iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Aug 22, 2023 18:56:55 GMT
The King has, rather oddly, proposed Alberto Feijóo as candidate for the (first) Investiture Debate.
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Aug 22, 2023 19:29:59 GMT
Probably makes sense from a procedural point of view with Sanchez having the incumbency. Can prove from the start that Feijoo doesn’t have the votes and stop a narrative that Sanchez was unfairly kept in power to prevent the right from taking over. Then once Feijoo loses it doesn’t really matter whether Sanchez can win a vote or not - he’ll remain PM for 4 months or 4 years.
It’s just better to disprove the alternative before you force people to accept the reality.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 22, 2023 20:21:59 GMT
Probably makes sense from a procedural point of view with Sanchez having the incumbency. Can prove from the start that Feijoo doesn’t have the votes and stop a narrative that Sanchez was unfairly kept in power to prevent the right from taking over. Then once Feijoo loses it doesn’t really matter whether Sanchez can win a vote or not - he’ll remain PM for 4 months or 4 years. It’s just better to disprove the alternative before you force people to accept the reality. Quite an elegant solution. It's a bit like the positive majority rule of post-war Germany. Edit: apparently the Spanish constitution also allows for that anyway. And for federal intervention in an autonomous region--modelled on Germany but never used in the modern Bundesrepublik. |
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Aug 22, 2023 22:42:42 GMT
One interesting factor is the increase in pressure it now puts on Junts. If the right all vote for Feijoo (PP, Vox, UPN, CCa) and Junts abstain in the second vote (requiring a simple majority only) then Feijoo wins by 1. If Junts decide to vote against then they can block Feijoo.
If Sanchez can’t persuade Junts to back him and they abstain then he could perhaps squeak through by persuading CCa to vote in his favour and win by 1 in the simple majority vote.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,439
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Post by iain on Aug 22, 2023 22:49:29 GMT
One interesting factor is the increase in pressure it now puts on Junts. If the right all vote for Feijoo (PP, Vox, UPN, CCa) and Junts abstain in the second vote (requiring a simple majority only) then Feijoo wins by 1. If Junts decide to vote against then they can block Feijoo. If Sanchez can’t persuade Junts to back him and they abstain then he could perhaps squeak through by persuading CCa to vote in his favour and win by 1 in the simple majority vote. There is a 0% chance that Junts will abstain on Feijóo's investiture. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 22, 2023 22:52:10 GMT
I know the voting system can be pointed to but it’s interesting that despite that Spanish government formation appeared to be relatively simple pre-2015, yet since that election it seems to be constantly unstable and difficult to get a government formed
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,439
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Post by iain on Aug 22, 2023 22:57:58 GMT
I know the voting system can be pointed to but it’s interesting that despite that Spanish government formation appeared to be relatively simple pre-2015, yet since that election it seems to be constantly unstable and difficult to get a government formed That is basically down to the collapse of 'bipartidismo'. Prior to 2015 one of the PP or the PSOE would be just a few seats off a majority. The 'three crises' (financial, territorial and corruption) finished off the relative stability of the post-Franco years. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 23, 2023 0:10:06 GMT
I know the voting system can be pointed to but it’s interesting that despite that Spanish government formation appeared to be relatively simple pre-2015, yet since that election it seems to be constantly unstable and difficult to get a government formed That is basically down to the collapse of 'bipartidismo'. Prior to 2015 one of the PP or the PSOE would be just a few seats off a majority. The 'three crises' (financial, territorial and corruption) finished off the relative stability of the post-Franco years. In 2008, when IU fell to 2 and UPyD to 1 seat, it seemed, that the decade-long deCline of the small national parties - after all no surprise with such an electoral system - would very soon come to its end. |
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Aug 23, 2023 8:37:19 GMT
One interesting factor is the increase in pressure it now puts on Junts. If the right all vote for Feijoo (PP, Vox, UPN, CCa) and Junts abstain in the second vote (requiring a simple majority only) then Feijoo wins by 1. If Junts decide to vote against then they can block Feijoo. If Sanchez can’t persuade Junts to back him and they abstain then he could perhaps squeak through by persuading CCa to vote in his favour and win by 1 in the simple majority vote. There is a 0% chance that Junts will abstain on Feijóo's investiture. Normally I would agree, but one thing I’ve learnt with the Catalan question is to expect the unimaginable. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,439
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Post by iain on Aug 23, 2023 14:19:18 GMT
There is a 0% chance that Junts will abstain on Feijóo's investiture. Normally I would agree, but one thing I’ve learnt with the Catalan question is to expect the unimaginable. I know what you're saying, but it simply won't happen. Junts aren't about to sign their own death warrant. After running an election campaign devoid of any vision for the country, focused purely on attacking Sánchez for working with 'the enemies of Spain', it is rather amusing to watch Feijóo scrabbling around to 'negotiate', not only with the PNV, but with the party of Puigdemont himself. I don't have a clue what sort of strategy he is working towards, but given that the election campaign showed him to have the political instincts of a gnat, perhaps there is no point even trying to guess. |
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Post by batman on Aug 23, 2023 15:07:59 GMT
the gnats in this area are very pro-Lib Dem
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 24, 2023 0:53:43 GMT
Normally I would agree, but one thing I’ve learnt with the Catalan question is to expect the unimaginable. I know what you're saying, but it simply won't happen. Junts aren't about to sign their own death warrant. After running an election campaign devoid of any vision for the country, focused purely on attacking Sánchez for working with 'the enemies of Spain', it is rather amusing to watch Feijóo scrabbling around to 'negotiate', not only with the PNV, but with the party of Puigdemont himself. I don't have a clue what sort of strategy he is working towards, but given that the election campaign showed him to have the political instincts of a gnat, perhaps there is no point even trying to guess. JxC (not the Argentina-version...) could imitate SF, though, and abstain, then he could get 1 vote more. But indeed very unlikely, as the Speaker-election has shown. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Aug 30, 2023 16:04:04 GMT
Feijoo has proposed to Sanchez that the PSOE should allow the PP to take the reins under a promise to hold a new election in 2 years time. Sanchez has, understandably rejected this proposal.
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Aug 30, 2023 22:31:40 GMT
Clearly running out of ideas fast at Génova.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 30, 2023 22:50:46 GMT
Feijoo has proposed to Sanchez that the PSOE should allow the PP to take the reins under a promise to hold a new election in 2 years time. Sanchez has, understandably rejected this proposal. Sanchez’s first spell as leader ended when he objected to abstaining to allow the PP to form a government in 2016 and the party executive overruled him. So I can’t imagine he’d allow a deal like this under any circumstances |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 20, 2023 7:22:01 GMT
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 20, 2023 7:58:06 GMT
Languages are one thing but some of those demands like amnesty would be extremely risky for Sánchez to consider |
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Sept 20, 2023 8:22:26 GMT
Languages are one thing but some of those demands like amnesty would be extremely risky for Sánchez to consider The languages thing was just to get a Socialist elected as parliamentary president so fairly easy to give away (and could always be reversed of course). I get the strong feeling Sanchez would prefer to either force Junts’ hand and dare them not to support him, or take it to a new election rather than accept their investiture demands. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 20, 2023 15:13:53 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 20, 2023 16:30:30 GMT
The regional languages topic came up recently as Spain has been (as part of the same concept) trying to push the EU to make them official EU languages. Unsurprisingly, the EU has found this rather annoying so Spain is now having to promise to pay for the costs of it itself. And they are quite hefty.
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