Spanish General Election, 2023

[therealriga]

Jul 24, 2023 21:15:34 GMT edgbaston said:

Jul 24, 2023 18:03:25 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Those 2 basicSeats do not get included in the further alLocation of seats.

Looking at the system a rural based party could easily win a majority with 35%-40% of the national vote and a divided (but not overwhelmingly so) opposition. The D’hont system plus the initial 2 seats you mention would allow for this quite easily.

By my calculation, eliminating the 2-seat bonus and just allocating proportionally to each province or autonomous city would change things as follows:

Sumar +5
ERC +1
PNV -1 (a gain in Biscay but loss in the other 2 Basque provinces)
PSOE -1
PP -4

Madrid would have got 12 extra seats and Barcelona 8. Sumar would have picked up an extra 2 each in those, plus the extra seat given to Santa Cruz de Tenerife. The allocation system seems to give a small bias towards the right.

[Adam in Stroud]

Jul 25, 2023 14:31:28 GMT iain said:

And finally, Vox. The most obvious pattern here is that they lost more voteshare where they did best in 2019, but there are a couple of other things to note.

- The poor result in Andalucía is part of the pattern noted above, but it's also clear that they as well as PSOE fell victim to the PP overperformance here.
- The massive fall in Santa Cruz de Tenerife is due to not running a list, but the increase in Las Palmas is interesting. Combined with overperformances for PSOE and underperformances for the PP and Sumar, it looks like the Canaries just decided to do their own thing.
- Increasing their (admittedly mostly paltry) voteshares in Cataluña and the Basque Country, combined with lacklustre PP showings in the same areas, probably indicates that a fair proportion of the remaining hardcore 'constitutionalist' Ciudadanos voters switched over to Vox this time.
- The result in Galicia doesn't stand out on the map, but is quite an impressive fall given how low the Vox vote started off there, and again indicates that Feijóo's 'local boy' status served the PP well here.
- Though both leant left, the Vox overperformances really hit home how 'catch all' the voter bases of the PRC in Cantabria and TE in Teruel were / are.

Has anyone said Vox et praeterea nihil yet?

[Georg Ebner]

Trends (= deViations from national average) of regions & provinces
- with regional nationalists:


- without regional nationalists:

[WJ]

Jul 25, 2023 18:56:12 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jul 25, 2023 14:31:28 GMT iain said:

And finally, Vox. The most obvious pattern here is that they lost more voteshare where they did best in 2019, but there are a couple of other things to note.

- The poor result in Andalucía is part of the pattern noted above, but it's also clear that they as well as PSOE fell victim to the PP overperformance here.
- The massive fall in Santa Cruz de Tenerife is due to not running a list, but the increase in Las Palmas is interesting. Combined with overperformances for PSOE and underperformances for the PP and Sumar, it looks like the Canaries just decided to do their own thing.
- Increasing their (admittedly mostly paltry) voteshares in Cataluña and the Basque Country, combined with lacklustre PP showings in the same areas, probably indicates that a fair proportion of the remaining hardcore 'constitutionalist' Ciudadanos voters switched over to Vox this time.
- The result in Galicia doesn't stand out on the map, but is quite an impressive fall given how low the Vox vote started off there, and again indicates that Feijóo's 'local boy' status served the PP well here.
- Though both leant left, the Vox overperformances really hit home how 'catch all' the voter bases of the PRC in Cantabria and TE in Teruel were / are.

Has anyone said Vox et praeterea nihil yet?

Or Vox populi, Vox dei?

[Deleted]

How come Extremadura has never had a strong regionalist party? It seems like exactly the sort of place that would have one and one that would do well? (more along the lines of TE than the Catalan or Basque nationalists)

[therealriga]

Jul 26, 2023 7:34:18 GMT @europeanlefty said:

How come Extremadura has never had a strong regionalist party? It seems like exactly the sort of place that would have one and one that would do well? (more along the lines of TE than the Catalan or Basque nationalists)

They do exist, there's Extremadura Unida on the right and Coalición Extremeña on the left. The former had seats in the regional assembly in the 80s and the latter in the 90s. Possibly, the small constituency size (5 for Badajoz, 4 for Caceres) at national level has resulted in them throwing in their lot with the PP and PSOE, weakening their own identity in the process.

