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Post by carlton43 on Oct 20, 2023 5:13:53 GMT
If Labour have won a majority of 3-4k and the Lib Dem vote is up by 10%+ then the Tory meltdown is truly spectacular. Congrats to our red team - fantastic night for you guys. I am covering my ears, spinning round 4 times, whilst shouting "La la la la" and then spitting in the wind. Don't jinx it!!! Senior RC cleric admits to being very superstitious and using childish modes to ward off lurking evils. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 20, 2023 5:38:48 GMT
Lab GAIN Lab - 13,872 Con - 12,680 Lib Dem - 9,420 Quite narrow. It won't be held at the GE. The LD very distinct Third Place is the most gratifying event of the night. A clear 3000 gap is something to cherish after all that hubristic hype earlier in the campaign. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 20, 2023 6:53:20 GMT
The fact is that this seat wouldn’t have been a target for either party except in circumstances of both Tory national unpopularity and the behaviour of the individual MPs in this and a couple of other seats. So the parties have a sort of “shot to nothing”. You can understand why both are having a go. But I sense a deeper Labour strategic point that’s being made which is essentially that the Lib Dems should stick to territory that is comfortable for Labour - “blue wall” seats where Labour is clearly out of it. Thus I suspect Labour’s second choice outcome would be a Tory hold demonstrating the limits of Lib Dem reach to them. I thought I’d dig up something I said a few days ago. Clearly a great result (with a pretty reasonable turnout). But part of Labour’s purpose is set out in my last paragraph. That was to set some sensible limits on the party’s informal relationship with the Lib Dems. There are certainly many places where Labour won’t run proper campaigns and where there’s an informal understanding. But Labour will decide those and if the Lib Dems overreach they’ll be resisted. Looking practically there will be plenty of Lib Dem potential targets, probably exceeding the party’s capacity to fight them. They need to focus sharply on those. In 2019 they ran some kamikaze campaigns that helped the Tories. Make wiser choices this time. Yes, very sound. As you said, it was worth both parties trying but it will be very satisfactory for Labour to have asserted their muscle. You're also correct in that it's not disastrous for us to have our field of operations kept within reach of our resources. Usual cope and seethe from the ex-Tories on here misses the point. Lab don't have to win in Mid-Beds, nor need this level of Tory abstention to win a GE. The disillusionment of Tory voters across their spectrum is palpable and swing voters are going for whatever option they think will get the Tories out. Anywhere remotely marginal is in play at the GE. Sunak's room for manoeuvre on election dates is further proscribed and I expect party discipline to be poor too. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 20, 2023 6:53:38 GMT
The first Labour candidate for Mid Beds, Robert Wigzell, who stood in the 1923 General Election was a railwayman from Wood Green.
His was a last minute candidacy and the subject of some controversy as there were fears that it would "split the progressive vote". The vote of the Trades council to stand him as a candidate was only passed thirteen votes to twelve.
The Liberal majority did decrease, but when the seat was lost to the Tories in 1924 Labour didn't stand. When Labour stood again in 1929, the seat was re-gained by the Liberals.
His successor as Labour candidate Henry Fenner was said to have joined the Labour party as the result of "a personal friendship with Keir Hardie".
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 20, 2023 6:57:42 GMT
I thought Andrew Bowie was very good on the BBC and the fact that he was put in to do it shows how his star is in ascendency. With the SNP in second, he ought to hold on and then with the Tories in opposition, he ought to hold on the time after. I can see him rising to shadow cabinet rank, and in time therefore to cabinet, without ever having an original thought or saying anything of any objective worth. A knighthood and directorships to follow
Nadine Dorries must be delighted and they said on Absolute Radio 90s, the madder she gets the more I fancy her.
The important takeaway from this is that Labour is not so worrisome that even rock-solid Tory seats detest them. Tories are so woeful that its core vote can't be bothered
But the Lib Dem vote entertained me most. They can preform fairly well in Mid Beds and elsewhere when the electorate want to protest against the Tories and they look to be plausible contenders. A wholly tactical negative anti Tory vote. But in Tamworth when they are clearly not in the running and all they have is people who actually want to vote Lib Dem, they limped home on 1.6%, behind three different Right wing splinter micro parties.
