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Post by michaelarden on Oct 20, 2023 0:34:58 GMT
If Labour have won a majority of 3-4k and the Lib Dem vote is up by 10%+ then the Tory meltdown is truly spectacular. Congrats to our red team - fantastic night for you guys. Majority of 3-4k implies around a 10% majority. Assuming the Lib Dems on 25% (doubled vote share as rumoured) and a decent minor party share given the presence of Mackey, you'd be looking at something along the lines of Lab 35%, Con 25%, LD 25%. Which would mean a close battle for second place. You're forgetting that in Lib Dem terms 'doubling' is a flexible term meaning going up by an amount - so discount their share by 5% so it's 35/30/20. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 20, 2023 0:37:55 GMT
It seemed a remote possibility, but Lab>LDm>Con would be wonderful
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 0:41:45 GMT
Have they said what the turnout is? Not 44%. They have said that in Tamworth it’s 25,630. I want to know the xx,xxx
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Oct 20, 2023 0:41:58 GMT
I'm not sure I can think of any example of the Tories leaning on the “CON VS LAB two horse race” tactic to scare both their cote vote and LD waverers, and yet it only to end up with a Lab win with an increased LD share.
Superb win for Labour, they ran a great campaign and should be proud. But if I’m a Tory I’d be terrified at the thought that voters are so fed up of them that the normal scare tactics simply are not working for them anymore.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 0:47:10 GMT
It seemed a remote possibility, but Lab>LDm>Con would be wonderful In terms of interestingness, I was fantasising the other day about the possibility of c.10% each for Green Reform Independent, and therefore c.20% each for Con Lab LD - and a record-low winning % of say 23% |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 20, 2023 0:51:40 GMT
I'm not sure I can think of any example of the Tories leaning on the “CON VS LAB two horse race” tactic to scare both their cote vote and LD waverers, and yet it only to end up with a Lab win with an increased LD share. Superb win for Labour, they ran a great campaign and should be proud. But if I’m a Tory I’d be terrified at the thought that voters are so fed up of them that the normal scare tactics simply are not working for them anymore. They should find it more terrifying that even without the anti-Con vote solidifying around one party, they still lose. There'll be so many seats where the challenger is much more obvious (and the secondary challenger much less active). Vulnerabilty is going to extend much further down the target list for both Lab and LDm. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,718
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 20, 2023 0:52:01 GMT
I'm not sure I can think of any example of the Tories leaning on the “CON VS LAB two horse race” tactic to scare both their cote vote and LD waverers, and yet it only to end up with a Lab win with an increased LD share. Superb win for Labour, they ran a great campaign and should be proud. But if I’m a Tory I’d be terrified at the thought that voters are so fed up of them that the normal scare tactics simply are not working for them anymore. Shhh!!! Don't jinx it. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Oct 20, 2023 2:14:12 GMT
Mid Beds about to declare.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Oct 20, 2023 2:17:03 GMT
Lab GAIN
Lab - 13,872
Con - 12,680
Lib Dem - 9,420
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 2:18:18 GMT
12680 31.14 Festus Akinbusoye (Con)
101 0.25 Sid Cordle (CPA)
27 0.07 Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description)
1487 3.65 Dave Holland (Reform UK)
9420 23.13 Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem)
249 0.61 Ann Kelly (OMRLP)
1865 4.58 Gareth Mackey (Independent)
24 0.06 Chris Rooney (Mainstream)
732 1.80 Cade Sibley (Green)
13872 34.07 Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab)
63 0.15 Alberto George Thomas (Heritage)
93 0.23 Alan Victor (True and Fair)
107 0.26 Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem)
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,430
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2023 2:19:18 GMT
Labour – 13,872 (34.1%)
Conservative - 12,680 (31.1%)
Lib Dem – 9,420 (23.1%)
Gareth Mackie – 1,865 (4.6%)
Reform UK – 1,487 (3.7%)
Green – 732 (1.8%)
OMRLP – 249 (0.6%)
English Democrats – 107 (0.3%)
CPA – 101 (0.2%)
True & Fair – 93 (0.2%)
Heritage – 63 (0.2%)
Ankit Love – 27 (0.1%)
Mainstream – 24 (0.1%)
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,430
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2023 2:19:37 GMT
Survation's poll was pretty good
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 20, 2023 2:20:31 GMT
I noticed Sky News really struggling to zoom in fast enough to hide the libellous paper held by the Emporer of India
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Post by brianj on Oct 20, 2023 2:20:48 GMT
So Labour wins the doubleheader, the LibDems have something to look forward to, and I advise Tories to start drinking heavily.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 2:22:35 GMT
This is a very important win. Bit because it says anything about the constituency or about similar constituencies, but because there are lots I towns with similarities to places like Barton-le-Clay, Flitwick, and the other towns in this seat and if they have started voting against the Tories it could make a big difference in a lot of constituencies
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 20, 2023 2:25:59 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 2:29:17 GMT
I noticed Sky News really struggling to zoom in fast enough to hide the libellous paper held by the Emporer of India I was watching the declaration on BBC, and of course I was concentrating on writing the numbers down, so I didn’t see what the kerfuffle was - but I did notice that there was some sort of kerfuffle. Something about Modi murdering? |
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 20, 2023 2:29:51 GMT
So Labour wins the doubleheader, the LibDems have something to look forward to, and I advise Tories to start drinking heavily. What do the Lib Dems have to look forward to? They've been marginalised in both elections - they claimed to make the early running on the basis they had 'a higher ceiling' than Labour and the seat was more like rural west country than home county commuter belt. The struggle for the Lib Dems is relevance and not winning Mid Beds with all the effort they put in shows the next election is binary choice in the vast majority of seats. The Lib Dems hopes rest on Tory collapse in the few dozen seats where they are sufficiently credible to resist the Labour tide. |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 2:31:22 GMT
I noticed Sky News really struggling to zoom in fast enough to hide the libellous paper held by the Emporer of IndiaFact check; I dont think that he's actually The Emperor of India  |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 20, 2023 2:32:49 GMT
So Labour wins the doubleheader, the LibDems have something to look forward to, and I advise Tories to start drinking heavily. What do you mean, start? |
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