[WJ]

It's a poor and declining region of Spain which doesn't have a strong identity (certainly not to the same level as most other regions). See also: Murcia. Probably too swamped by Castillan influence for a regionalist identity to emerge. It might be that an Empty Spain campaign could pop-up here in the next electoral cycles. ¡Extremadura existe!

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 26, 2023 15:45:12 GMT WJ said:

It's a poor and declining region of Spain which doesn't have a strong identity (certainly not to the same level as most other regions). See also: Murcia. Probably too swamped by Castillan influence for a regionalist identity to emerge. It might be that an Empty Spain campaign could pop-up here in the next electoral cycles. ¡Extremadura existe!

There was a survey years ago asking Spaniards which region they would least like a prospective son- or daughter-in-law to come from. Murcia was streets ahead.

[WJ]

Jul 26, 2023 16:40:17 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jul 26, 2023 15:45:12 GMT WJ said:

It's a poor and declining region of Spain which doesn't have a strong identity (certainly not to the same level as most other regions). See also: Murcia. Probably too swamped by Castillan influence for a regionalist identity to emerge. It might be that an Empty Spain campaign could pop-up here in the next electoral cycles. ¡Extremadura existe!

There was a survey years ago asking Spaniards which region they would least like a prospective son- or daughter-in-law to come from. Murcia was streets ahead.

It's nice that they can come top in something. Funnily enough, my ex is from Murcia...

[AdminSTB]

Murcianos are often the butt of jokes for having an incomprehensible accent, being illiterate peasants and living in their huertas (like a sort of small market garden/smallholding that only has vegetables). I've always assumed the latter is a euphemism for 'living in a hut.'

Presumably, Freddie Boswell was one.

[iain]

From today through the weekend, the vote from Spaniards abroad (the CERA vote) is being counted. This generally skews left (and from what we've seen so far, this year will be no exception), but turnout is very low - only about 10%. Last time round this did change one seat (a PP gain from PNV), but it seems unlikely this time as there is only really one seat which look close enough. That seat would be Madrid, but it is the PP who are looking to gain from PSOE, and the right doing better with the CERA vote would basically be unprecedented. The other vaguely plausible changes might be PP gains from Junts in Girona or Vox in Cantabria.

Article showing a few of the closest races here:
www.rtve.es/noticias/20230728/voto-extranjero-elecciones-generales-23j-escanos-juego/2452772.shtml

Edit:
And here are the results last time. Turnout is up ~3% but gives you an idea of the numbers:
www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/GENERALES_2019_ResultadosVotoCERA2_Congreso.pdf

Edit 2:
There are apparently nearly 50,000 votes in Madrid, and the result may take until tomorrow to come through.

[AdminSTB]

I wonder what Junts will ask for in that scenario.

If there is another election, I can see the PP and (especially) Vox really hammering the message that Sanchez attempted to stay in power through an arrangement with Junts that sold Spain out, especially if they can tie that in to an 'empty Spain' narrative.

[iain]

Jul 28, 2023 12:26:38 GMT iain said:

From today through the weekend, the vote from Spaniards abroad (the CERA vote) is being counted. This generally skews left (and from what we've seen so far, this year will be no exception), but turnout is very low - only about 10%. Last time round this did change one seat (a PP gain from PNV), but it seems unlikely this time as there is only really one seat which look close enough. That seat would be Madrid, but it is the PP who are looking to gain from PSOE, and the right doing better with the CERA vote would basically be unprecedented. The other vaguely plausible changes might be PP gains from Junts in Girona or Vox in Cantabria.

