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Post by michaelarden on Oct 19, 2023 23:37:01 GMT
Ironic that Russell Beard is clean-shaven. As was ZZ Top drummer Frank Beard. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,431 
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Post by iain on Oct 19, 2023 23:37:45 GMT
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Post by phil156 on Oct 19, 2023 23:42:00 GMT
Turnout is 44%
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,431
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Post by iain on Oct 19, 2023 23:46:39 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 19, 2023 23:47:37 GMT
If the Dribbling Lemmings are saying that they’re doing well in challenging the Conservative Party in the villages, that’s their way of admitting that they’re completely rubbish in the towns. My joy at the Lib Dems coming third will outweigh my delight / disappointment about Conservative / Labour winning / losing / whatever. If the Lib Dems manage to come 2nd or 1st, my annoyance will outweigh my delight at the Conservative Party winning. Have you had. look at this constituency and worked out how much of it is in the towns? |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 19, 2023 23:50:38 GMT
44.09% acc to Britain Elects, which I reckon makes turnout 38709?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 19, 2023 23:54:00 GMT
"Lib Dem sources" saying same to Sky.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Oct 19, 2023 23:54:35 GMT
Labour now 6/1 on with Betfair!
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 20, 2023 0:02:32 GMT
"Lib Dem sources" saying same to Sky. I'd back that to be right if Coates says we're saying so. |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 0:07:52 GMT
Figures to listen out for. Based on the turnout of 38709:
25% = 9678
30% = 11613
35% = 13548
40% = 15484
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 0:13:56 GMT
"Lib Dem sources" saying same to Sky. If that’s accurate, it would make the winning post about 13,000 Con 13k Lab 13k LD 9k Others 3k |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,718
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 20, 2023 0:19:01 GMT
This would shock me:
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Post by greyfriar on Oct 20, 2023 0:20:55 GMT
Would be a deserved bloody nose under the circumstances. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,431
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2023 0:21:04 GMT
If Labour have won a majority of 3-4k and the Lib Dem vote is up by 10%+ then the Tory meltdown is truly spectacular.
Congrats to our red team - fantastic night for you guys.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,718
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 20, 2023 0:22:49 GMT
If Labour have won a majority of 3-4k and the Lib Dem vote is up by 10%+ then the Tory meltdown is truly spectacular. Congrats to our red team - fantastic night for you guys. I am covering my ears, spinning round 4 times, whilst shouting "La la la la" and then spitting in the wind. Don't jinx it!!! |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,034
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Post by nyx on Oct 20, 2023 0:24:32 GMT
If Labour have won a majority of 3-4k and the Lib Dem vote is up by 10%+ then the Tory meltdown is truly spectacular. Congrats to our red team - fantastic night for you guys. Majority of 3-4k implies around a 10% majority. Assuming the Lib Dems on 25% (doubled vote share as rumoured) and a decent minor party share given the presence of Mackey, you'd be looking at something along the lines of Lab 35%, Con 25%, LD 25%. Which would mean a close battle for second place. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
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Post by ricmk on Oct 20, 2023 0:26:49 GMT
I was about to post the huge congratulations to the Labour posters *if* the rumours are true - but iain got there ahead of me. 2 quick thoughts: 1) I can't tell you how pleased I am that the Tory all out NIMBY campaign has fallen flat on its face. Next time the blue team tell you that they are the ones serious about building houses, just laugh. 2) Lib Dem by-election tactics that have worked so well in a straight fight against the Tories, just couldn't pivot to a genuine three way contest - they never found a way to really make an impact against Labour and looks like they just got muscled out. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,718
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 20, 2023 0:28:29 GMT
If Labour have won a majority of 3-4k and the Lib Dem vote is up by 10%+ then the Tory meltdown is truly spectacular. Congrats to our red team - fantastic night for you guys. Majority of 3-4k implies around a 10% majority. Assuming the Lib Dems on 25% (doubled vote share as rumoured) and a decent minor party share given the presence of Mackey, you'd be looking at something along the lines of Lab 35%, Con 25%, LD 25%. Which would mean a close battle for second place. I reckon Labour, and thus Con, will be higher, and the LD on about 24%. So Labour nearer to 38%, Tories 30%, LD 24%. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,718
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 20, 2023 0:29:56 GMT
I was about to post the huge congratulations to the Labour posters *if* the rumours are true - but iain got there ahead of me. 2 quick thoughts: 1) I can't tell you how pleased I am that the Tory all out NIMBY campaign has fallen flat on its face. Next time the blue team tell you that they are the ones serious about building houses, just laugh. 2) Lib Dem by-election tactics that have worked so well in a straight fight against the Tories, just couldn't pivot to a genuine three way contest - they never found a way to really make an impact against Labour and looks like they just got muscled out. As I have suggested more than once, Alistair Strathern was probably the perfect candidate. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 20, 2023 0:32:43 GMT
Majority of 3-4k implies around a 10% majority. Assuming the Lib Dems on 25% (doubled vote share as rumoured) and a decent minor party share given the presence of Mackey, you'd be looking at something along the lines of Lab 35%, Con 25%, LD 25%. Which would mean a close battle for second place. I reckon Labour, and thus Con, will be higher, and the LD on about 24%. So Labour nearer to 38%, Tories 30%, LD 24%. Sounds consistent with our "mid-to-low 20s" line. |
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