neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Dec 16, 2022 9:07:23 GMT
Steve Topping from MEN at count, a single tweet so far :- link Haven't found anything on Trafford council web site. Result to be posted here, perhaps? link I guess Sky news, Radio5Live & BBC news will cover result, but I don't hold out much hope of some background analysis. Bizarrely, the local radio station, Hits Radio News, seem to be Tweeting from the count (@hitsmcrnews); they’ve already got an interview with Lucy Powell up. As they’re counting at Old Trafford the result could be very late depending on how much Fergietime there is… It is good to see local radio coverage (in Chesham that volunteer station was the only media outlet there), but also rather annoying that there are no by election specials. It isn't like the BBC is miles away. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Dec 16, 2022 9:10:51 GMT
Bizarrely, the local radio station, Hits Radio News, seem to be Tweeting from the count (@hitsmcrnews); they’ve already got an interview with Lucy Powell up. As they’re counting at Old Trafford the result could be very late depending on how much Fergietime there is… It is good to see local radio coverage (in Chesham that volunteer station was the only media outlet there), but also rather annoying that there are no by election specials. It isn't like the BBC is miles away. I don’t think the BBC even carried the result; they were interviewing some American who doesn’t like feeling feminine and by the time I’d got to Sky News the Mayor was reading the SDP candidate’s numbers. |
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Dec 16, 2022 10:02:44 GMT
It is good to see local radio coverage (in Chesham that volunteer station was the only media outlet there), but also rather annoying that there are no by election specials. It isn't like the BBC is miles away. I don’t think the BBC even carried the result; they were interviewing some American who doesn’t like feeling feminine and by the time I’d got to Sky News the Mayor was reading the SDP candidate’s numbers. Oh it was the Mayor? I suppose they don't get the chance that often, and if it was my civic year I would. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 16, 2022 10:27:31 GMT
It is good to see local radio coverage (in Chesham that volunteer station was the only media outlet there), but also rather annoying that there are no by election specials. It isn't like the BBC is miles away. I don’t think the BBC even carried the result; they were interviewing some American who doesn’t like feeling feminine and by the time I’d got to Sky News the Mayor was reading the SDP candidate’s numbers. IIRC the BBC didn't show the Chester result live either (though Sky did) |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Dec 16, 2022 10:33:22 GMT
I don’t think the BBC even carried the result; they were interviewing some American who doesn’t like feeling feminine and by the time I’d got to Sky News the Mayor was reading the SDP candidate’s numbers. Oh it was the Mayor? I suppose they don't get the chance that often, and if it was my civic year I would. I only caught his last few seconds of fame, but he’d got a chain on, so I presume so yes. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Dec 16, 2022 10:35:26 GMT
I don’t think the BBC even carried the result; they were interviewing some American who doesn’t like feeling feminine and by the time I’d got to Sky News the Mayor was reading the SDP candidate’s numbers. IIRC the BBC didn't show the Chester result live either (though Sky did) I presume it’s connected to the merger of BBC News Channel with BBC World that we’re getting the latter’s feed through the night and they didn’t feel a by-election was a “significant development” worthy of breaking away from. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 16, 2022 10:44:09 GMT
Rentoul again rubbishing the Labour result, it would appear.
FWIW their score here was pretty much exactly what some recent MRP models have predicted.
|
|
|
|
Post by edgbaston on Dec 16, 2022 11:34:55 GMT
Rentoul again rubbishing the Labour result, it would appear. FWIW their score here was pretty much exactly what some recent MRP models have predicted. Also: does nobody seem to understand the idea of vote ceilings? Swings are always less pronounced in seats already held by the gaining party. +9% here could easily be +15% in a marginal seat with lots of swing voters. |
|
|
|
Post by Ben Walker on Dec 16, 2022 11:40:32 GMT
Rentoul's contrarianism is disappointing. Either he's changed or I've just grown up, because I found him very compelling in my earlier years. Peter Kellner's own write-up of Chester, too, was surprisingly opaque.
Results reflected the polls as things stand. If an election was held now, we'd be looking at a large Labour majority. I don't doubt there'll be a narrowing once we're in a general election season, but there is as yet no significant sign nor guarantee it is happening.
