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Post by batman on Dec 16, 2022 18:42:25 GMT
Rentoul again rubbishing the Labour result, it would appear. FWIW their score here was pretty much exactly what some recent MRP models have predicted. Also: does nobody seem to understand the idea of vote ceilings? Swings are always less pronounced in seats already held by the gaining party. +9% here could easily be +15% in a marginal seat with lots of swing voters. I really don't think he understands all that much about politics, certainly not for someone who makes his living writing about the subject. |
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Post by batman on Dec 16, 2022 18:45:40 GMT
Results reflected the polls as things stand. If an election was held now, we'd be looking at a large Labour majority. I don't doubt there'll be a narrowing once we're in a general election season, but there is as yet no significant sign nor guarantee it is happening. Half the pundits are saying this. Half are saying that Labour will be just short of a majority. The difference seems to be what you do to Don't Knows. A lot of voters have shifted from Con to DK, which is why Labour have big leads in the polls. What makes you think when forced to choose they won't just go back to Con? obviously some will, but some won't, because they're not happy with the way things are; some will vote for other parties & some won't vote at all. Of course not all ex-Tory don't knows will vote Conservative again next time. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Dec 16, 2022 22:12:20 GMT
Ren-TOOL is more applicable
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Post by batman on Dec 16, 2022 22:47:07 GMT
indeed, I use it frequently.
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