Prediction Competition November 2022

[rightleaning]

Braintree, Braintree South. Con 39, Lab 37, Green 24
Braintree, Coggeshall. Ind 60, Con 29, Lab 11
Broxtowe, Greasley. Con 46, Lab 43, LD 11
Burnley. Rose Hill with Burnley Wood. LD 52, Lab 22, Con 20, Green 6
Cannock Chase, Cannock West. Con 50, Lab 40, Green 10
East Devon, Newton Poppleford and Harpford. Ind 71, Con 22, Lab 7
Kingston. Green Lane and St James. Res 42, LD 39, Con 10, Lab 9
South Kesteven. Bourne East. Ind 40, Con 35, Lab 12, LD 7, Green 6
South Kesteven. Grantham St Wulframs, Con 38, Green 28, Ind 20, Lab 14

[iainbhx]

Braintree DC, Braintree South: Lab 43, Con 38, Grn 19
Braintree DC, Coggeshall: Ind 54, Con 28, Lab 18
Broxtowe DC, Greasley: Lab 47, Con 45, LDm 8
Burnley DC, Rose Hill with Burnley Wood: LDm 48, Lab 25, Con 16, Grn 11
Cannock Chase DC, Cannock West: Con 48, Lab 36, Grn 16
East Devon DC, Newton Poppleford and Harpford: Ind 64, Con 26, Lab 10
Kingston-upon-Thames LB, Green Lane & St James: LDm 38, KIRG 36, Con 17, Lab 9
South Kesteven DC, Bourne East: Ind 50, Con 28, Lab 11, LDm 6, Grn 5
South Kesteven DC, Grantham St Wulframs: Con 43, Grn 28, Lab 18, Ind 11

[robbienicoll]

11 entries this week, all on time with kevinf picking up 1 fault for going over in Coggeshall.

Braintree South, Braintree: 5 Conservative hold and 5 Labour gain, with Tony Otim Green gain.

Coggeshall, Braintree: 100% Independent (Abram) win, with majorities ranging from 24% (johnloony) to 41% (Tony Otim).

Greasley, Broxtowe: 7 Conservative hold, with iainbhx, johnloony, peterl and Richard Cromwell Labour gain.

Rosehill with Burnley Wood, Burnley: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 18% (johnloony) to 37% (peterl).

Cannock West, Cannock Chase: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (andrewp) to 29% (johnloony).

Newton Poppleford and Harpford, East Devon: 100% Independent (Burhop) gain from Independent East Devon Alliance, with majorities ranging from 2% (Richard Cromwell) to 70% (Robert Waller).

Green Lane and St James, Kingston upon Thames: 7 Liberal Democrat hold, with batman, kevinf, Richard Cromwell and Right Leaning Kingston Residents gain.

Bourne East, South Kesteven: 9 Independent (Johnson) gain from Conservative, johnloony Conservative hold and Richard Cromwell Labour gain.

Grantham St Wulfram's, South Kesteven: 10 Conservative hold, majorities ranging from 4% (Richard Cromwell) to 19% (johnloony). Kevinf Labour gain with 2% majority.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lw4D1Eh3f5YhmRMguSyoHELrob_zaFu48S4a1XSEhG4/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congrats to johnloony for winning an extremely hard week to predict!

[peterl]

Blackburn with Darwen: Lab 48 LD 27 Con 25
Bolsover: Lab 62 Con 38
Blackpool: Lab 57 Con 29 LD 14
Glasgow: SNP 41 Lab 36 Con 9 Green 6 LD 4 SSP 1 Alba 1 FrA 1 UKIP 1 (SNP Wins)
Oldham: Lab 57 Con 17 LD 12 NHP 9 Ind 5
Rhondda Cynon Taf: Lab 62 PC 22 Con 10 Green 6
Shetland: Ind 77 SNP 14 Green 9
Suffolk: Green 57 Con 29 Lab 14

[Dalek]

Nov 12, 2022 12:14:24 GMT peterl said:

Blackburn with Darwen: Lab 48 LD 27 Con 25
Bolsover: Lab 62 Con 38
Blackpool: Lab 57 Con 29 LD 14
Glasgow: SNP 41 Lab 36 Con 9 Green 6 LD 4 SSP 1 Alba 1 FrA 1 UKIP 1 (SNP Wins)
Oldham: Lab 57 Con 17 LD 12 NHP 9 Ind 5
Rhondda Cynon Taf: Lab 62 PC 22 Con 10 Green 6
Shetland: Ind 77 SNP 14 Green 9
Suffolk: Green 57 Con 29 Lab 14

