Spanish General Election, 2023

[WJ]

PM Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) has called a snap, early election following the broadly mediocre local election results for the left bloc from this weekend. I call it a snap, early election, but in reality it's only about 5 months earlier than the latest date an election could be held, and it hasn't been triggered by something dramatic in government.

Sánchez has been in power for almost 5 years now and he has broadly overseen stable government in Spain. That's not to say that there haven't been problems, especially in the latter part of his tenure. A notable, recent example has been a sexual violence law which intended to strengthen sentencing for abusers, but has actually led to some abusers being released from prison early. However, he must be credited for steadying and unifying Spain after the chaotic period of government under Rajoy, particularly with regards to separatist movements in Catalonia. That being said, he is unlikely to remain in post after July as the PP have (despite some internal ructions) seen an increase in their popularity over the last 18 months and the populist, hard-right VOX continue to gain strength. The far-left is splintered as ever, and Podemos now have to compete with Sumar. The various micro-parties under each banner are likely to see a reduction in seats, while the centrist Ciudadanos are likely to be completely wiped out.

There will be some tricky parliamentary arithmetic ahead to gain the majority needed (125 seats). PSOE/Podemos/Sumar are unlikely to reach that threshold, even if they also have to rely on larger regionalist parties such as Catalonia's ERC. But things aren't necessarily rosy for the right either. The PP have made too many enemies for the time being with some of the more right-leaning regionalists, such as the Basque National Party. The PP have managed to work efficiently in several regions with Vox, but taking that coalition national will not be as easy.

In short, it'll shape up to be an interesting election all round and if things go tits-up with the numbers, we cannot exclude a second run at things a few months later, as happened in 2019.

[iain]

Coalitions of parties have 10 days to register for the elections. As I said in the other thread, this process is key this time around:

If Sumar and Podemos can agree to work together, we are in for a very competitive election, with the right narrowly favoured. If they end up running separate lists then a PP-Vox majority looks extremely likely.


Despite the terrible drafting of the (long overdue) ‘no means no’ law - now fixed - the Sánchez government has been very successful by any reasonable standard. They have got a lot done despite having to get agreements past a plethora of smaller parties, but have failed to effectively sell their achievements, and not convinced the Spanish people as to why they are working with peripheral nationalists.

The reality is, though, that the government was always fighting an uphill battle. The right had an historically inefficient vote last time when they ‘should’ have won, and that seems likely to correct itself this time around.

[iain]

The other thing to note - while they would rather the far left sorted itself out and the government continued, Sánchez probably wouldn’t mind an implosion, leaving PSOE as the sole force on the left (possibly gaining voteshare) even in defeat.

[Georg Ebner]

May 29, 2023 15:39:21 GMT WJ said:

PM Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) has called a snap, early election following the broadly mediocre local election results for the left bloc from this weekend. I call it a snap, early election, but in reality it's only about 5 months earlier than the latest date an election could be held, and it hasn't been triggered by something dramatic in government.

Sánchez has been in power for almost 5 years now and he has broadly overseen stable government in Spain. That's not to say that there haven't been problems, especially in the latter part of his tenure. A notable, recent example has been a sexual violence law which intended to strengthen sentencing for abusers, but has actually led to some abusers being released from prison early. However, he must be credited for steadying and unifying Spain after the chaotic period of government under Rajoy, particularly with regards to separatist movements in Catalonia. That being said, he is unlikely to remain in post after July as the PP have (despite some internal ructions) seen an increase in their popularity over the last 18 months and the populist, hard-right VOX continue to gain strength. The far-left is splintered as ever, and Podemos now have to compete with Sumar. The various micro-parties under each banner are likely to see a reduction in seats, while the centrist Ciudadanos are likely to be completely wiped out.

There will be some tricky parliamentary arithmetic ahead to gain the majority needed (125 seats). PSOE/Podemos/Sumar are unlikely to reach that threshold, even if they also have to rely on larger regionalist parties such as Catalonia's ERC. But things aren't necessarily rosy for the right either. The PP have made too many enemies for the time being with some of the more right-leaning regionalists, such as the Basque National Party. The PP have managed to work efficiently in several regions with Vox, but taking that coalition national will not be as easy.

In short, it'll shape up to be an interesting election all round and if things go tits-up with the numbers, we cannot exclude a second run at things a few months later, as happened in 2019.

To be pedantic: 175+1. PP&Vox have indeed nearly no regionalists for support: Navarre's UPN, perhaps Canary's CCA.

[iain]

May 29, 2023 17:59:51 GMT Georg Ebner said:

To be pedantic: 175+1. PP&Vox have indeed nearly no regionalists for support: Navarre's UPN, perhaps Canary's CCA.

Canarian Coalition have said no to Vox. They’ll get Foro Asturias though (but they’ll probably run on a list with PP anyway).

[mrpastelito]

May 29, 2023 18:18:39 GMT iain said:

May 29, 2023 17:59:51 GMT Georg Ebner said:

To be pedantic: 175+1. PP&Vox have indeed nearly no regionalists for support: Navarre's UPN, perhaps Canary's CCA.

Canarian Coalition have said no to Vox. They’ll get Foro Asturias though (but they’ll probably run on a list with PP anyway).

Hard to imagine regionalists striking a deal with an authoritarian centralist outfit like Vox. Unless of course they get Vox to support further devolution

[Georg Ebner]

May 29, 2023 18:18:39 GMT iain said:

May 29, 2023 17:59:51 GMT Georg Ebner said:

To be pedantic: 175+1. PP&Vox have indeed nearly no regionalists for support: Navarre's UPN, perhaps Canary's CCA.

