Spanish General Election, 2023

[The Bishop]

May 31, 2023 10:16:36 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Who or what is/are Sumar?

Left wing party containing disillusioned elements of both PSOE and Podemos, with quite a charismatic leader in Yolanda Diaz.

[iain]

May 31, 2023 10:16:36 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Who or what is/are Sumar?

It's a new electoral platform which is supposed to encompass all the forces to the left of PSOE.

Basically, when Pablo Iglesias (former leader of Podemos) left electoral politics his anointed successor was Yolanda Díaz, the relatively popular Minister of Labour. The problem with this was that whilst Díaz was elected as part of Unidas Podemos (the alliance of several parties) she wasn't a part of Podemos (the party).

Rather than continue under the Unidas Podemos banner, she decided to try and form a new platform which would encompass not just the parties involved in Unidas Podemos, but also those who had latterly splintered off, for instance Más Madrid and Compromís. This was basically a sensible idea, but Podemos (the party) have been reluctant to join an alliance where they will no longer be the hegemonic force.

[Devil Wincarnate]

May 31, 2023 10:59:16 GMT iain said:

May 31, 2023 10:16:36 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Who or what is/are Sumar?

It's a new electoral platform which is supposed to encompass all the forces to the left of PSOE.

Basically, when Pablo Iglesias (former leader of Podemos) left electoral politics his anointed successor was Yolanda Díaz, the relatively popular Minister of Labour. The problem with this was that whilst Díaz was elected as part of Unidas Podemos (the alliance of several parties) she wasn't a part of Podemos (the party).

Rather than continue under the Unidas Podemos banner, she decided to try and form a new platform which would encompass not just the parties involved in Unidas Podemos, but also those who had latterly splintered off, for instance Más Madrid and Compromís. This was basically a sensible idea, but Podemos (the party) have been reluctant to join an alliance where they will no longer be the hegemonic force.

Both Diaz and the Mas Madrid crowd seem like fairly pragmatic people. Especially the latter, who are heavily made up of people who realised Iglesias was a difficult man to deal with.

[AdminSTB]

May 31, 2023 11:39:20 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Both Diaz and the Mas Madrid crowd seem like fairly pragmatic people. Especially the latter, who are heavily made up of people who realised Iglesias was a difficult man to deal with.

He was too busy beginning the beguine.

[AdminSTB]

Feijoo has reiterated on Telecinco today that the PP will attempt to govern alone nationally, even if it means sacrificing possible coalitions with Vox in Aragon and Extremadura. He has also reiterated his position that the party with the most votes (not seats which is the crucial matter in Extremadura where the PP and PSOE are tied on seats but the PSOE was ahead on votes) should be the one to govern in an apparent response to Vox stating that the voters want coalitions where the PP cannot govern alone. He's also referred to Vox as being a 'different type of political project' (my translation which may not be 100%, I might be missing some subtext there) which looks like an attempt to put some distance between him and Abascal. More interestingly, the PP seem to have dropped 'sanchismo' and have started referring to the PSOE as having been 'podemized'. TVE coverage here

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 1, 2023 19:04:55 GMT AdminSTB said:

Feijoo has reiterated on Telecinco today that the PP will attempt to govern alone nationally, even if it means sacrificing possible coalitions with Vox in Aragon and Extremadura. He has also reiterated his position that the party with the most votes (not seats which is the crucial matter in Extremadura where the PP and PSOE are tied on seats but the PSOE was ahead on votes) should be the one to govern in an apparent response to Vox stating that the voters want coalitions where the PP cannot govern alone. He's also referred to Vox as being a 'different type of political project' (my translation which may not be 100%, I might be missing some subtext there) which looks like an attempt to put some distance between him and Abascal. More interestingly, the PP seem to have dropped 'sanchismo' and have started referring to the PSOE as having been 'podemized'. TVE coverage here

Interesting, albeit per se not quite surprising: I was already wondering, whether he would really be willing to adapt&submit into an "inevitable" coalition with Vox (if they had the numbers, what is itself already very questionable). 

[Georg Ebner]

Cities:

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 1, 2023 18:49:52 GMT AdminSTB said:

May 31, 2023 11:39:20 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Both Diaz and the Mas Madrid crowd seem like fairly pragmatic people. Especially the latter, who are heavily made up of people who realised Iglesias was a difficult man to deal with.

He was too busy beginning the beguine.

Julio and Pablo. Only the former turned out to be a keeper.