Daisy Cooper says their swing in Mid Beds suggest they can win scores of seats, and I think she is correct, Tamworth suggests they may also lose hundreds of deposits. And their scores of MPs will be a ragtag bunch of randoms ranging from me to Cogload plus assorted gimps and pan-sexuals with nothing in common other than having fought a safe Tory seat
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Post by froome on Oct 20, 2023 7:18:08 GMT
I thought Andrew Bowie was very good on the BBC and the fact that he was put in to do it shows how his star is in ascendency. With the SNP in second, he ought to hold on and then with the Tories in opposition, he ought to hold on the time after. I can see him rising to shadow cabinet rank, and in time therefore to cabinet, without ever having an original thought or saying anything of any objective worth. A knighthood and directorships to follow Nadine Dorries must be delighted and they said on Absolute Radio 90s, the madder she gets the more I fancy her. The important takeaway from this is that Labour is not so worrisome that even rock-solid Tory seats detest them. Tories are so woeful that its core vote can't be bothered But the Lib Dem vote entertained me most. They can preform fairly well in Mid Beds and elsewhere when the electorate want to protest against the Tories and they look to be plausible contenders. A wholly tactical negative anti Tory vote. But in Tamworth when they are clearly not in the running and all they have is people who actually want to vote Lib Dem, they limped home on 1.6%, behind three different Right wing splinter micro parties. Daisy Cooper says their swing in Mid Beds suggest they can win scores of seats, and I think she is correct, Tamworth suggests they may also lose hundreds of deposits. And their scores of MPs will be a ragtag bunch of randoms ranging from me to Cogload plus assorted gimps and pan-sexuals with nothing in common other than having fought a safe Tory seat Blimey! You read it here first. Boogie will be a Lib Dem MP after the next general election.  |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 20, 2023 7:22:05 GMT
I thought Andrew Bowie was very good on the BBC and the fact that he was put in to do it shows how his star is in ascendency. With the SNP in second, he ought to hold on and then with the Tories in opposition, he ought to hold on the time after. I can see him rising to shadow cabinet rank, and in time therefore to cabinet, without ever having an original thought or saying anything of any objective worth. A knighthood and directorships to follow Nadine Dorries must be delighted and they said on Absolute Radio 90s, the madder she gets the more I fancy her. The important takeaway from this is that Labour is not so worrisome that even rock-solid Tory seats detest them. Tories are so woeful that its core vote can't be bothered But the Lib Dem vote entertained me most. They can preform fairly well in Mid Beds and elsewhere when the electorate want to protest against the Tories and they look to be plausible contenders. A wholly tactical negative anti Tory vote. But in Tamworth when they are clearly not in the running and all they have is people who actually want to vote Lib Dem, they limped home on 1.6%, behind three different Right wing splinter micro parties. Daisy Cooper says their swing in Mid Beds suggest they can win scores of seats, and I think she is correct, Tamworth suggests they may also lose hundreds of deposits. And their scores of MPs will be a ragtag bunch of randoms ranging from me to Cogload plus assorted gimps and pan-sexuals with nothing in common other than having fought a safe Tory seat Blimey! You read it here first. Boogie will be a Lib Dem MP after the next general election. I'm not sure even the Lib Demms would have him as a candidate... |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 20, 2023 7:23:14 GMT
And their scores of MPs will be a ragtag bunch of randoms ranging from me to Cogload plus assorted gimps and pan-sexuals with nothing in common other than having fought a safe Tory seat Hmmm.... I'm slightly tempted to put my name forward.  |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 20, 2023 7:27:22 GMT
I thought Andrew Bowie was very good on the BBC and the fact that he was put in to do it shows how his star is in ascendency. With the SNP in second, he ought to hold on and then with the Tories in opposition, he ought to hold on the time after. I can see him rising to shadow cabinet rank, and in time therefore to cabinet, without ever having an original thought or saying anything of any objective worth. A knighthood and directorships to follow Nadine Dorries must be delighted and they said on Absolute Radio 90s, the madder she gets the more I fancy her. The important takeaway from this is that Labour is not so worrisome that even rock-solid Tory seats detest them. Tories are so woeful that its core vote can't be bothered But the Lib Dem vote entertained me most. They can preform fairly well in Mid Beds and elsewhere when the electorate want to protest against the Tories and they look to be plausible contenders. A wholly tactical negative anti Tory vote. But in Tamworth when they are clearly not in the running and all they have is people who actually want to vote Lib Dem, they limped home on 1.6%, behind three different Right wing splinter micro parties. Daisy Cooper says their swing in Mid Beds suggest they can win scores of seats, and I think she is correct, Tamworth suggests they may also lose hundreds of deposits. And their scores of MPs will be a ragtag bunch of randoms ranging from me to Cogload plus assorted gimps and pan-sexuals with nothing in common other than having fought a safe Tory seat Blimey! You read it here first. Boogie will be a Lib Dem MP after the next general election. #fakeboogienews |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 20, 2023 7:39:49 GMT
I thought I’d dig up something I said a few days ago. Clearly a great result (with a pretty reasonable turnout). But part of Labour’s purpose is set out in my last paragraph. That was to set some sensible limits on the party’s informal relationship with the Lib Dems. There are certainly many places where Labour won’t run proper campaigns and where there’s an informal understanding. But Labour will decide those and if the Lib Dems overreach they’ll be resisted. Looking practically there will be plenty of Lib Dem potential targets, probably exceeding the party’s capacity to fight them. They need to focus sharply on those. In 2019 they ran some kamikaze campaigns that helped the Tories. Make wiser choices this time. Yes, very sound. As you said, it was worth both parties trying but it will be very satisfactory for Labour to have asserted their muscle. You're also correct in that it's not disastrous for us to have our field of operations kept within reach of our resources. Usual cope and seethe from the ex-Tories on here misses the point. Lab don't have to win in Mid-Beds, nor need this level of Tory abstention to win a GE. The disillusionment of Tory voters across their spectrum is palpable and swing voters are going for whatever option they think will get the Tories out. Anywhere remotely marginal is in play at the GE. Sunak's room for manoeuvre on election dates is further proscribed and I expect party discipline to be poor too. I wouldn’t say I “coped and seethed” as I literally said that the Tories deserve to lose in a landslide. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 20, 2023 7:49:02 GMT
Well done, Labour: two excellent wins in very different seats. The people have decided, ('the bastards'), and there'll be a Labour government after the next election. The only question will be how much of a majority they get. I expect more playing it safe from Starmer - don't scare the horses.
