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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 20, 2023 2:34:05 GMT
I noticed Sky News really struggling to zoom in fast enough to hide the libellous paper held by the Emporer of India I was watching the declaration on BBC, and of course I was concentrating on writing the numbers down, so I didn’t see what the kerfuffle was - but I did notice that there was some sort of kerfuffle. Something about Modi murdering? His sign read "MODI MURDERED MY MOTHER". |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 2:34:52 GMT
I noticed Sky News really struggling to zoom in fast enough to hide the libellous paper held by the Emporer of India I was watching the declaration on BBC, and of course I was concentrating on writing the numbers down, so I didn’t see what the kerfuffle was - but I did notice that there was some sort of kerfuffle. Something about Modi murdering? He held up a sign saying something like "Modi murdered my mother" which they quickly zoomed out from. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 20, 2023 2:36:14 GMT
For libel reasons or for fear of commercial repercutions from the BJP government?
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 20, 2023 2:36:18 GMT
This is a very important win. Bit because it says anything about the constituency or about similar constituencies, but because there are lots I towns with similarities to places like Barton-le-Clay, Flitwick, and the other towns in this seat and if they have started voting against the Tories it could make a big difference in a lot of constituencies It is a much more impressive result than Tamworth despite a lower swing because Labour has no history of winning here. |
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Post by brianj on Oct 20, 2023 2:39:23 GMT
So Labour wins the doubleheader, the LibDems have something to look forward to, and I advise Tories to start drinking heavily. What do the Lib Dems have to look forward to? They've been marginalised in both elections - they claimed to make the early running on the basis they had 'a higher ceiling' than Labour and the seat was more like rural west country than home county commuter belt. The struggle for the Lib Dems is relevance and not winning Mid Beds with all the effort they put in shows the next election is binary choice in the vast majority of seats. The Lib Dems hopes rest on Tory collapse in the few dozen seats where they are sufficiently credible to resist the Labour tide. Gaining significantly in "the few dozen seats" would still be a big improvement on 2019, even if many of them get away. Returning to 1997's level seems unlikely, but they could at least win more seats than in 1983-87-92 and rebuild their vote share. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 20, 2023 2:39:52 GMT
For libel reasons or for fear of commercial repercutions from the BJP government? I suspect they'd be wary of focussing on that sort of claim regardless really. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2023 2:43:17 GMT
So Labour wins the doubleheader, the LibDems have something to look forward to, and I advise Tories to start drinking heavily. What do the Lib Dems have to look forward to? They've been marginalised in both elections - they claimed to make the early running on the basis they had 'a higher ceiling' than Labour and the seat was more like rural west country than home county commuter belt. The struggle for the Lib Dems is relevance and not winning Mid Beds with all the effort they put in shows the next election is binary choice in the vast majority of seats. The Lib Dems hopes rest on Tory collapse in the few dozen seats where they are sufficiently credible to resist the Labour tide. The current Lib Dem strategy is explicitly based on the fact that the election is a binary choice in the vast majority of seats. This does not come as a surprise to anyone with a passing interest and a functioning brain. |
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Post by matureleft on Oct 20, 2023 2:44:00 GMT
The fact is that this seat wouldn’t have been a target for either party except in circumstances of both Tory national unpopularity and the behaviour of the individual MPs in this and a couple of other seats. So the parties have a sort of “shot to nothing”. You can understand why both are having a go. But I sense a deeper Labour strategic point that’s being made which is essentially that the Lib Dems should stick to territory that is comfortable for Labour - “blue wall” seats where Labour is clearly out of it. Thus I suspect Labour’s second choice outcome would be a Tory hold demonstrating the limits of Lib Dem reach to them. I thought I’d dig up something I said a few days ago. Clearly a great result (with a pretty reasonable turnout). But part of Labour’s purpose is set out in my last paragraph. That was to set some sensible limits on the party’s informal relationship with the Lib Dems. There are certainly many places where Labour won’t run proper campaigns and where there’s an informal understanding. But Labour will decide those and if the Lib Dems overreach they’ll be resisted. Looking practically there will be plenty of Lib Dem potential targets, probably exceeding the party’s capacity to fight them. They need to focus sharply on those. In 2019 they ran some kamikaze campaigns that helped the Tories. Make wiser choices this time. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 2:44:12 GMT
I was watching the declaration on BBC, and of course I was concentrating on writing the numbers down, so I didn’t see what the kerfuffle was - but I did notice that there was some sort of kerfuffle. Something about Modi murdering? He held up a sign saying something like "Modi murdered my mother" which they quickly zoomed out from. A fluff about nothing. It’s not as if Modi is going to sue for libel. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2023 2:46:12 GMT
It is quite incredible that Labour were able to gain a seat where they had never threatened to even come close before whilst losing votes from the nadir of 2019.
