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Post by agedlikewine on Jul 23, 2023 22:56:25 GMT
The PP party shown on TVE has someone waving a Catalan flag, that's a surprise. And the interpreter speaking over Arnaldo Otegi was hard to understand. PP have used the (constitutional) Catalan flag alongside the Spanish flag in several campaigns and settings, as have C's in the past. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 23, 2023 22:58:12 GMT
Sanchez has played a bad hand extremely well and was probably the only person in the PSOE who could have done so, but that wouldn't have been enough on its own: this is a Ted Heath in 1974 level of fiasco from Feijoo, absolutely incredible. An even better comparison for Feijoo might be to the ill-fated Rainer Barzel in West Germany. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 23, 2023 23:53:42 GMT
I don't want to start a discussion of the Civil War but as, I've said before, it's important to note that despite UK media coverage, the removal of statues of Franco (the last one was in Melilla), the attempts by the outgoing government to create a DNA database of the dead, the business about the Valley of the Fallen, the view of barmaids in Horbury and so on, that Spain is far from united in opposition to the memory of Franco. This isn't like modern Germany where almost no one is a public supporter of the memory of Hitler. There are whole swathes of Spain and a chunk of the population, even younger people, who are either ambivalent or supportive in some way. If you read, eg, Paul Preston's stuff you get a one sided view. The Pacto del Olvido is still an important thing in Spain (indeed it is the basis for the Amnesty Law of 1977) and we should remember that. On that note, I've just started re-reading The Face of Spain. The Spanish Labyrinth will follow. I recommend both. It's certainly the case that my parents' former neighbours - a friendly Spanish couple of apparently normal middle class people - he was a manager for Santander - were fairly nostalgic for Franco. They didn't have much time for Catalan separatists or (understandably IMO) ETA, which may have had a lot to do with it. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 24, 2023 0:05:21 GMT
Sanchez has been pretty impressive as European leftists goes. He may once again resign for the PSOE to abstain and let the PP govern. He could be back though. His longevity is something to behold
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 24, 2023 0:13:20 GMT
Awkward moment at the PP victory party where the crowd started chanting for Ayuso part way through Feijóo's speech. The footage is very The Thick Of It: he looks as if he's dying inside and she's not even bothering to disguise her delight... Presume that's her to his immediate left? |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 24, 2023 1:03:50 GMT
Bets an on election before the end of the year? That's the traditional trajectory there then in such cases. Feijóo is very damaged now, but otherWise both camps are motivated and it is doubtful, that any side can gain enough. So another Israel & Bulgaria? Or the so far unthinkable - a Grand Coalition? |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 24, 2023 2:20:33 GMT
Is the Senate relevant to government formation? No. The upper chamber is pretty toothless in Spain too. They have essentially no power to change or block day-to-day legislation. The only time they really have any power is when constitutional changes are proposed. There are some interesting suggestions for it to be based on the autonomous communities as a move to federalising Spain but I doubt they will get anywhere. As edgbaston says upthread it's crazily disproportional to population, even with the automatic designations and it's the only way that 'empty Spain' can exert some influence so they won't give that up. Similarly, it's the only way to get the tiny (and sometimes bonkers) parties into the Cortes to allow and thus keep up the impression of social pluralism. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 24, 2023 7:16:31 GMT
There really never was a path to a PP+Vox majority, they're broadly quite lucky to have gotten this many seats out of the result. (Though Junts are luckier, avoided several more losses narrowly.)
It takes less than a 1% straight swing from PP to PSOE for a PSOE+Sumar+ERC+Basques majority. It takes more than a 1.5% straight swing from PSOE to PP for a PP-Vox majority, and then several of those gains come in Catalunya where PP is a minor party.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jul 24, 2023 7:27:16 GMT
The footage is very The Thick Of It: he looks as if he's dying inside and she's not even bothering to disguise her delight... Presume that's her to his immediate left? She’s in the red top. |
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Post by batman on Jul 24, 2023 8:37:07 GMT
so it wasn't just the polls, it was the exit polls too. How reliable have Spanish exit polls been in the past?
