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Post by therealriga on Jul 24, 2023 12:40:03 GMT
Though it's not unusual for upper chambers to go for territorial representation. The "equal numbers of members for 50 provinces" thing is exactly what the US senate does. What does tend to go unnoticed is that there's a fair bit of malapportionment in the congress itself. For example, Teruel with 101,250 and Segovia with 115,810 people get 3 members, a ratio of 33750 and 38603 people per deputy, respectively. For the largest provinces, the ratios are 131,032 in Madrid, 125,824 in Barcelona and 120,644 in Valencia. In Barcelona's neighbouring province of Lleida, the ratio is only 72,488. Why is this - is it a case of ‘3 members minimum per province’ If so this must not apply to the two Moroccan possessions. It's exactly that, though the minimum isn't 3, but 2, with Soria the only 2-member district. It had 3 before 2008. Ceuta and Melilla aren't provinces so are single member districts, effectively making them FPTP. Ceuta has a bit over 60k and Melilla 55k. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 24, 2023 16:10:03 GMT
They were described to me by a Catalan barmaid that works in Horbury as out and out fascists that hate women and gay people . Really a nasty bunch . Perhaps she believes everything she believes in the rotten media. According to large parts of the media people who disagree with official narrative on immigration, coronavirus, global warming etc etc etc are 'far right'. I live in Spain and the TV news channels here pump it out literally every 5-10 seconds I got my first taste of this election on LBC, who were pumping on heavy rotation that far right Vox were about to sweep to power, and they repeated three policy areas where I agreed with them. Come to that, all were UK Labour policy within my adult lifetime. Probably I am far right now and I am not at all bothered. Its a broadly centrist position. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 24, 2023 16:15:07 GMT
Clearly the Spanish people don't agree with your assessment of their needs as Vox are getting a real drumming n this election. Surely it cannot be the case that the British media have bigged up a "far-right threat in European election" for no cause? As Ryan Davies would have said "Scarcely believe". Nothing quite makes liberal metropolitans quite as moist as a far right scare story |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 24, 2023 16:21:13 GMT
my parents' former neighbours - a friendly Spanish couple of apparently normal middle class people - he was a manager for Santander - were fairly nostalgic for Franco. I will see Adam in Stroud bank manager and raise you markgoodair barmaid. So far I have not even read the plural of anecdote let alone data |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 24, 2023 16:30:20 GMT
OK, that was good, an enjoyable five pages. The highlight was Mark simping for a barmaid who is never going to sleep with him
The expectation of a PP victory seemed to hang on gains from the socially conservative Vox party, so how that was ever going to result in PP-Vox majority is beyond me.
Pariah parties like Vox will never be in power as part of a multi-party coalition. Their one moment of opportunity comes if they are the sole kingmaker, like the DUP
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Jul 24, 2023 16:56:47 GMT
OK, that was good, an enjoyable five pages. The highlight was Mark simping for a barmaid who is never going to sleep with him The expectation of a PP victory seemed to hang on gains from the socially conservative Vox party, so how that was ever going to result in PP-Vox majority is beyond me.
Pariah parties like Vox will never be in power as part of a multi-party coalition. Their one moment of opportunity comes if they are the sole kingmaker, like the DUP The expectation of a PP victory hanged on the expectation that they would get 20 odd more seats than they did and the PSOE to do slightly worse than they did. No one expected Vox to do anything other than loose seats. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 24, 2023 17:16:30 GMT
The easy way to identify the far-right is to ask some key questions.
1. Are any of the leadership of the party former Marxists? No= not fash, yes=probably fash.
2. Is it socially acceptable to vote for them? No=possibly fash, yes=not fash, unless you're in France.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 24, 2023 17:21:03 GMT
Why is this - is it a case of ‘3 members minimum per province’ If so this must not apply to the two Moroccan possessions. It's exactly that, though the minimum isn't 3, but 2, with Soria the only 2-member district. It had 3 before 2008. Ceuta and Melilla aren't provinces so are single member districts, effectively making them FPTP. Ceuta has a bit over 60k and Melilla 55k. Interesting, why do Teruel and Sorgia get 3 members and not 2 then. I think that’s fair enough for the two Moroccan cities, they are special cases like our Outer Hebrides or IoW |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 24, 2023 18:03:25 GMT
It's exactly that, though the minimum isn't 3, but 2, with Soria the only 2-member district. It had 3 before 2008. Ceuta and Melilla aren't provinces so are single member districts, effectively making them FPTP. Ceuta has a bit over 60k and Melilla 55k. Interesting, why do Teruel and Sorgia get 3 members and not 2 then. I think that’s fair enough for the two Moroccan cities, they are special cases like our Outer Hebrides or IoW Those 2 basicSeats do not get included in the further alLocation of seats. |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 24, 2023 18:07:46 GMT
I think I'm in love with her Spain has a lot of good looking political leaders. I think the Spanish in general are quite a good looking people, though I’ve only ever been to Catalonia. Yes, that's remarkable - and seems to be caused by increased wealth? On old photoGraphies this is less the case. (And Castilian woMen were once infamously male: deep&rough voice, imperious et cet.) |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jul 24, 2023 20:56:12 GMT
The PNV have announced they will not hold talks with Feijóo, so any fantasy of a PP led government (absent new elections of course) has vanished.
