Prediction Competition November 2022

[peterl]

Want to get mine in early this week.

Thursday November 3rd 2022

CROYDON LBC; Selsdon Vale & Forestdale: Con 40, Lab 28, ND 14, Grn 10, LD 8
LICHFIELD DC; Chasetown: Lab 56, Con 44
MORAY UA; Buckie: SNP 32, LD 25, Con 19, ND 14, Lab 10 (SNP Win)
NOTTINGHAMSHIRE CC; Eastwood: Lab 46, Con 42, Ind 12
SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE DC; Longstanton: LD 48, Con 26, Lab 12, Grn 9, Ind 5
WILTSHIRE UA; Salisbury St Pauls: LD 40, Lab 31, Con 29

[johnloony]

Oct 28, 2022 16:57:07 GMT peterl said:

Want to get mine in early this week.

Thursday November 3rd 2022

CROYDON LBC; Selsdon Vale & Forestdale: Con 45, Lab 31, ND 14, Grn 10
LICHFIELD DC; Chasetown: Lab 56, Con 44
MORAY UA; Buckie: SNP 32, LD 25, Con 19, ND 14, Lab 10 (SNP Win)
NOTTINGHAMSHIRE CC; Eastwood: Lab 46, Con 42, Ind 12
SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE DC; Longstanton: LD 48, Con 26, Lab 12, Grn 9, Ind 5
WILTSHIRE UA; Salisbury St Pauls: LD 40, Lab 31, Con 29

You missed out the Lib Dem in Croydon SVF

[peterl]

Oct 28, 2022 17:23:21 GMT johnloony said:

Oct 28, 2022 16:57:07 GMT peterl said:

Want to get mine in early this week.

Thursday November 3rd 2022

CROYDON LBC; Selsdon Vale & Forestdale: Con 45, Lab 31, ND 14, Grn 10
LICHFIELD DC; Chasetown: Lab 56, Con 44
MORAY UA; Buckie: SNP 32, LD 25, Con 19, ND 14, Lab 10 (SNP Win)
NOTTINGHAMSHIRE CC; Eastwood: Lab 46, Con 42, Ind 12
SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE DC; Longstanton: LD 48, Con 26, Lab 12, Grn 9, Ind 5
WILTSHIRE UA; Salisbury St Pauls: LD 40, Lab 31, Con 29

You missed out the Lib Dem in Croydon SVF

So I did, thanks!

[batman]

CROYDON, Selsdon Vale & Forestdale : C 43 Green 18 Lab 17 ND 15 LD 7

LICHFIELD, Chasetown : Lab 57 C 43

MORAY, Buckie : SNP 44 C 24 ND 13 LD 11 Lab 8. SNP win

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE, Eastwood : Lab 51 C 40 Ind 9

S.CAMBRIDGESHIRE, Longstanton : LD 49 C 24 Lab 12 Green 9 Ind 6

WILTSHIRE, Salisbury St Paul's : LD 43 C 31 Lab 26

[Tony Otim]

Oct 31, 2022 18:08:34 GMT batman said:

CROYDON, Selsdon Vale & Forestdale : C 43 Green 18 Lab 17 ND 15 LD 7

LICHFIELD, Chasetown : Lab 57 C 43

MORAY, Buckie : SNP 44 C 24 ND 13 LD 11 Lab . SNP win

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE, Eastwood : Lab 51 C 40 Ind 9

S.CAMBRIDGESHIRE, Longstanton : LD 49 C 24 Lab 12 Green 9 Ind 6

WILTSHIRE, Salisbury St Paul's : LD 43 C 31 Lab 26

You've missed the actual figure for Labour in Buckie...

[johnloony]

LICHFIELD: Con 48 Lab 52
MORAY: LD 20 Con 18 Lab 13 SNP 39 (-) 10
NOTTINGHAMSHIRE: Con 44 Lab 45 Ind 9
SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE: LD 46 Con 29 Lab 19 Grn 6
WILTSHIRE: Con 30 LD 38 Lab 32

P.S. This is the prediction I did for Croydon SVF two weeks ago (I'm not allowed to do a more recent prediction until after the close of poll):

I’m going to make my prediction for Croydon SVF (3rd November) early because it’s likely that I will get access to privileged information later on:

Croydon: Con 55 Grn 28 Lab 18 LD 5 Ind 4

[batman]

Oct 31, 2022 18:16:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 31, 2022 18:08:34 GMT batman said:

CROYDON, Selsdon Vale & Forestdale : C 43 Green 18 Lab 17 ND 15 LD 7

LICHFIELD, Chasetown : Lab 57 C 43

MORAY, Buckie : SNP 44 C 24 ND 13 LD 11 Lab . SNP win

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE, Eastwood : Lab 51 C 40 Ind 9

S.CAMBRIDGESHIRE, Longstanton : LD 49 C 24 Lab 12 Green 9 Ind 6

WILTSHIRE, Salisbury St Paul's : LD 43 C 31 Lab 26

You've missed the actual figure for Labour in Buckie...

thanks, it was in my head but somehow didn't make it on to the page     Sorted now.