Glasgow Linn Ward - Lab 46% SNP 28% Con 11% Others 15%

[batman]

BLACKBURN WITH DARWEN, Darwen S. : Lab 48 C 44 LD 8

BOLSOVER, Pinxton : Lab 64 C 36

BLACKPOOL, Greenlands : Lab 51 C 38 LD 11

GLASGOW, Linn : Lab 37 SNP 35 C 10 Green 6 LD 4 Alba 4 SSP 2 FA 1 UKIP 1. Labour win

OLDHAM, Hollinwood : Lab 63 C 19 LD 8 Ind 7 NHP 3

RHONDDA CYNON TAFF, Abercynon : Lab 70 PC 19 Green 7 C 4

SHETLAND, Shetland W. : Ind 59 Green 22 SNP 19

SUFFOLK, Beccles : Green 39 C 36 Lab 25

[kevinf]

Blackburn
Lab 45, Con 35, LibDem 20
Bolsover
Lab 58, Con 42
Blackpool
Lab 50, Con 39, LibDem 11
Glasgow
Lab 32, SNP 30, Green 15, Con 10, LibDem 8, Alba 2, ScotSoc 1.5, Ukip 1, Freedom O.5. Lab win
Oldham
Lab 50, LibDem 19, Con 16, NHP 9 , Ind 6
Rhondda
Lab 56, PC 19, Green 16, Con 9
Shetland
Ind 55, SNP 25, Green 20
Suffolk
Green 55, Con 30, Lab 15

[Tony Otim]

Blackburn: Con 43.5; Lab 42.1; LD 14.4
Bolsover: Lab 65.5; Con 34.5
Blackpool: Lab 53.0; Con 41.8; LD 5.2
Glasgow: Lab 36.6; SNP 36.2; Con 10.1; LD 7.4; Grn 6.8; Alba 1.3; UKIP 0.8; SSP 0.6; Freedom Alliance 0.2 (labour win)
Oldham: Lab 64.6; Con 14.4; Whitehead 7.7; LD 7.1; NHP 6.2
Rhondda Cynon Taf: Lab 59.7; PC 26; Con 9.2; Grn 5.1
Shetland: Robinson 63.3; Grn 21.6; SNP 15.1
Suffolk: Grn 60.9; Con 29.6; Lab 9.5

[Richard Cromwell]

Skipping this week, but I'll be back.

[andrewp]

Blackburn. Darwen South. Lab 44, Con 41, LD 15
Bolsover. Pinxton. Lab 64, Con 36
Blackpool. Greenlands. Lab 53, Con 37, LD 10
Glasgow. Linn. SNP 38, Lab 33, Con 10. LD 8, Green 7, Soc 2, Alba 1, UKIP 0.5, Freedom 0.5. SNP win
Oldham. Hollinwood. Lab 48,  Ind 20, Con 14, Ld 10, Housing 8
RCT, Abecynon. Lab 59, PC 30, Con 7, Green 4
Shetland, Shetland West Ind 65, SNP 24, Green 11
Suffolk. Beccles. Green 61, Con 30, Lab 9

[Robert Waller]

Blackburn, Darwen South. Lab 43, Con 41, LD 16

Bolsover, Pinxton. Lab 62, Con 38

Blackpool, Greenlands. Lab 54, Con 36, LD 10

Glasgow, Linn. SNP 37, Lab 36, Con 7, LD 7, Green 7, Soc 3, Alba 1.5, UKIP 0.5, Freedom 1. Lab win

Oldham, Hollinwood. Lab 60, Ind 8, Con 14, LD 10, Housing 8

Rhondda Cynon Taf, Abercynon. Lab 63, PC 25, Con 6, Green 6

Shetland, Shetland West. Ind 66, SNP 17, Green 17

Suffolkn Beccles. Green 50, Con 34, Lab 16

[yellowperil]

Blackburn & Darwen, Darwen S:Con 42, Lab 44, LD 14.
Bolsover, Pinxton: Con 34, Lab 66.
Blackpool,Greenlands:Con 36, Lab 55, LD 9.
Glasgow, Linn: Con 6, Lab 36, LD 6, GP 7,SNP 39, Alba 1, SSP 3, FA 1, UKIP 1, SNP win
Oldham,Hollingwood: Con 15, Lab 50, LD 11, NHP 9,Ind 15.
Rhondda CynonTaf: Con 5, Lab 60, GP 5, PC 30.
Shetland W: GP 15, SNP15 Ind 70, Ind win.
Suffolk,Beccles:Con 30, Lab 18,GP 52.

