winning machine and just think that only 2 years ago we lost Hartlepool, and lost it overwhelmingly. We have come a very long way since then. And in three more years it could have evaporated like morning dew! You have made a bit of progress but not much. The terminal stupidity of the Conservatives has collapsed their vote and it makes you look better than you really are. After the next GE your honeymoon will be much shorter than it was in 1997 and within 18-months I predict you will be losing seats again and there will be misplaced fervour on the right. if Labour wins the next general election, which very few people would now bet against (at the very least, in terms of the party forming a government, even if not a majority one), that in itself requires a lot of progress, since the swing necessary to achieve that is a large one. You may be right about the honeymoon, you may be wrong, it's far too early to know that. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2023 9:48:39 GMT
Lmao the Tories got humiliated tonight. Love to see them losing Mid Bedfordshire and with such a huge swing, they can't even win a seat with a 25,000 majority when the opposition vote is split. They are such a toxic government. *in a by election The Tories deserve to lose in a landslide, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t take both seats back in the GE. As mentioned elsewhere, the Labour winner here is likely to go for the new Hitchin seat (which only contains part of this one) come the GE. Still a tough ask, but far from unwinnable in a Labour "wave" election. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 20, 2023 9:49:36 GMT
Labour – 13,872 (34.1%) Conservative - 12,680 (31.1%) Lib Dem – 9,420 (23.1%) Gareth Mackie – 1,865 (4.6%) Reform UK – 1,487 (3.7%) Green – 732 (1.8%) OMRLP – 249 (0.6%) English Democrats – 107 (0.3%) CPA – 101 (0.2%) True & Fair – 93 (0.2%) Heritage – 63 (0.2%) Ankit Love – 27 (0.1%) Mainstream – 24 (0.1%) Just goes to show that you'll never win from the mainstream. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2023 9:52:05 GMT
I wonder if MPs will be so desperate and despairing now that they consider another leadership change. A lot of Tories seem to be indulging in copium regarding turnout and (really) "the Labour majorities should have been bigger". |
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Post by matureleft on Oct 20, 2023 9:52:44 GMT
The boundary changes are going to chew this seat quite severely so he will have a chance to move a little anyway next year without much loss of face. Not really - the seat is maintained in its essential form, losing a few thousand voters to neighbouring seats. Without wishing to argue this point too hard, by my reckoning the seat loses just over 20,000 in total from the amendments? I suppose it depends what I mean by "quite severely". These aren't minor changes and couldn't be with a constituency with an electorate of over 90,000. Yes, he'd of course have first claim on the truncated seat, but he lives in the part that's going so he has a reasonable argument for a shift. |
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