[iain]

Jun 1, 2023 19:04:55 GMT AdminSTB said:

Feijoo has reiterated on Telecinco today that the PP will attempt to govern alone nationally, even if it means sacrificing possible coalitions with Vox in Aragon and Extremadura.

Possibly enough to reassure people who want to believe it, but it’s transparently not true. Whether Vox is formally in coalition or not, they will de facto be governing together in the event of a right-bloc victory.

It doesn’t look like PP will be anywhere near large enough to govern with only the help of small, regional parties, but the chances of that happening are laughable now anyway. Not so long ago they governed with the support of the Basque PNV and Catalan CiU (as was, the space now taken by Junts), but both those parties would probably rather drink acid than entertain deals with the PP’s current incarnation.

[stb12]

Was much of the PP's toxicity not to do with Rajoy's corruption issues? And he's long gone now

[iain]

In general yes, but in terms of the peripheral nationalists it is more to do with his cack-handed response to the Catalan issue, and the still-ongoing fallout.

Sánchez has done a pretty good job at defusing the situation, but on the right of the spectrum things remain as deranged as ever. The PP, Vox and Ciudadanos have been competing for a while on who can be the most obnoxious Castilian nationalists, and whilst Feijóo isn’t quite so hysterical, most of his party very much is. After all, the main attack on ‘sanchismo’ is that he has dared to deal with Catalan and Basque nationalist parties - despite this having been commonplace in both PP and PSOE administrations since the return of democracy.

[therealriga]

May 31, 2023 10:59:16 GMT iain said:

May 31, 2023 10:16:36 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Who or what is/are Sumar?

Rather than continue under the Unidas Podemos banner, she decided to try and form a new platform which would encompass not just the parties involved in Unidas Podemos, but also those who had latterly splintered off, for instance Más Madrid and Compromís. This was basically a sensible idea, but Podemos (the party) have been reluctant to join an alliance where they will no longer be the hegemonic force.

Compromís isn't a Podemos splinter at all. Podemos was only formed in 2014, while Compromís were already standing long before that, in the 2007 Valencian regional election. Compromís was a coalition formed by the Bloc Nacionalista Valencià (BNV) and smaller parties. The BNV had been formed in 1989 as a merger of Unitat del Poble Valencià (themselves a merger of smaller parties in the early 1980s) and smaller groups. Compromís rejected several offers from Podemos to form an electoral alliance so it's a success for Diaz to get them involved.

[ilerda]

Now the leader of Izquierda Unida and current Minister for Consumer Affairs Alberto Garzón has announced that he won’t contest the election but will continue to be the national coordinator for IU.

Interesting as not only is IU fully signed up to Sumar (leaving behind its old alliance with Podemos), but one of the key factors in setting up Sumar was that Diaz is a member of the Communist Party (part of IU), not of Podemos.

[iain]

Jun 2, 2023 6:21:48 GMT therealriga said:

May 31, 2023 10:59:16 GMT iain said:

Rather than continue under the Unidas Podemos banner, she decided to try and form a new platform which would encompass not just the parties involved in Unidas Podemos, but also those who had latterly splintered off, for instance Más Madrid and Compromís. This was basically a sensible idea, but Podemos (the party) have been reluctant to join an alliance where they will no longer be the hegemonic force.

Compromís isn't a Podemos splinter at all. Podemos was only formed in 2014, while Compromís were already standing long before that, in the 2007 Valencian regional election. Compromís was a coalition formed by the Bloc Nacionalista Valencià (BNV) and smaller parties. The BNV had been formed in 1989 as a merger of Unitat del Poble Valencià (themselves a merger of smaller parties in the early 1980s) and smaller groups. Compromís rejected several offers from Podemos to form an electoral alliance so it's a success for Diaz to get them involved.

I’m aware that Compromís predates Podemos (as did several other parties who have run under the umbrella), but they stood in an alliance in the 2015 and 2016 elections. They then ran separately in both 2019 elections.

[ilerda]

Time is ticking down rather quickly now for the parties/alliances/brands on the left to get their act together.

The deadline to register coalitions is the 9th June, and so far Sumar has only finalised one - a pact with the little-known Canarian party called the Drago Project which won no seats in the regional parliament or any of the island councils last month.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 7, 2023 8:05:24 GMT ilerda said:

Time is ticking down rather quickly now for the parties/alliances/brands on the left to get their act together.

The deadline to register coalitions is the 9th June, and so far Sumar has only finalised one - a pact with the little-known Canarian party called the Drago Project which won no seats in the regional parliament or any of the island councils last month.