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 24, 2023 21:15:34 GMT
Interesting, why do Teruel and Sorgia get 3 members and not 2 then. I think that’s fair enough for the two Moroccan cities, they are special cases like our Outer Hebrides or IoW Those 2 basicSeats do not get included in the further alLocation of seats. Looking at the system a rural based party could easily win a majority with 35%-40% of the national vote and a divided (but not overwhelmingly so) opposition. The D’hont system plus the initial 2 seats you mention would allow for this quite easily. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 24, 2023 21:34:15 GMT
my parents' former neighbours - a friendly Spanish couple of apparently normal middle class people - he was a manager for Santander - were fairly nostalgic for Franco. I will see Adam in Stroud bank manager and raise you markgoodair barmaid. So far I have not even read the plural of anecdote let alone data Anecdote is all I have for Spain, I'm afraid; I know bugger all about the place. |
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Post by therealriga on Jul 25, 2023 4:47:53 GMT
Those 2 basicSeats do not get included in the further alLocation of seats. Looking at the system a rural based party could easily win a majority with 35%-40% of the national vote and a divided (but not overwhelmingly so) opposition. The D’hont system plus the initial 2 seats you mention would allow for this quite easily. You don't even need to be a rural-based party. The PSOE won exactly half the seats in 1989 with 39.6% of the vote. |
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Post by iain on Jul 25, 2023 8:48:23 GMT
And a look at the change in Sumar vote, firstly compared to the combined vote of their predecessors (Podemos + Más País + CHA + Més + Compromís), and secondly compared to the Podemos vote. - After years of infighting (which Podemos leader Ione Belarra looks like she wants to repeat if her performance yesterday is anything to go by), it is clear that Díaz's strategy to achieve left unity saved the furniture for the left. Areas where an ally had run in 2019 were some of the worst in terms of performance compared with 'potential', as voters leaked to PSOE, but the best in terms of performance compared with Podemos. Even a small Más País style split, never mind Podemos running alone, would probably have meant disaster for the far left in this election. - Some of the patterns in the first map are similar to those in the PSOE map, due to what was going on in other parties: Teruel, Melilla, Cantabria, Soria. - The same goes for Cataluña, where the nationalist collapse helped prop up Sumar, particularly in Girona where they saved a very vulnerable seat. - The inclusion of Compromís did lead to small increases on Podemos' performance in 2 of the 3 Valencian provinces (though not enough to save the seat in Castellón), but the level of transfer was very low and must come as a disappointment. It's clear that many left-leaning voters in this Autonomous Community went PSOE this time. - The same was true to an even greater extent in the Balearic Islands, where the Sumar result was simply abysmal. With the addition of strong allies they should have been looking to gain a seat, but instead they went backwards on the Podemos result and lost a seat. Obviously votes don't transfer perfectly, but I'm not sure what the causes for the scale of the failure are. - As I wrote on the PSOE map, there was a big swing from Sumar to PSOE in the Canaries. I have no idea why. - Like PSOE, Sumar were squeezed in Galicia by the favourite son vote for Feijóo and the good nationalist result. There was no sign of a favourite daughter vote for Díaz, though I guess it could have been even worse. - The result in the Basque Country + Navarra was very poor (the site of 3/7 of the party's losses) as Sumar were squeezed between strong PSOE and Bildu performances. ![]()   |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 25, 2023 9:17:37 GMT
In news that will surprise no one, TVE reports that EH Bildu will support Sanchez to prevent a PP+Vox government. The Governometer is fun. PSOE+Sumar+ERC+EH Bildu+PNV+BNG gets to 172 and PP+Vox+UPN+CCA comes to 171. Realisitically CCA won't sign up for that. |
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Post by iain on Jul 25, 2023 10:36:18 GMT
In news that will surprise no one, TVE reports that EH Bildu will support Sanchez to prevent a PP+Vox government. The Governometer is fun. PSOE+Sumar+ERC+EH Bildu+PNV+BNG gets to 172 and PP+Vox+UPN+CCA comes to 171. Realisitically CCA won't sign up for that. CCA have said they won't support anyone, but would negotiate an abstention with either PSOE or PP - but even then only if Sumar or Vox aren't involved. So basically they are useless to everyone. |
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Post by iain on Jul 25, 2023 13:36:03 GMT