Canarian Coalition have said no to Vox. They’ll get Foro Asturias though (but they’ll probably run on a list with PP anyway).

Yes, CC said so - but have nonetheless been hostile towards the incumbent government and voted with PP&VOX.
Not sure, that FA will get a seat. 

[WJ]

Foro is an interesting one. They're a bit different to the usual regionalist parties in that they are basically perfectly happy with the devolution settlement. But they know that attaching the name "Asturias" to anything in Asturias is a vote winner. Asturians identify very strongly with their province, as much as Galicians or Catalans I'd say. I don't believe that Foro really care about, say, the promotion and elevation of Asturian as a national language, which is one of the things that is sometimes mentioned as needed in conversations in Asturias. So I can perfectly see how they'd be more comfortable attaching themselves to a coalition that includes Vox than other regionalist parties. Though, as Georg says, it's probably a moot point. I'd say it's 50/50 whether they get a seat or not.

[iain]

May 29, 2023 16:19:19 GMT iain said:

The reality is, though, that the government was always fighting an uphill battle. The right had an historically inefficient vote last time when they ‘should’ have won, and that seems likely to correct itself this time around.

To add to this point, in November 2019 the right ‘bloc’ led in 37 provinces compared with just 15* for the left (ignoring nationalists). Of those 15 the left won the majority of seats in 12, with the right taking more in 1 (Valencia), and the seats splitting equally in 2 (Navarra and Santa Cruz de Tenerife). On the other hand, the right only won more seats in 18 of the 37 provinces where they took more votes, whilst the spoils split equally in 13 and the left won more seats in 6 (Castellon, Cuenca, Granada, Huelva, Huesca, Jaen).


So a 37-15 split in votes became a 19-18-15 split in seats.

*4xCatalonia, 3xBasque, 2xCanaries, Navarra, Asturias, A Coruna, Pontevedra, Valencia, Sevilla

[The Bishop]

Ciudadanos announce they will not contest the forthcoming election, and their outright extinction might not be far away now.

(though that does, of course, mean the above poll needs resetting)

[Devil Wincarnate]

May 30, 2023 12:30:22 GMT The Bishop said:

Ciudadanos announce they will not contest the forthcoming election, and their outright extinction might not be far away now.

(though that does, of course, mean the above poll needs resetting)

Great news for the PP. Even if Ciudadanos were on their way out.

[WJ]

Not terrible news for the PSOE either. Plenty of centrist types who would be ambivalent about a PP government, but massively opposed to Vox being anywhere near the reins of power.

[Georg Ebner]

Few years ago some ridiculed it as "a silly stereotype", that centrist parties cannot flourish in a country like Spain - but Cs in double digits was based on them being harder in the Catalan question*. Plus the series of UCD, CDS, UPyD and now Cs is just telling, isn't it?
*what explains this chart on the origin of VOX-candidates:

[therealriga]

Ultimately, it looks like Ciudadanos overreached when they decided to expand outside their base of Catalonia. They were doing fine there as a party opposed to Catalan nationalism but with more liberal and centrist policies than the PP. In Catalonia such a centre party doesn't have to make the awkward choice of whether to back a left or right party, since the PP usually do poorly there. It's usually a straight choice between PSOE or Catalan nationalists. The voters who they siphoned off from the PP usually grudgingly accepted Cs backing the PSOE as the lesser of two evils.

The problem came when they were left holding the balance of power outside Catalonia and were forced to take sides. They always seemed to take more voters from the PP than PSOE due to their constitutional stances and going into government with the latter alienated most of their voters, making a policy of equidistance impossible. Ditching equidistance cost them the support of ex-PSOE voters and left them as a right-leaning party opposed to Catalan nationalism, a market the PP already had covered.  In the end, it's a circle they were never able to square.

[WJ]

May 30, 2023 13:41:00 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Few years ago some ridiculed it as "a silly stereotype", that centrist parties cannot flourish in a country like Spain - but Cs in double digits was based on them being harder in the Catalan question*. Plus the series of UCD, CDS, UPyD and now Cs is just telling, isn't it?
*what explains this chart on the origin of VOX-candidates:

The text on that is Catalan, so am I right in assuming that this is just voters from Catalonia? If so, I can believe that Vox would be a popular home for C voters due to their opposition to independence. Beyond Catalonia, I think the picture would be quite different.

[Georg Ebner]

In various media appeared extraPolations of the local elections for the general election.
El Diario:

El Mundo:

El Pais:

[WJ]

New poll to account for the loss of Ciudadanos.

[therealriga]

May 30, 2023 15:06:12 GMT WJ said:

May 30, 2023 13:41:00 GMT Georg Ebner said:

The text on that is Catalan, so am I right in assuming that this is just voters from Catalonia? If so, I can believe that Vox would be a popular home for C voters due to their opposition to independence. Beyond Catalonia, I think the picture would be quite different.

Well that is the origin of Vox candidates, not their votes. Given that that covers Catalan parties like Som Identitaris and local groups from L'Hospitalet, Vilanova i la Geltru and Balenya, it's 99% certain it's just Catalonia. In fact, I'd go further and say it's probably Barcelona province only, since those towns are located there.

[Deleted]

Who or what is/are Sumar?

[batman]

are they icumen in, more to the point?