[batman]

There's a City of London Corporation by-election on Thursday too, including Gordon Nardell standing for Labour. Is it necessary to make predictions for that too, in order for entries to be valid? (all the other candidates are Independents)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Nov 1, 2022 16:05:59 GMT batman said:

There's a City of London Corporation by-election on Thursday too, including Gordon Nardell standing for Labour. Is it necessary to make predictions for that too, in order for entries to be valid? (all the other candidates are Independents)

No, City of London elections aren't included. 

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 29 by-elections including a “double” by-election during November.

- 6 by-elections including the “double” election on 3 November
- 9 on 10 November
- 8 on 17 November
- 1 on 23 November (a Wednesday)
- 4 on 24 November
- 1 on 30 November (a Wednesday)

13 by-elections including the “double” are for District Councils, 3 of which including the “double” were last contested in May, 2 in a 2021 by-election with the last full election in 2019 and the remaining 8 in 2019
5 are for a unitary authority, 1 last contested in May, 3 in 2021 and 1 in 2019
3 are for Scottish councils, all of which were last contested in May
3 are for County Councils, all last contested in 2021
2 are for Metropolitan councils, both last contested in May
2 are for London borough councils, both last contested in May
1 is for a Welsh council last contested in May

Conservatives defend 16 seats, 7 following the death of the previous councillor, 8 a resignation (1 of which was sitting as an Independent) and a disqualification of a councillor sitting as an Independent
Labour defend 5 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 4 seats including both in the “double” election, all following resignations
Greens defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independents defend 2 seats, both following resignations
East Devon Independent Alliance defend 1 seat (although have not put up a candidate) following the death of the previous councillor
Ashfield Independents defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor

With all SOPNs bar one now published, there are 28 Labour candidates, 27 Conservatives, 16 Liberal Democrats, 11 Greens, 3 SNP, 2 Scottish Greens, and 1 apiece for Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Alba, National Housing Party, Scottish Socialists Party, Vectis Party, Freedom Alliance, Kingston Independent Residents Group and Ashfield Independents together with 8 Independents and 3 No Description contesting 11 seats
- a total of 107 candidates for 29 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election. Top vote for the double election, both first preference winner and winner after transfers to be specified for the Scottish contests, and as already mentioned the City of London by-election doesn’t form part of the competition.

[Tony Otim]

Croydon: Con 39.5; Grn 28.4; Lab 23.1; Pelling 5.8; LD 3.2
Lichfield: Lab 58.2; Con 41.8
Moray: SNP 50.1; Con 24.7; Houlden 19.7; Lab 3.8; LD 1.7
Nottinghamshire: Lab 51.8; Con 38.8; Oliver 9.4
South Cambridgeshire: LD 53.4; Con 20.5; Grn 10.2; Lab 9.1; Poyser 6.8
Wiltshire: LD 44.1; Lab 29.1; Con 26.7

[Robert Waller]

CROYDON, Selsdon Vale & Forestdale : C 44 Green 28 Lab 20 ND 4 LD 4

LICHFIELD, Chasetown : Lab 61 C 39

MORAY, Buckie : SNP 46 C 30 ND 8 LD 8 Lab 8. SNP win

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE, Eastwood : Lab 55 C 37 Ind 8

S.CAMBRIDGESHIRE, Longstanton : LD 56 C 18 Lab 8 Green 8 Ind 10

WILTSHIRE, Salisbury St Paul's : LD 50 C 24 Lab 26

[kevinf]

Croydon
Con 48, Green 22, Lab 12, ND 10, LibDem 8
Lichfield
Lab 60, Con 40
Moray
Con 35, SNP 33, LibDem 20, ND 6, Lab 6
Notts
Lab 60, Con 30, Ind 10
S Cambs
LibDem 50, Con 16, Green 15, Lab 12, Ind 7
Wilts
LibDem 50, Con 30, Lab 20

[Richard Cromwell]