And now onto the PP. They also get two maps. The first is the change from their vote last time, the second is the change in the vote from them + Ciudadanos. The two didn't run together in 2019, but given the cannibalisation of the vote I think the second map is more illuminating. Couple of notes - the scale on the first map is different, and I have treated Navarra differently in the two maps. In the first one I have shown the PP change from the NA+ (alliance of PP, Cs and UPN) vote in 2019, in the second map I have shown the change in the combined PP+UPN vote from NA+. - Navarra obviously stands out in the first map, which is due to UPN running alone. - Some patterns again remain the same with other parties (big increase in Cantabria, decent one in Teruel - in the second map - and poor result in Soria) - The results in Castilla & León were underwhelming, though they come from a relatively high base, particularly once you factor in Cs. - There is a pattern in the second map of stronger performances where Vox did well in 2019, as the smaller party's vote was cannibalised. - Strong increases in both African possessions. - Very clear in both maps is the extremely strong performance in Andalucía. Just as the PSOE underwhelmed, the PP did very well. Worth noting that this isn't just a demographic shift, but something more localised, as otherwise you'd expect the same patterns in e.g. Extremadura. - Very strong result in Galicia (much more obvious in the second map), most likely down to a vote for local boy Alberto Feijóo. - Good increases in Madrid and Asturias, neither of which I can find a compelling explanation for (though I guess the Ayuso regional government in Madrid is mega-popular so that might have something to do with it). - Failure to make any sort of impact in the Basque Country or Cataluña, even from a very low base. In the latter it is perhaps unsurprising that they were barely able to match the PP+Cs performance given it was Ciudadanos' home ground, but still a poor performance. The rightward shift and dalliance with Vox is clearly causing both of these non-Castilian Autonomous Communities to diverge even further from the rest of Spain. - The slightly weird looking mismatch between the two Canary Islands provinces is due to Vox failing to run a list in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.   |
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Post by iain on Jul 25, 2023 14:31:28 GMT
And finally, Vox. The most obvious pattern here is that they lost more voteshare where they did best in 2019, but there are a couple of other things to note. - The poor result in Andalucía is part of the pattern noted above, but it's also clear that they as well as PSOE fell victim to the PP overperformance here. - The massive fall in Santa Cruz de Tenerife is due to not running a list, but the increase in Las Palmas is interesting. Combined with overperformances for PSOE and underperformances for the PP and Sumar, it looks like the Canaries just decided to do their own thing. - Increasing their (admittedly mostly paltry) voteshares in Cataluña and the Basque Country, combined with lacklustre PP showings in the same areas, probably indicates that a fair proportion of the remaining hardcore 'constitutionalist' Ciudadanos voters switched over to Vox this time. - The result in Galicia doesn't stand out on the map, but is quite an impressive fall given how low the Vox vote started off there, and again indicates that Feijóo's 'local boy' status served the PP well here. - Though both leant left, the Vox overperformances really hit home how 'catch all' the voter bases of the PRC in Cantabria and TE in Teruel were / are.  |
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Post by WJ on Jul 25, 2023 15:46:54 GMT
And finally, Vox. The most obvious pattern here is that they lost more voteshare where they did best in 2019, but there are a couple of other things to note. - The poor result in Andalucía is part of the pattern noted above, but it's also clear that they as well as PSOE fell victim to the PP overperformance here. - The massive fall in Santa Cruz de Tenerife is due to not running a list, but the increase in Las Palmas is interesting. Combined with overperformances for PSOE and underperformances for the PP and Sumar, it looks like the Canaries just decided to do their own thing. - Increasing their (admittedly mostly paltry) voteshares in Cataluña and the Basque Country, combined with lacklustre PP showings in the same areas, probably indicates that a fair proportion of the remaining hardcore 'constitutionalist' Ciudadanos voters switched over to Vox this time. - The result in Galicia doesn't stand out on the map, but is quite an impressive fall given how low the Vox vote started off there, and again indicates that Feijóo's 'local boy' status served the PP well here. - Though both leant left, the Vox overperformances really hit home how 'catch all' the voter bases of the PRC in Cantabria and TE in Teruel were / are. Murcia is very striking. In November 2019, Vox topped the vote there. In 2023, they came third. Admittedly, in April 2019 they were in fourth (behind Ciudadanos), so maybe just a reversion to type. |
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