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Post by aargauer on Jun 9, 2023 17:13:50 GMT
Why would anyone give a shit about getting a peerage anyway?
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 9, 2023 17:22:02 GMT
Why would anyone give a shit about getting a peerage anyway? Because their entire career trajectory has been devoted to embedding themselves into the core of the establishment. We're hardly short of examples. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 9, 2023 17:28:59 GMT
I am have a theory: the resignation has nothing to do with being left off the Honors list. Johnson has shown her the Privileges committee report. She is standing down to give him a seat. I'm hiding behind the sofa. I got as far as "Johnson has shown her . . . " and couldn't bear the risk of reading any further. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 9, 2023 17:32:02 GMT
I am have a theory: the resignation has nothing to do with being left off the Honors list. Johnson has shown her the Privileges committee report. She is standing down to give him a seat. How does that work then? She resigns her seat; he resigns his seat; then applies for the Mid-B vacancy; gets it and is triumphantly returned. Or something. What could possibly go wrong?  |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,755 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 9, 2023 17:49:07 GMT
Awaiting the announcement but presumably she will be Steward of the Manor of Northstead. I wish the Stewards would actually visit their Manors when appointed. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 9, 2023 17:56:33 GMT
I am have a theory: the resignation has nothing to do with being left off the Honors list. Johnson has shown her the Privileges committee report. She is standing down to give him a seat. ”give him a seat”? What does that mean? He already has a constituency, if that’s what you mean. He’s already / still an MP, so what other “seat” do you mean? |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 9, 2023 17:57:43 GMT
I predict
Lib Dem 48%
Conservative 34%
Labour 11%
Green 3%
Others 4%
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 9, 2023 18:02:40 GMT
Awaiting the announcement but presumably she will be Steward of the Manor of Northstead. I wish the Stewards would actually visit their Manors when appointed. particularly the ones under the lakes |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
Member is Online
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 9, 2023 18:23:54 GMT
I wish the Stewards would actually visit their Manors when appointed. particularly the ones under the lakes The manor house of Northstead is said to have been where Peasholme Park is, in Scarborough. It's great if you like a western take on a Japanese garden. And yes, the centrepiece of the park is a decent sized lake. They stage mock naval battles on it during the holiday season. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 9, 2023 18:24:19 GMT
Has she actually been granted the Stewardship of the Manor of Northstead? I can't see it on the Treasury news page. If she hasn't... There is, however, news on doing business in Iran, which is not a bad read of you have a few minutes to spare. I didn't realise Iran had based its commercial laws on the French commercial code. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 9, 2023 18:32:36 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire is very similar to North Shropshire in 3 key respects (although it is more affluent):
1. Significant residual vote for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
2. Stereotypical safe Conservative seat: large, rural, divided opposition, older mainly owner-occupying population.
3. Voted for Brexit but not by a particularly high margin.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 9, 2023 18:33:26 GMT
Running scared from Team Gina Miller, obviously. He only polled 812 votes there in 2019 and he will likely do worse in the by-election. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 9, 2023 18:38:30 GMT
I think the Lib Dems will piss this.
Won’t be particularly close.
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Post by where2travel on Jun 9, 2023 18:41:15 GMT
Looking back to 2019 is interesting:
Mid Bedfordshire: Con 60, Lab 22, LD 13
North Shropshire: Con 63, Lab 22, LD 10
Incredibly similar with NS the one needing a slightly bigger swing. Circumstances are different, location is different etc etc, but if the Lib Dem by-election machine can even half get going in Mid Beds they should feel very hopeful indeed.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 9, 2023 18:44:34 GMT
I can't remember if Ive already said this but didn't labour have some decent council election results in this part of the world in May?
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 9, 2023 18:51:39 GMT
He only polled 812 votes there in 2019 and he will likely do worse in the by-election. Yes, but he was only standing as an independent then. This time he has the full might of the True and Fair Party behind him! |
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Post by melthamhd94nn on Jun 9, 2023 18:52:03 GMT
Looking back to 2019 is interesting: Mid Bedfordshire: Con 60, Lab 22, LD 13 North Shropshire: Con 63, Lab 22, LD 10 Incredibly similar with NS the one needing a slightly bigger swing. Circumstances are different, location is different etc etc, but if the Lib Dem by-election machine can even half get going in Mid Beds they should feel very hopeful indeed. I had a email about 2 hours ago from the Lib Dem head of campaigns asking for money - and saying that they have a leaflet ready to go and that canvassing already done is looking good. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jun 9, 2023 18:58:11 GMT
This is a place the LDs would be nominal second place anyway if it wasn't for the 2015 wipeout
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Post by johnloony on Jun 9, 2023 19:02:46 GMT
I predict Lib Dem 48% Conservative 34% Labour 11% Green 3% Others 4% By the way, to get my prediction I didn’t do anything more sophisticated than simply to average (approximately) the changes in the share of the vote for the 3 main parties in the by-elections of Tiverton & Honiton, Chesham & Amersham, and Shropshire North. If this had been in the 1993-1996 period, then Labour would have a good chance of winning it by a large margin, but the pattern of 2021-2023 has been that (a) Labour is limited in the amount it can gain vote share, and (b) the Lib Dems start with a big enough share of the vote to make them viable (i.e. the Lib Dems start with 13% rather than 4%). Therefore the voters are “allowed” to swing in vast numbers from both Conservative and Labour to the Lib Dems, where Conservative voters wouldn’t be willing to switch directly to Labour. This sort of thing is one of the things which make me think that the next general election might be more like 1992 than 1997. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jun 9, 2023 19:06:54 GMT
I predict Lib Dem 48% Conservative 34% Labour 11% Green 3% Others 4% By the way, to get my prediction I didn’t do anything more sophisticated than simply to average (approximately) the changes in the share of the vote for the 3 main parties in the by-elections of Tiverton & Honiton, Chesham & Amersham, and Shropshire North. If this had been in the 1993-1996 period, then Labour would have a good chance of winning it by a large margin, but the pattern of 2021-2023 has been that (a) Labour is limited in the amount it can gain vote share, and (b) the Lib Dems start with a big enough share of the vote to make them viable (i.e. the Lib Dems start with 13% rather than 4%). Therefore the voters are “allowed” to swing in vast numbers from both Conservative and Labour to the Lib Dems, where Conservative voters wouldn’t be willing to switch directly to Labour. This sort of thing is one of the things which make me think that the next general election might be more like 1992 than 1997. Had the Shropshire North by election taken place 6 - 12 months later, I suspect Labour would have been a more serious contender there. |
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