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Post by andrewp on Jun 10, 2023 10:10:16 GMT
Like one or two others have said, I don’t understand why/ if Labour don’t have a serious go at Mid Bedfordshire. Uxbridge should be in the bag without too much campaigning, Mid Bedfordshire is within easy campaigning distance of London. The 1 each with the Lib Dem’s narrative is a bit of an easy cop out. ( that was much more understandable when it was Tiverton and Wakefield) What better way to announce your going to win the general election by gaining a safe Tory seat in a by election, something Labour haven’t done since 1997. If you split the Lab/ LD vote and the Tories hold on with 35%, they’ve still got Uxbridge in the bag and it might help the tactical voting message for the GE.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 10, 2023 10:22:53 GMT
Officially, both Labour and the LibDems are fighting both of yesterday's byelections seriously. In between the lines, it is already obvious that the LibDems are going to concentrate on this one, whilst Labour get Uxbridge mostly to themselves. And when Rutherglen comes later on, both the Tories and Lib Dems will virtually give Labour a free run with a mutual desire to see the SNP further damaged |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 10, 2023 10:23:02 GMT
Labour will be more cautious about Uxbridge than that, not least because they have failed to win the seat not once but twice at byelections within living memory - the second time, in mid-1997, when new PM Blair was massively popular. That was partly because they messed the candidate selection up, fortunately this time they already have somebody ready to go  As for Mid Beds, yes Labour were second last time - but as with North Shropshire and Tiverton the *potential* LibDem ceiling here is much higher than theirs. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 10, 2023 10:28:50 GMT
Labour will be more cautious about Uxbridge than that, not least because they have failed to win the seat not once but twice at byelections within living memory - the second time, in mid-1997, when new PM Blair was massively popular. That was partly because they messed the candidate selection up, fortunately this time they already have somebody ready to go As for Mid Beds, yes Labour were second last time - but as with North Shropshire and Tiverton the *potential* LibDem ceiling here is much higher than theirs. I do get the argument about the ceiling in Mid Bedfordshire and I agree that there is one, but the Labour ceiling in Mid Bedfordshire is higher than in North Shropshire or Tiverton I would have thought. I don’t think they could win either of those, but surely 40% and a win here is achievable?I also agree that if Labour ‘let’ the Lib Dem’s have it, the Lib Dem’s will win comfortably, but I was Labour I’d want to have a damn good go at it- 40% is surely acheivable? |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 10, 2023 10:29:25 GMT
Like one or two others have said, I don’t understand why/ if Labour don’t have a serious go at Mid Bedfordshire. Uxbridge should be in the bag without too much campaigning, Mid Bedfordshire is within easy campaigning distance of London. The 1 each with the Lib Dem’s narrative is a bit of an easy cop out. ( that was much more understandable when it was Tiverton and Wakefield) What better way to announce your going to win the general election by gaining a safe Tory seat in a by election, something Labour haven’t done since 1997. If you split the Lab/ LD vote and the Tories hold on with 35%, they’ve still got Uxbridge in the bag and it might help the tactical voting message for the GE. Have Labour ever won a seat in a by-election which was as much as a long shot for them as Mid Beds? Their three gains in the 1992-97 Parliament were all very impressive, but more so in the margin of victory than winning the seats themselves. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 10, 2023 10:33:34 GMT
I think we might have to go back to before the 1945 GE for that - Liverpool Wavertree in 1935 certainly stands out.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 10, 2023 10:37:59 GMT
South Dorset in 1962 also comes to mind.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 10, 2023 10:48:21 GMT
Labour will be more cautious about Uxbridge than that, not least because they have failed to win the seat not once but twice at byelections within living memory - the second time, in mid-1997, when new PM Blair was massively popular. That was partly because they messed the candidate selection up, fortunately this time they already have somebody ready to go As for Mid Beds, yes Labour were second last time - but as with North Shropshire and Tiverton the *potential* LibDem ceiling here is much higher than theirs. Had North Shropshire taken place post mid-2022 Labour would probably have been a much more serious contender and the LDs would have faced more of an uphill battle to emerge as the clear anti-Tory option. Re-mid Beds it is being reported that Labour's Eastern region has already sent out several emails asking for help. . Reference has also been made to a Savanta MRP survey from December 2022 which came up with Lab 41 Con 38.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 10, 2023 10:50:19 GMT
Liverpool Wavertree 1935 and South Dorset 1962 both had the Conservative vote badly splat by an Independent Conservative candidate (in both cases the Independent Conservative vote was more than 5 times the margin of defeat for the Conservative candidate).