A qualified well done to the LibDems: no one expected anything in Tamworth, so it means nothing, despite the best efforts of some to label it a poor showing, and in Mid Beds they didn't win or come second, but they got a significant vote increase, almost as much in percentage terms as Labour, despite both of them fighting it hard. Reinforces my belief that there is a significant pool of disaffected Tories who won't go Labour under any circumstances. Some constituencies will have any more of those, plus where Labour don't fight a big chunk of the vote that went Labour here will go LibDem. It's going to be a good election for the LibDems.
Disastrous for the Cons: Labour majorities in both seats were smaller than the RefUk vote, That doesn't mean they'd have got all those votes if RefUK didn't stand, but it doesn't bode well that they could do that well. as mentoned above, they're going to be fighting a GE on two fronts, requiring completely different campaign messaging. Even a locally prominent and apparently favoured candidate didn't save the, in Mid Beds. Do they have people with the skills to walk that fine line? Do they have people with skills? For any Con supporters look for straws to clutch at - don't bother, they've all gone.
And the locally well-known and well-liked Independent in Mid Beds lost his deposit. So much for him being a significant factor.
So Greg Hands says he 'doesn't see any great enthusiasm for Labour' - in which case, Greg, how much do people hate the Tories?
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 7:50:25 GMT
I cannot think of any by-election in the Labour Party's 123-year long history which could reasonably be argued to be a greater result than this one. We are an increasingly formidable election-winning machine and just think that only 2 years ago we lost Hartlepool, and lost it overwhelmingly. We have come a very long way since then.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 20, 2023 7:53:26 GMT
And their scores of MPs will be a ragtag bunch of randoms ranging from me to Cogload plus assorted gimps and pan-sexuals with nothing in common other than having fought a safe Tory seat Hmmm.... I'm slightly tempted to put my name forward. The one LibDem candidate I’d vote for. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Oct 20, 2023 8:11:18 GMT
But the Lib Dem vote entertained me most. They can preform fairly well in Mid Beds and elsewhere when the electorate want to protest against the Tories and they look to be plausible contenders. A wholly tactical negative anti Tory vote. But in Tamworth when they are clearly not in the running and all they have is people who actually want to vote Lib Dem, they limped home on 1.6%, behind three different Right wing splinter micro parties. Just to put this out there, I would have voted Labour yesterday if I lived in Tamworth. As someone who has never voted Labour in my life. This does not mean that I do not actually want to vote Lib Dem. The number of seats where I would vote Labour if I lived there at the next general election is probably going to be higher than any other general election in my life, but will still likely be outnumbered about 7 or 8 to 1 by the number where I would vote Lib Dem (the latter group of which of course includes the one where I live). The people who voted Lib Dem in Tamworth in 2019, when it was a safe Tory seat with no serious challenge to anyone, was a reflection of the people in Tamworth who wanted to vote Lib Dem then. The people who voted Lib Dem in the Tamworth by election is no more a representation of the number of people in Tamworth who actually want to vote Lib Dem than the people who voted Labour in Tiverton and Honiton was a representation of the number who actually wanted to vote Labour. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 20, 2023 8:21:36 GMT
I cannot think of any by-election in the Labour Party's 123-year long history which could reasonably be argued to be a greater result than this one. We are an increasingly formidable election-winning machine and just think that only 2 years ago we lost Hartlepool, and lost it overwhelmingly. We have come a very long way since then. And in three more years it could have evaporated like morning dew! You have made a bit of progress but not much. The terminal stupidity of the Conservatives has collapsed their vote and it makes you look better than you really are. After the next GE your honeymoon will be much shorter than it was in 1997 and within 18-months I predict you will be losing seats again and there will be misplaced fervour on the right. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 20, 2023 8:26:46 GMT