Buckie, Moray

SNP	31%	Win
IND	26%
CON	23%
LDEM	11%
LAB	9%

Selsdon Vale & Forestdale, Croydon

CON	47%
LAB	26%
GRN	15%
LDEM	9%
IND	3%

Eastwood, Nottinghamshire

LAB	64%
CON	29%
IND	7%

Salisbury St Paul's, Wiltshire

LAB	40%
LDEM	35%
CON	25%

Chasetown, Lichfield

CON	71%
LAB	29%

Longstanton, South Cambridgeshire

LDEM	57%
LAB	20%
CON	14%
GRN	7%
IND	2%

[yellowperil]

Nov 2, 2022 9:16:32 GMT kevinf said:

Croydon
Con 48, Green 22, Lab 12, ND 10, LibDem 8
Lichfield
Lab 60, Con 40
Moray
Con 35, SNP 33, LibDem 20, ND 6, Lab 6
Notts
Lab 60, Con 30, Ind 10
S Cambs
LibDem 50, Con 16, Green 15, Lab 12, Ind 7
Wilts
LibDem 50, Con 30, Lab 20

You haven't indicated a winner in  Moray- do you intend that to be taken as Con?

[yellowperil]

Croydon, Selsdon & Forestdale:Con 45, Lab 20, LD 5, GP 25,ND 5.
Lichfield ,Chasetown: Con 40, Lab 60.
Moray, Buckie:Con 22, Lab 5, LD 10, SNP 43, ND 20. SNP to win.
Notts, Eastwood: Con35, Lab 55, Ind 10.
South Cambs, Longstanton: Con 15, Lab 13, LD 55, GP 9, Ind 8.
Wiltshire, Salisbury St Pauls: Con 23, Lab 27, LD 50.

[andrewp]

Croydon, Selsdon Vale and Forestdale. Con 46, Lab 22, Green 20, ND 6, LD 6
Lichfield. Chasetown. Lab 64, Con 36
Moray. Buckie. SNP 41, Con 25, Houlden 21, LD 8, Lab 5. SNP win
Notts, Eastwood. Lab 53, Con 33, Ind 14
South Cambs. Longstanton. LD 52, Con 15, Green 14, Ind 10, Lab 9
Wiltshire. Salisbury St Paul, LD 50, Lab 26, Con 24

[iainbhx]

Croydon LBC, Croydon, Selsdon Vale and Forestdale: Con 45, Lab 20, Grn 18, ND Pelling 10, LDm 7
Lichfield DC, Chasetown: Lab 62, Con 38
Moray SUA, Buckie: SNP 40, Con 30, ND Houlden 15, Lab 10, LDm 5 - SNP win
Nottinghamshire CC, Eastwood: Lab 47, Ind 30, Con 23
South Cambridgeshire DC, Longstanton: LDm 47, Grn 16, Con 14, Ind 13, Lab 10
Wiltshire UA, Salisbury St Paul: LDm 41, Lab 33, Con 26

[rightleaning]

Croydon, Selsdon Vale and Forestdale. Con 49, Lab 22, Green 16, LD 7, ND 6,
Lichfield. Chasetown. Lab 60, Con 40
Moray. Buckie. SNP 44, Con 25, Houlden 17, LD 8, Lab 6. SNP win
Notts, Eastwood. Lab 49, Con 36, Ind 15
South Cambs. Longstanton. LD 50, Con 17, Green 14, Ind 12, Lab 7
Wiltshire. Salisbury St Paul, LD 47, Con 29, Lab 24,

[robbienicoll]

11 entries to open the month. All on time, but with johnloony receiving 12 faults for a couple of addition errors and Tony Otim 0.1 for going slightly under in Wiltshire.

Selsdon Vale and Forestdale, Croydon: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 11.1% (Tony Otim) to 27% (johnloony and Right Leaning).

Chasetown, Lichfield: 10 Labour gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 4% (johnloony) to 28% (andrewp). Richard Cromwell Conservative hold with 42% majority.

Buckie, Moray: 10 SNP ahead on first preferences and winner after transfers, first preference majorities ranging from 5% (Richard Cromwell) to 25.4% (Tony Otim). Kevinf Conservatives ahead on first preferences (2% majority) and ultimate winner.

Eastwood, Nottinghamshire: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 1% (johnloony) to 35% (Richard Cromwell).

Longstanton, South Cambridgeshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with top vote majorities ranging from 17% (johnloony) to 40% (yellowperil).

Salisbury St Pauls, Wiltshire: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 6% (johnloony) to 24% (andrewp and Robert Waller). Richard Cromwell Labour gain with 5% majority.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajmr7EI1h691BSre4GQxqI9L-ODTKDDILUEPiqnbffY/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!