Drago Project are hilarious no-marks. It's basically a personality cult around a bloke called Alberto Rodriguez Rodriguez (sic) who was expelled from the Cortes. It's a sort of leftist Canarian nationalist concept.

The colour scheme of the party is identical to the Berber flag. These are the kind of fruitcakes who think the Canaries are really some Berber outpost because their ancestors killed some people who might have been Berber centuries ago.

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 7, 2023 13:38:00 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jun 7, 2023 8:05:24 GMT ilerda said:

Time is ticking down rather quickly now for the parties/alliances/brands on the left to get their act together.

The deadline to register coalitions is the 9th June, and so far Sumar has only finalised one - a pact with the little-known Canarian party called the Drago Project which won no seats in the regional parliament or any of the island councils last month.

Drago Project are hilarious no-marks. It's basically a personality cult around a bloke called Alberto Rodriguez Rodriguez (sic) who was expelled from the Cortes. It's a sort of leftist Canarian nationalist concept.

The colour scheme of the party is identical to the Berber flag. These are the kind of fruitcakes who think the Canaries are really some Berber outpost because their ancestors killed some people who might have been Berber centuries ago.

The clowns persecute now the use of "Guanches" for all groups (although the tolerated terminus "antiguos Canarios" is realiter more "discriminating").

[iain]

Jun 7, 2023 8:05:24 GMT ilerda said:

Time is ticking down rather quickly now for the parties/alliances/brands on the left to get their act together.

The deadline to register coalitions is the 9th June, and so far Sumar has only finalised one - a pact with the little-known Canarian party called the Drago Project which won no seats in the regional parliament or any of the island councils last month.

In other alliance news, the PP and UPN (Unión del Pueblo Navarro) will be running separately in a general election for the first time. Up until 2008 the UPN previously essentially functioned as the PP's branch in Navarra. While things haven't been so cosy since then, and they have sometimes run against one another in regional elections (including this time), they have always reunited for general elections. This is unlikely to have too much impact in the grand scheme of things, with the right still likely to retain their two seats (EDIT - actually, thinking about it this could plausibly result in a PSOE or even Bildu gain from the right).

A couple of single-province parties to keep an eye on, after the success of Teruel Existe! last time (probably favoured to hold on with an incumbent, though the PP will be aiming for a second seat):

Soria ¡Ya! - running in Soria, which has traditionally been the most boring province on account of it only having 2 seats. Since the reduction from 3 to 2 it has predictably always split 1 seat each between the PP and PSOE. However, in the 2022 regional election Soria ¡Ya!, who, like Teruel Existe!, are linked with the España Vaciada movement, came from nowhere to win over 40% of the vote. They look very likely to take a seat, almost certainly from the PSOE (who have reportedly given up any hope of holding on). You'd expect the small party to do a little worse than in the regional elections, but if they can replicate it then the PP seat could also plausibly be at risk.

Por Ávila - a PP splinter running in the 3 seat province of Ávila. On both the regional and recent local elections they would just miss out on a seat, and I'd probably not expect them to match those performances, but they could be in the fight with Vox and the second PP for the final seat.

Unión del Pueblo Leonés - have run on and off in the León province, a 4 seater, over a number of elections, never really getting anywhere. They won 4% last time. However in the regional elections they achieved their best ever performance, over 20%, and also did well in the recent local elections. If they can get somewhere near their regional performance then they'd be well placed to take the PSOE's second seat (which will probably be lost to the PP otherwise).

[WJ]

An interesting little factoid:

Unless the leader heads a party which is regional, the leader of the party is almost always at the top of the party list for Madrid. This is the first election, at least in this century, where more party leaders are fighting for seats outside Madrid than in.

Sanchéz (PSOE) and Abascal (Vox) are at the top of the Madrid lists, Belarra (Podemos) is fighting in Navarre, Díaz (Sumar) is fighting in Pontevedra and Feijóo is a senator, representing Galicia.

[ilerda]

Jun 7, 2023 17:57:33 GMT WJ said:

An interesting little factoid:

Unless the leader heads a party which is regional, the leader of the party is almost always at the top of the party list for Madrid. This is the first election, at least in this century, where more party leaders are fighting for seats outside Madrid than in.

Sanchéz (PSOE) and Abascal (Vox) are at the top of the Madrid lists, Belarra (Podemos) is fighting in Navarre, Díaz (Sumar) is fighting in Pontevedra and Feijóo is a senator, representing Galicia.

Has Feijóo announced his intention to fight a congress seat? I’d assumed he’d go for either Madrid or a Galician province. Can’t see staying in the Senate as a viable option even if there’s no constitutional impediment.