Well done, Labour: two excellent wins in very different seats. The people have decided, ('the bastards'), and there'll be a Labour government after the next election. The only question will be how much of a majority they get. I expect more playing it safe from Starmer - don't scare the horses. A qualified well done to the LibDems: no one expected anything in Tamworth, so it means nothing, despite the best efforts of some to label it a poor showing, and in Mid Beds they didn't win or come second, but they got a significant vote increase, almost as much in percentage terms as Labour, despite both of them fighting it hard. Reinforces my belief that there is a significant pool of disaffected Tories who won't go Labour under any circumstances. Some constituencies will have any more of those, plus where Labour don't fight a big chunk of the vote that went Labour here will go LibDem. It's going to be a good election for the LibDems. Disastrous for the Cons: Labour majorities in both seats were smaller than the RefUk vote, That doesn't mean they'd have got all those votes if RefUK didn't stand, but it doesn't bode well that they could do that well. as mentoned above, they're going to be fighting a GE on two fronts, requiring completely different campaign messaging. Even a locally prominent and apparently favoured candidate didn't save the, in Mid Beds. Do they have people with the skills to walk that fine line? Do they have people with skills? For any Con supporters look for straws to clutch at - don't bother, they've all gone. And the locally well-known and well-liked Independent in Mid Beds lost his deposit. So much for him being a significant factor. So Greg Hands says he 'doesn't see any great enthusiasm for Labour' - in which case, Greg, how much do people hate the Tories? My feeling on that last line is there is a bit of enthusiasm for Labour, on the grounds of wanting a bit of competence, but that he is not wrong as there is no great enthusiasm- your not getting much ‘ I really want Labour in power’, your getting more ‘ I suppose I’ll give Labour a go’ and a lot of people hate the Tories a lot at the moment. |
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 20, 2023 8:36:21 GMT
Barely one in three voters actually voted Labour . Hardly a resounding democratic mandate.
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Post by froome on Oct 20, 2023 8:40:34 GMT
Well done, Labour: two excellent wins in very different seats. The people have decided, ('the bastards'), and there'll be a Labour government after the next election. The only question will be how much of a majority they get. I expect more playing it safe from Starmer - don't scare the horses. A qualified well done to the LibDems: no one expected anything in Tamworth, so it means nothing, despite the best efforts of some to label it a poor showing, and in Mid Beds they didn't win or come second, but they got a significant vote increase, almost as much in percentage terms as Labour, despite both of them fighting it hard. Reinforces my belief that there is a significant pool of disaffected Tories who won't go Labour under any circumstances. Some constituencies will have any more of those, plus where Labour don't fight a big chunk of the vote that went Labour here will go LibDem. It's going to be a good election for the LibDems. Disastrous for the Cons: Labour majorities in both seats were smaller than the RefUk vote, That doesn't mean they'd have got all those votes if RefUK didn't stand, but it doesn't bode well that they could do that well. as mentoned above, they're going to be fighting a GE on two fronts, requiring completely different campaign messaging. Even a locally prominent and apparently favoured candidate didn't save the, in Mid Beds. Do they have people with the skills to walk that fine line? Do they have people with skills? For any Con supporters look for straws to clutch at - don't bother, they've all gone. And the locally well-known and well-liked Independent in Mid Beds lost his deposit. So much for him being a significant factor. So Greg Hands says he 'doesn't see any great enthusiasm for Labour' - in which case, Greg, how much do people hate the Tories? My feeling on that last line is there is a bit of enthusiasm for Labour, on the grounds of wanting a bit of competence, but that he is not wrong as there is no great enthusiasm- your not getting much ‘ I really want Labour in power’, your getting more ‘ I suppose I’ll give Labour a go’ and a lot of people hate the Tories a lot at the moment. Yes, the golden rule for the two largest parties is that you have to be disliked a little bit less than the other one. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 20, 2023 8:43:06 GMT
Excellent result. Tories humiliated in a formerly rock solid safe seat and despite their substantial efforts and risible ramping the lying Lib Dem leppers finish way back in third.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 20, 2023 8:45:44 GMT
*in a by election The Tories deserve to lose in a landslide, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t take both seats back in the GE. Boundary changes, dear boy. I expect Labour will select Aliatair Strathern for the new Hitchin seat (where he will be living), and to win. It's a pretty small part of this seat which goes into Hitchin. That seat is winnable in landslide conditions (whereas this is not) so it may make some sense, but he's hardly going to carry across a big personal vote in much of the seat |
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