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iain
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Post by iain on Jul 24, 2023 9:22:42 GMT
so it wasn't just the polls, it was the exit polls too. How reliable have Spanish exit polls been in the past? They aren't really exit polls - I think they include some people interviewed after voting, but they are largely just a poll from the day of / before the elections (as releasing polls in the week prior to election day is illegal). |
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therealriga
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Post by therealriga on Jul 24, 2023 9:46:13 GMT
No. The upper chamber is pretty toothless in Spain too. They have essentially no power to change or block day-to-day legislation. The only time they really have any power is when constitutional changes are proposed. There are some interesting suggestions for it to be based on the autonomous communities as a move to federalising Spain but I doubt they will get anywhere. As edgbaston says upthread it's crazily disproportional to population, even with the automatic designations and it's the only way that 'empty Spain' can exert some influence so they won't give that up. Similarly, it's the only way to get the tiny (and sometimes bonkers) parties into the Cortes to allow and thus keep up the impression of social pluralism. Though it's not unusual for upper chambers to go for territorial representation. The "equal numbers of members for 50 provinces" thing is exactly what the US senate does. What does tend to go unnoticed is that there's a fair bit of malapportionment in the congress itself. For example, Teruel with 101,250 and Segovia with 115,810 people get 3 members, a ratio of 33750 and 38603 people per deputy, respectively. For the largest provinces, the ratios are 131,032 in Madrid, 125,824 in Barcelona and 120,644 in Valencia. In Barcelona's neighbouring province of Lleida, the ratio is only 72,488. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jul 24, 2023 9:48:18 GMT
Map of the change in PSOE vote. Annoyingly I think El País treated null / blank votes a little differently in the two elections, but it still gives you the basic picture. In terms of the main patterns: - Remarkably good performance in Cataluña, explained by nationalist voters both abstaining and switching directly to the PSC. - Also a strong night in the Basque Country. This is less obviously explicable, but it's probable that the 'Vox card' worked well in the non-Castilian areas. - Good results in Valencia and the Balearics are probably due to far-left unity. Popular regionalists ran alone last time (or with Más País), whereas this time they joined with Sumar. It looks like many of their voters went to PSOE instead. - The big increase in Cantabria is down to the left leaning regionalists not defending their seat, while in Melilla the collapse of Coalición por Melilla (a Muslim party hit recently by corruption scandals) benefitted the left. - A strong increase in the Canaries is matched by a poor result there for Sumar, but the reasons for this aren't entirely obvious to me. - A poor night in Galicia, where Feijóo got a favoured son vote (also worth noting that Sumar leader Díaz is Gallega, but this doesn't appear to have shown up in the results), and the left leaning Galician nationalists have improved, though possibly by less than expected. - Drift to the right in Andalucía continues to be a bit of a problem for the Socialists. - The good result in Teruel can be explained by the fall of Teruel Existe, while the big fall in Soria is due to the intervention of Soria Ya.  |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 24, 2023 10:59:45 GMT
Awkward moment at the PP victory party where the crowd started chanting for Ayuso part way through Feijóo's speech. The footage is very The Thick Of It: he looks as if he's dying inside and she's not even bothering to disguise her delight... I've not been following this closely, so I don't know who Faijóo and Ayuso are apart from just that they are prominent members of the People's Party. What's the significance of this particularly? It reminds me of the ovation of Mo Mowlam during Tony Blair's speech. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Jul 24, 2023 11:08:00 GMT
The footage is very The Thick Of It: he looks as if he's dying inside and she's not even bothering to disguise her delight... I've not been following this closely, so I don't know who Faijóo and Ayuso are apart from just that they are prominent members of the People's Party. What's the significance of this particularly? It reminds me of the ovation of Mo Mowlam during Tony Blair's speech. Gordon Brown leads the Labour Party into the 1997 election and fails to win an overall majority. As he adresses the party faithful, Bambi Blair can barely disguise his delight. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Jul 24, 2023 11:17:21 GMT
Feijóo is very much on the moderate wing of his party. During the campaign, he made it plain that he would only work with Vox if his hands were completely tied. One of the reasons why he didn't turn up to some of the TV debates is that he didn't want to be seen as sharing a joint platform with Abascal. Ayuso is from the hard right faction, who are much more relaxed about working with Vox. For a successful coalition between the two parties (and after another election when they can get enough votes) the PP will probably need a more sympathetic leader to the junior partners.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 24, 2023 11:21:37 GMT
I think I'm in love with her
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 24, 2023 12:10:54 GMT
There are some interesting suggestions for it to be based on the autonomous communities as a move to federalising Spain but I doubt they will get anywhere. As edgbaston says upthread it's crazily disproportional to population, even with the automatic designations and it's the only way that 'empty Spain' can exert some influence so they won't give that up. Similarly, it's the only way to get the tiny (and sometimes bonkers) parties into the Cortes to allow and thus keep up the impression of social pluralism. Though it's not unusual for upper chambers to go for territorial representation. The "equal numbers of members for 50 provinces" thing is exactly what the US senate does. What does tend to go unnoticed is that there's a fair bit of malapportionment in the congress itself. For example, Teruel with 101,250 and Segovia with 115,810 people get 3 members, a ratio of 33750 and 38603 people per deputy, respectively. For the largest provinces, the ratios are 131,032 in Madrid, 125,824 in Barcelona and 120,644 in Valencia. In Barcelona's neighbouring province of Lleida, the ratio is only 72,488. Soria must be pretty low as well. There was a local party there too but they didn't get in. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 24, 2023 12:15:12 GMT
There are some interesting suggestions for it to be based on the autonomous communities as a move to federalising Spain but I doubt they will get anywhere. As edgbaston says upthread it's crazily disproportional to population, even with the automatic designations and it's the only way that 'empty Spain' can exert some influence so they won't give that up. Similarly, it's the only way to get the tiny (and sometimes bonkers) parties into the Cortes to allow and thus keep up the impression of social pluralism. Though it's not unusual for upper chambers to go for territorial representation. The "equal numbers of members for 50 provinces" thing is exactly what the US senate does. What does tend to go unnoticed is that there's a fair bit of malapportionment in the congress itself. For example, Teruel with 101,250 and Segovia with 115,810 people get 3 members, a ratio of 33750 and 38603 people per deputy, respectively. For the largest provinces, the ratios are 131,032 in Madrid, 125,824 in Barcelona and 120,644 in Valencia. In Barcelona's neighbouring province of Lleida, the ratio is only 72,488. Why is this - is it a case of ‘3 members minimum per province’ If so this must not apply to the two Moroccan possessions. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 24, 2023 12:18:59 GMT
I think I'm in love with her Spain has a lot of good looking political leaders. I think the Spanish in general are quite a good looking people, though I’ve only ever been to Catalonia. |
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