[iainbhx]

Blackburn & Darwen UA: Darwen South. Lab 45, Con 43, LDm 12
Bolsover DC, Pinxton: Lab 62, Con 38
Blackpool UA, Greenlands: Lab 54, Con 40, LDm 6
Glasgow SUA, Linn: SNP 37, Lab 35, LDm 10, Con 8, Grn 6, Soc 2, Alba 1, FA 0.7, UKIP 0.3. LAB win on Transfers
Oldham MBC, Hollinwood: Lab 48, Ind 18, LDm 16 Con 12, NHP 6
Rhondda Cynon Taf WUA, Abercynon: Lab 60, PC 28, Con 8, Grn 4
Shetland SUA, Shetland West: Ind 67, SNP 25, Grn 8 IND win on first count
Suffolk CC, Beccles: Grn 53, Con 35, Lab 12

[rightleaning]

Blackburn & Darwen, Darwen S: Con 44, Lab 40, LD 16
Bolsover, Pinxton: Lab 62, Con 38
Blackpool,Greenlands: Lab 58, Con 33, LD 9
Glasgow, Linn: SNP 38, Lab 35, Gn 9, Con 8, LD 5, SSP 2, Alba 1, FA 1, UKIP 1, SNP win
Oldham,Hollingwood: Lab 53, Con 17, Ind 14, LD 12, NHP 4,
Rhondda CynonTaf: Lab 56, PC 32, Gn 7, Con 5
Shetland W: Ind 72, Gn 17, SNP 11 Ind win.
Suffolk,Beccles: GP 49, Con 32, Lab 19

[robbienicoll]

10 entries this week, with Richard Cromwell taking a short break. All on time and correct.

Darwen South, Blackburn with Darwen: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, with Right Leaning and Tony Otim Conservative hold.

Pinxton, Bolsover: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 16% (kevinf) to 32% (yellowperil).

Greenlands, Blackpool: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 11% (kevinf) to 28% (peterl).

Linn, Glasgow: 5 have SNP ahead on first preferences and gaining from Labour after transfers, with batman, kevinf and Tony Otim Labour ahead on first preferences and holding after transfers, and iainbhx and Robert Waller SNP ahead on first preferences but Labour winning after transfers.

Hollinwood, Oldham: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 28% (andrewp) to 50.2% (Tony Otim).

Abercynon, Rhondda Cynon Taf: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 24% (Right Leaning) to 51% (batman).

Shetland West, Shetland: 100% Independent (Robinson) win on first preferences, with majorities ranging from 30% (kevinf) to 70% (johnloony).

Beccles, Suffolk: 100% Green hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (batman) to 31.3% (Tony Otim).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NUM1X-JBgvcm1KNTrMQfFPbz_Z6QrMlut2zvgW24qOM/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Rough calculations after end of overnight declarations suggest to me that Tony Otim may be ahead for the week, with iainbhx maintaining his monthly lead from andrewp, batman and Tony ...

But a) that's all paper and mental arithmetic and b) Shetland to come!

[yellowperil]

I seem to be going from bad to worse. With a bit of luck I'll stay in the top 10 after Shetland, but not much when there are only 11 to start with...

edit : I see that was a miscount and really it was only out of 10 after Richard pulled out of this week. I still think I'm struggling to make the top 10 at the moment.

[Robert Waller]

Nov 18, 2022 9:37:14 GMT yellowperil said:

I seem to be going from bad to worse. With a bit of luck I'll stay in the top 10 after Shetland, but not much when there are only 11 to start with...

edit : I see that was a miscount and really it was only out of 10 after Richard pulled out of this week. I still think I'm struggling to make the top 10 at the moment.

WE'll see when Shetland and Robbie's official figures come in, but I reckon you're 6th for the week and 7th for the month at the moment ...

[batman]

I haven't won this week but at least I have managed to pick the correct winner in every contest, assuming the Independent wins in Shetland. Beccles & Oldham my worst attempts but nobody really saw the close finish in the latter coming.