Article showing a few of the closest races here:
www.rtve.es/noticias/20230728/voto-extranjero-elecciones-generales-23j-escanos-juego/2452772.shtml

Edit:
And here are the results last time. Turnout is up ~3% but gives you an idea of the numbers:
www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/GENERALES_2019_ResultadosVotoCERA2_Congreso.pdf

Edit 2:
There are apparently nearly 50,000 votes in Madrid, and the result may take until tomorrow to come through.

As I suspected, there aren’t enough votes to make a difference outside of Madrid (where we don’t yet have the results). We could plausibly end up with Sumar overtaking Vox nationally though (nothing more than a moral victory of course).

[iain]

Looks like the PSOE has lost their last seat in Madrid to the PP. This means they’d need Junts to vote yes rather than abstain, and surely confirms new elections.

Edit - sounds like a recount. Must be extremely tight.

Edit 2 - apparently lost due to a (not unexpected) Sumar overperformance.

[iain]

Jun 9, 2023 21:16:52 GMT iain said:

Jun 9, 2023 21:14:12 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

That is genuinely impressive.

The agreement includes:
Movimiento SUMAR, Podemos, Izquierda Unida, Catalunya en Comú, Más Madrid, Más País, Compromís, Chunta Aragonesista, Més per Mallorca, Més per Menorca, Verdes Equo, Alianza Verde, Batzarre, Proyecto Draco, Izquierda Asturiana and Iniciativo del Pueblo Andaluz.

The seat winners reveal a big loss of power for Podemos:
Sumar - 10
En Comú - 5
Izquierda Unida - 5
Podemos - 5
Compromís - 2
CHA - 1
Más Madrid - 1
Más País - 1
Més - 1

Of the 7 seats which the alliance failed to defend, 3 were allocated to Podemos plus 1 each to Sumar, Más Madrid, Proyecto Drago and an Independent.

[Deleted]

What happens in a new election? Basically the same? Electorate decide to make sure this time and the right win a huge majority? Or even the left retaining power because people decide not to risk Vox having an influence?

[iain]

A couple of developments:

The Canarian Coalition has opened negotiations with Sánchez - they actually agreed to support his investiture last time, but their single MP (who came from an old PP family in the islands) refused to follow the party's instructions.

The UPN, the right wing PP allies from Navarra, have told the PP to stop “lying to the people” that they can form government.

[iain]

Jul 31, 2023 16:10:14 GMT @europeanlefty said:

What happens in a new election? Basically the same? Electorate decide to make sure this time and the right win a huge majority? Or even the left retaining power because people decide not to risk Vox having an influence?

Well, the first (and as far as I know, only so far) post-election poll shows:
PSOE - 33.0%
PP - 31.8%
Sumar - 13.1%
Vox - 12.7%

It's from Electomania, who were pretty stable through the campaign in showing PP 34, PSOE 29, Vox 13, Sumar 13

Clearly Sánchez is seen as the 'winner' of these elections and has momentum at the moment. Whether he can sustain that is another question.

[iain]

Francina Armengol (PSOE) has been elected President of Congress (essentially the head of the legislative branch). She will lead the 'Mesa del Congreso', which is responsible for organising the legislative agenda and proposing the lower chamber's budget.

She won 178 votes which presumably (voting is secret) means she got the votes of PSOE, Sumar, ERC, Bildu, PNV, BNG and, importantly, Junts.

Vox voted for their own candidate, and the PP candidate was announced as receiving 129 votes. This has caused a bit of confusion, as it is presumed the number was read out wrong, and the PP received 139 (themselves and the single deputies from UPN and CC).


Edit: Also important to add that ERC and Junts have made clear that they have so far only negotiated support for the PSOE candidate to hold this position, and have not yet come to an agreement to support a PSOE government.

[Georg Ebner]

Seat-margins of the 2 blocs (obviously yellow = JxC & PNV + CCa):

%-margins:

The sharp antAgonism between Castilians and minorities also electorally won't go down very well.
The outstanding strip Murcia-Lugo was already in November 2019 right-wing:

...and at the same time low inCome:

...giving combined this (all 3 maps are thankfully taken from ElPais):