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 10, 2023 10:52:57 GMT
The former Uxbridge seat had been drifting away from Labour over the years. Until the Tories gained the seat in 1959 it had been a Labour-leaning marginal, but the Tories held on in 1964 with Labour only winning narrowly in 1966. The Tories easily won it back in 1970 - and Labour failed to win there again. Adding South Ruislip will have strengthened the Tories quite a bit.
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Post by pepperminttea on Jun 10, 2023 11:12:34 GMT
Labour will be more cautious about Uxbridge than that, not least because they have failed to win the seat not once but twice at byelections within living memory - the second time, in mid-1997, when new PM Blair was massively popular. That was partly because they messed the candidate selection up, fortunately this time they already have somebody ready to go As for Mid Beds, yes Labour were second last time - but as with North Shropshire and Tiverton the *potential* LibDem ceiling here is much higher than theirs. The council election result in Uxbridge & South Ruislip last year were also not that great (only winning 3 council seats). Also Sadiq Khan and the Labour London administration are very unpopular in this part of the Capital which could be of significant help to the Tories if they can shift the conversation away from BoJo/national politics to local issues (primarily ULEZ expansion). Don't get me wrong I think Labour will win this by-election but they are correct to be cautious. As for Mid Bedfordshire, I don't think Labour remotely structurally in a position to win the 'main opposition to the Tories' argument and thus I think it's pretty likely the Lib Dems will walk the contest once their by-election machine kicks into gear. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 10, 2023 13:05:11 GMT
Selby coming up presumably makes this decision easier for Labour.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 10, 2023 14:50:28 GMT
I can't remember if Ive already said this but didn't labour have some decent council election results in this part of the world in May? They won zero seats in this constituency I've just checked this and it's untrue, but only just. A very small part of the constituency is now in Bedford's Cauldwell ward where Labour hold the seats. (It's about thirty something electors out of 8,000 in the ward) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 10, 2023 14:56:50 GMT
Estimate of 2023 local election voting in this constituency:
C 10,500 (36%)
Ind 8,250 (28.5%)
Lab 5,250 (18%)
L Dem 3,250 (11%)
Green 2,000 (7%)
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 10, 2023 16:01:36 GMT
Apparently Labour members are now being bombarded by emails from Eastern region asking for campaign help.
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Post by batman on Jun 10, 2023 16:35:19 GMT
Apparently Labour members are now being bombarded by emails from Eastern region asking for campaign help. Just checked my inbox. One from Keir Starmer urging me to work in Uxbridge & S Ruislip. Nothing about Mid Beds. It may be different for members in Eastern Region. Certainly am not being bombarded. |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jun 10, 2023 16:43:41 GMT
Labour have made a big online show of being active in the constituency today, all placards and 'We can beat the Tories' Interestingly enough the Lib Dems don't seem to be publicising anything similar - but I know there is plenty of activity going on there right now.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 10, 2023 18:12:23 GMT
Apparently Labour members are now being bombarded by emails from Eastern region asking for campaign help. Just checked my inbox. One from Keir Starmer urging me to work in Uxbridge & S Ruislip. Nothing about Mid Beds. It may be different for members in Eastern Region. Certainly am not being bombarded. I am aware of party members in Essex and Hertfordshire who have had 4 or 5 emails asking for help in MidBeds. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 10, 2023 19:05:32 GMT
Just checked my inbox. One from Keir Starmer urging me to work in Uxbridge & S Ruislip. Nothing about Mid Beds. It may be different for members in Eastern Region. Certainly am not being bombarded. I am aware of party members in Essex and Hertfordshire who have had 4 or 5 emails asking for help in MidBeds. This shows the limitations of regional organisations, especially in such artificla regions as this one. This seat isn't very accessible to most parts of Hertfordshire, let alone Essex. The best and nearest source of Labour activists (apart from Luton and Bedford obviously) would be in Milton Keynes. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 10, 2023 19:19:58 GMT
I am aware of party members in Essex and Hertfordshire who have had 4 or 5 emails asking for help in MidBeds. This shows the limitations of regional organisations, especially in such artificla regions as this one. This seat isn't very accessible to most parts of Hertfordshire, let alone Essex. The best and nearest source of Labour activists (apart from Luton and Bedford obviously) would be in Milton Keynes. I would assume that activists in those areas are receiving similar emails. |
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