|
|
|
|
Post by Ben Walker on Dec 16, 2022 11:44:12 GMT
Rentoul again rubbishing the Labour result, it would appear. FWIW their score here was pretty much exactly what some recent MRP models have predicted. Also: does nobody seem to understand the idea of vote ceilings? Swings are always less pronounced in seats already held by the gaining party. +9% here could easily be +15% in a marginal seat with lots of swing voters. Very much this. My own model, which tries to account for the presence of swing voters, forecast Lab up 9pts on 2019 here (0.1pts off the result), whereas in Chester I had Lab up 12. In Altrincham and Sale West I have Lab on course to be up 16pts. This shouldn't be hard to understand. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Dec 16, 2022 11:55:09 GMT
Rentoul's contrarianism is disappointing. Either he's changed or I've just grown up, because I found him very compelling in my earlier years. Peter Kellner's own write-up of Chester, too, was surprisingly opaque. Results reflected the polls as things stand. If an election was held now, we'd be looking at a large Labour majority. I don't doubt there'll be a narrowing once we're in a general election season, but there is as yet no significant sign nor guarantee it is happening. I haven’t read his entire column, but the paragraph on his Twitter suggests that’s what he’s saying - safe Labour seat, not much room for upside, no sign of Tories bottoming out, and, like City of Chester, unwise to read too much unless/until we get another Wakefield type Labour/Tory competitive seat. |
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on Dec 16, 2022 13:00:05 GMT
Results reflected the polls as things stand. If an election was held now, we'd be looking at a large Labour majority. I don't doubt there'll be a narrowing once we're in a general election season, but there is as yet no significant sign nor guarantee it is happening. Half the pundits are saying this. Half are saying that Labour will be just short of a majority. The difference seems to be what you do to Don't Knows. A lot of voters have shifted from Con to DK, which is why Labour have big leads in the polls. What makes you think when forced to choose they won't just go back to Con? |
|
|
|
Post by Ben Walker on Dec 16, 2022 13:12:54 GMT
Results reflected the polls as things stand. If an election was held now, we'd be looking at a large Labour majority. I don't doubt there'll be a narrowing once we're in a general election season, but there is as yet no significant sign nor guarantee it is happening. Half the pundits are saying this. Half are saying that Labour will be just short of a majority. The difference seems to be what you do to Don't Knows. A lot of voters have shifted from Con to DK, which is why Labour have big leads in the polls. What makes you think when forced to choose they won't just go back to Con? Indeed. Historically, governing parties increase their base support by 10% from mid term parl polls to election day. So if, as an example, you're right now having only 50% of Tory 2019'ers publicly out for you, you'll likely end up with 55% by election day. That may not seem like a lot, but it's what happened for Johnson in 19, Cameron in 15, and Brown in 10. I have a piece out later today expanding on this. But long story short: factor even for that and you still end up with a Lab majority. Cons now have to be doing something other than just rallying the base to deny Lab a win. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 16, 2022 13:17:26 GMT
Results reflected the polls as things stand. If an election was held now, we'd be looking at a large Labour majority. I don't doubt there'll be a narrowing once we're in a general election season, but there is as yet no significant sign nor guarantee it is happening. Half the pundits are saying this. Half are saying that Labour will be just short of a majority. The difference seems to be what you do to Don't Knows. A lot of voters have shifted from Con to DK, which is why Labour have big leads in the polls. What makes you think when forced to choose they won't just go back to Con? Even pollsters that factor the DKs in (ie assuming they will mostly go back to the Tories if they have voted for them before) are showing Labour on course for an outright win, though. The number of Con to Lab switchers *currently* is comfortably enough for the latter to win a majority. |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Dec 16, 2022 13:20:56 GMT
It is good to see local radio coverage (in Chesham that volunteer station was the only media outlet there), but also rather annoying that there are no by election specials. It isn't like the BBC is miles away. I don’t think the BBC even carried the result; they were interviewing some American who doesn’t like feeling feminine and by the time I’d got to Sky News the Mayor was reading the SDP candidate’s numbers. That’s the reason why all sensible people have been routinely watching all parliamentary by-election results on Sky News (and not the BBC News channel) for the last decade. |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Dec 16, 2022 13:24:18 GMT
The swing which happened in the by-election in Hartlepool
if applied to Stretford & Urmston:
Con 50%
Lab 41%
Reform -21%
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Dec 16, 2022 13:24:31 GMT
I don’t think the BBC even carried the result; they were interviewing some American who doesn’t like feeling feminine and by the time I’d got to Sky News the Mayor was reading the SDP candidate’s numbers. That’s the reason why all sensible people have been routinely watching all parliamentary by-election results on Sky News (and not the BBC News channel) for the last decade. Indeed, I only put BBC News Channel first as I was scrolling through Midlands Today on the iPlayer at the time as one of my ex-work colleagues was featured. I do normally put Sky News on despite wanting to smack Jon Craig with a blunt instrument. |
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Dec 16, 2022 15:26:34 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 16, 2022 15:36:51 GMT
I will. I'm working on other things at the moment. The thing is the swing isn't that large as has been discussed because it was already a very safe Labour seat and UNS isn't very helpful in these cases. I do tend to use the Butler swing on these because that is the generally accepted method, even though it can result in negative votes for parties (the Conservatives would have had a negative vote share in several Liverpool seats based on the Chester swing for example). That is why I have tended to prefer the proportionate swing, which is to say a drop in the Conservative share of 11.6% in S&U is not equivalent to a drop of that amount nationally - it is a loss of 42% of vote share which equates to a drop of 18% nationally (these points have already been made upthread). Anyway I will do a map in due course using the 'traditional' method, but I don't think it would be all that good a guide |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 16, 2022 16:32:40 GMT
So yeah - no Labour majority. Obviously a proportionate swing would paint a very different picture. It's just a bit of fun..   |
|