Obviously by-elections have far lower turnout, but it really emphasises the abysmal state of the Conservatives.
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Post by pericles on Oct 20, 2023 2:48:45 GMT
Lmao the Tories got humiliated tonight. Love to see them losing Mid Bedfordshire and with such a huge swing, they can't even win a seat with a 25,000 majority when the opposition vote is split. They are such a toxic government.
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Post by Strontium Dog on Oct 20, 2023 2:59:55 GMT
For libel reasons or for fear of commercial repercutions from the BJP government? India's BJP government or ours? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 20, 2023 3:14:55 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 3:20:50 GMT
I underestimated Labour here. Solid result for them in a. seat they've never won and weren't even close to winning in 1997.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 20, 2023 3:44:16 GMT
Lmao the Tories got humiliated tonight. Love to see them losing Mid Bedfordshire and with such a huge swing, they can't even win a seat with a 25,000 majority when the opposition vote is split. They are such a toxic government. *in a by election The Tories deserve to lose in a landslide, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t take both seats back in the GE. |
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Post by pericles on Oct 20, 2023 3:46:46 GMT
I wonder if MPs will be so desperate and despairing now that they consider another leadership change.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 3:48:02 GMT
Needless to say, the swing here would be enough for Labour to win Wellingborough.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 20, 2023 4:46:16 GMT
Lmao the Tories got humiliated tonight. Love to see them losing Mid Bedfordshire and with such a huge swing, they can't even win a seat with a 25,000 majority when the opposition vote is split. They are such a toxic government. *in a by election The Tories deserve to lose in a landslide, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t take both seats back in the GE. Boundary changes, dear boy. I expect Labour will select Aliatair Strathern for the new Hitchin seat (where he will be living), and to win. |
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bigfatron
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 20, 2023 4:54:48 GMT
The fact is that this seat wouldn’t have been a target for either party except in circumstances of both Tory national unpopularity and the behaviour of the individual MPs in this and a couple of other seats. So the parties have a sort of “shot to nothing”. You can understand why both are having a go. But I sense a deeper Labour strategic point that’s being made which is essentially that the Lib Dems should stick to territory that is comfortable for Labour - “blue wall” seats where Labour is clearly out of it. Thus I suspect Labour’s second choice outcome would be a Tory hold demonstrating the limits of Lib Dem reach to them. I thought I’d dig up something I said a few days ago. Clearly a great result (with a pretty reasonable turnout). But part of Labour’s purpose is set out in my last paragraph. That was to set some sensible limits on the party’s informal relationship with the Lib Dems. There are certainly many places where Labour won’t run proper campaigns and where there’s an informal understanding. But Labour will decide those and if the Lib Dems overreach they’ll be resisted. Looking practically there will be plenty of Lib Dem potential targets, probably exceeding the party’s capacity to fight them. They need to focus sharply on those. In 2019 they ran some kamikaze campaigns that helped the Tories. Make wiser choices this time. Absolutely fair about the Lib Dems in 2019, our campaign made me despair; equally true about Labour, who often appeared more focused on stopping the Lib Dems taking a seat off the Tories than in making their own gains. I rather hope both parties, while taking each other on where appropriate, leave these mistakes firmly in the past. A great night for Labour, many congratulations on two well-run and highly effective campaigns. Now you need to do even more to get yourselves ready to address the utter shambles that you are going to inherit in 2024... |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 20, 2023 5:11:04 GMT
*in a by election The Tories deserve to lose in a landslide, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t take both seats back in the GE. Boundary changes, dear boy. I expect Labour will select Aliatair Strathern for the new Hitchin seat (where he will be living), and to win. But I’m referring to the new Mid Befordshire (which I assume is slightly less Tory inclined than the current/old boundaries) rather than Hitchin. Btw, are we expecting Bim Afolani to switch seats now (As he originally chose Hitchin over Harpenden & Berkhamsted for some reason)? |
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