Spanish General Election, 2023

[ilerda]

And then 155 really tipped things over the edge, with no way back for relations between pro-independence parties and the central PP.

What’s interesting is that the Catalan PP has a strong tradition of being autonomist/Catalanist and going against the central party. Again, 155 finished that off at least for a time.

[WJ]

The main parties generally like to big up their regionalism credentials. Regionalism sells very well here, so unless you're a party with strong centralising tendencies, such as Vox or Ciudadanos (and even they pay regionalism the meagre lip service) it pays to develop regional branches with some culture of autonomy.

[iain]

PSOE and Junts have apparently reached a deal.

[stb12]

Might any PSOE members rebel over the amnesty?

[iain]

Nov 9, 2023 15:59:28 GMT stb12 said:

Might any PSOE members rebel over the amnesty?

Seems very unlikely. The PSOE 'old guard' are largely against it, but they have been largely sidelined after unsuccessfully attempting to undermine Pedro Sánchez for many years, and I think the PSOE's vetting has gotten a lot better since the Tamayazo scandal in 2003 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2003_Madrilenian_regional_election#Tamayazo_scandal).

[ilerda]

Also the choice they face is get into government off the back of the amnesty, or go to another election where the right will use the amnesty to keep them out of power.

[stb12]

Nov 9, 2023 16:04:37 GMT iain said:

Nov 9, 2023 15:59:28 GMT stb12 said:

Might any PSOE members rebel over the amnesty?

Seems very unlikely. The PSOE 'old guard' are largely against it, but they have been largely sidelined after unsuccessfully attempting to undermine Pedro Sánchez for many years, and I think the PSOE's vetting has gotten a lot better since the Tamayazo scandal in 2003 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2003_Madrilenian_regional_election#Tamayazo_scandal).

The problem I think they have with this is what happens if something similar is tried again in the foreseeable future? Regardless of how you view the PP governments handling of the Catalan crisis, heavy handedness etc it is a fact that what was tried by Puigdemont was illegal. Have any guarantees been given concerning any future independence attempts?

[iain]

Nov 9, 2023 16:10:21 GMT ilerda said:

Also the choice they face is get into government off the back of the amnesty, or go to another election where the right will use the amnesty to keep them out of power.

Yep - if PSOE wanted another election then they couldn't afford for things to drag on this long. They have lost the position of strength they had for another election.

Nov 9, 2023 16:11:04 GMT stb12 said:

Nov 9, 2023 16:04:37 GMT iain said:

Seems very unlikely. The PSOE 'old guard' are largely against it, but they have been largely sidelined after unsuccessfully attempting to undermine Pedro Sánchez for many years, and I think the PSOE's vetting has gotten a lot better since the Tamayazo scandal in 2003 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2003_Madrilenian_regional_election#Tamayazo_scandal).

The problem I think they have with this is what happens if something similar is tried again in the foreseeable future? Regardless of how you view the PP governments handling of the Catalan crisis, heavy handedness etc it is a fact that what was tried by Puigdemont was illegal. Have any guarantees been given concerning any future independence attempts?

We don't yet know exactly what is in the agreement. Apparently it doesn't include named people, but instead sets some broad criteria for amnesty for those involved "directly or indirectly" to the independence process between 2012 and 2023, which will be interpreted by judges.

[iain]

[observer]

Vox are to take the issue to the Supreme Court

[iain]

A brief overview of the PSOE deals with different parties in this thread:

[ilerda]

I understand why he’s done it, but this has to be one of the most hilariously egregious examples of putting your own career ahead of political stability in an attempt to form a government we’ve seen for a very long time.

I can only see this ending in disaster, and another election which the right fights on the Catalan issue.

[iain]

Nov 11, 2023 10:12:40 GMT ilerda said:

I understand why he’s done it, but this has to be one of the most hilariously egregious examples of putting your own career ahead of political stability in an attempt to form a government we’ve seen for a very long time.

I can only see this ending in disaster, and another election which the right fights on the Catalan issue.

Though that’s exactly what everyone said last time too.

[The Bishop]

The mindless violence we saw this week can only make Vox in particular even more toxic to a lot of voters. Sanchez may have got lucky with his opponents, again.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Nov 11, 2023 12:16:12 GMT The Bishop said:

The mindless violence we saw this week can only make Vox in particular even more toxic to a lot of voters. Sanchez may have got lucky with his opponents, again.

But he might have mortgaged his future. Large parts of the PSOE base will be raging. If you're a PSOE member in Catalonia or Valencia, you won't be happy.

Felipe Gonzalez has intervened now as well. When did he last do that? For all of his flaws, when he speaks, people listen.

[iain]

Nov 11, 2023 18:45:41 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Felipe Gonzalez has intervened now as well. When did he last do that? For all of his flaws, when he speaks, people listen.

He does it quite often. He is not a fan of Sánchez, and has made that clear for quite some time.

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 11, 2023 10:15:30 GMT iain said:

Nov 11, 2023 10:12:40 GMT ilerda said:

I understand why he’s done it, but this has to be one of the most hilariously egregious examples of putting your own career ahead of political stability in an attempt to form a government we’ve seen for a very long time.

I can only see this ending in disaster, and another election which the right fights on the Catalan issue.

Though that’s exactly what everyone said last time too.

Yet, last time PSOE campaigned on not granting any amnesty.
AnyWay strange, that Sanchez didn't long for snapElections (or does he and a finally failing formation of a new government is just theatre?) - this government will collapse early enough, but not early enough for Mrs.Ayuso not replacing Mr.Boring. (Although admittingly it could be, that she will be too toxic outside Madrid.)

[WJ]

Nov 11, 2023 18:45:41 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Nov 11, 2023 12:16:12 GMT The Bishop said:

The mindless violence we saw this week can only make Vox in particular even more toxic to a lot of voters. Sanchez may have got lucky with his opponents, again.

But he might have mortgaged his future. Large parts of the PSOE base will be raging. If you're a PSOE member in Catalonia or Valencia, you won't be happy.

Felipe Gonzalez has intervened now as well. When did he last do that? For all of his flaws, when he speaks, people listen.

I think the problems won't be so much in the base, but the section of the left who went over to Ciudadanos and then returned to the PSOE.

It's curious. Maybe I'm just not plugged into the sentiment enough here yet. But there's been very little in the way of disruption or comment up here in Asturias. Yesterday as I walked up to the parliament building in Oviedo I could hear a protest going on with loud hailers and a minor police presence. But it turned out to be a rally for Palestine, not a PP/Vox protest against Sánchez. While Asturias generally contains many of those core PSOE voters, Oviedo is definitely a blue island in a sea of red, but there's nothing going on here at all.

[WJ]

Having said that, I'm in Gijón right now and just overheard someone saying they're going to a protest outside the city's PSOE office.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Nov 9, 2023 20:23:09 GMT iain said:

Not enough. There should be a recognition of the will of the Catalan people and a willingness to dismantle the Franquista institutions that stand in its way. There should also be a willingness to send members of those institutions to stand trial in the Hague for their actions in 2017.