Prediction Competition November 2022

[batman]

Nov 24, 2022 6:04:23 GMT rightleaning said:

Whoops forgot Ashfield.

Bassetlaw DC, Sutton: Con 44, Lab 42 LD 14
Isle of Wight UA, Brighston, Calborne & Shelfleet: Gn 36, Con 33, Lm 25, Lab 4, Vectis 2
Sefton MBC, Linacre: Lab 87 N-I Smith 13
Warrington UA, Rixton & Woolston: Lab 53, Con 32, LD 15

wish I had forgotten Ashfield too

[robbienicoll]

My broadband was down last night so unfortunately didn't get the Ashfield result up. Have condensed it into the same document for easy reading.

11 entries for this week, with Richard Cromwell returning after a week off and jm I think after quite a while longer, yellowperil will hopefully be back in January. Right Leaning missed the Ashfield contest so scores the 100 fault penalty, and Tony Otim and Robert Waller receive 0.1 and 1 fault apiece for going under and over respectively in the Isle of Wight.

Hucknall Central, Ashfield: 6 Labour gain from Ashfield Independent, with andrewp, kevinf, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Ashfield Ind hold.

Sutton, Bassetlaw: 9 Conservative hold, with jm Labour gain and Richard Cromwell Liberal Democrat gain.

Brighstone, Calbourne and Shalfleet, Isle of Wight: 7 Green gain from Conservative, with Richard Cromwell, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Liberal Democrat gain, and iainbhx Conservative hold.

Linacre, Sefton: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 46% (kevinf) to 90% (Richard Cromwell).

Rixton and Woolston, Warrington: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 10% (kevinf) to 30% (peterl).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1viR-jjTPSyFV1e50JpOqg8oyj2yPqcDmAtsEFJmCERs/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

We need the numbers from Bootle confirming, but I think that Tony Otim wins the week and iainbhx retains a narrow lead for the month.

[carlton43]

Nov 23, 2022 21:30:24 GMT Richard Cromwell said:

Brighstone, Calbourne & Shalfleet, Isle of Wight

LDEM	33%
CON	28%
GRN	27%
LAB	9%
Vectis	3%

Sutton, Bassetlaw

LDEM	63%
LAB	19%
CON	18%

Linacre, Sefton

LAB	95%
IND	5%

Rixton & Woolston, Warrington

LAB	56%
CON	28%
LDEM	16%

LOL x 1000

[batman]

It hasn't been a good week for me in the prediction competition either. My conclusion is that my predictions were right & the voters got it wrong

[batman]

More seriously, I'm guessing that there is some particular local issue which has provided such strong results for the Tories in that ward in Warrington, in a ward which surely must almost always vote Labour in general elections (perhaps not in 2019 though). In general Labour tend to do worse in boroughs they already control, but certainly not invariably. Same applies to the Lib Dems if recent weird by-election results are anything to go by, voters like to protest against local councils in by-elections sometimes.

[iainbhx]

Nov 25, 2022 0:27:43 GMT Robert Waller said:

We need the numbers from Bootle confirming, but I think that Tony Otim wins the week and iainbhx retains a narrow lead for the month.

All on the last one with about four people in the race.

[The Bishop]

Nov 25, 2022 8:45:02 GMT batman said:

More seriously, I'm guessing that there is some particular local issue which has provided such strong results for the Tories in that ward in Warrington, in a ward which surely must almost always vote Labour in general elections (perhaps not in 2019 though). In general Labour tend to do worse in boroughs they already control, but certainly not invariably. Same applies to the Lib Dems if recent weird by-election results are anything to go by, voters like to protest against local councils in by-elections sometimes.

And as I noted on the results thread, the LibDem score has tended to be squeezed in recent Tory/Labour contests - but that didn't happen there.

Maybe also suggests there was some local issue to bash the council on.

[andrewp]

Nov 25, 2022 8:45:02 GMT batman said:

More seriously, I'm guessing that there is some particular local issue which has provided such strong results for the Tories in that ward in Warrington, in a ward which surely must almost always vote Labour in general elections (perhaps not in 2019 though). In general Labour tend to do worse in boroughs they already control, but certainly not invariably. Same applies to the Lib Dems if recent weird by-election results are anything to go by, voters like to protest against local councils in by-elections sometimes.

Of the 50 gains made by all parties since the May elections, only 5 have been gains by the party already in overall control of a council.

2 by the Tories, from the LDs in Fareham and from the Greens in Epping Forest
3 by Labour. From an Ind in Chesterfield and the 2 recent ones in Blackburn and Bassetlaw.

Gaining an opposition seat in council that a party  already controls is not happening very often.

[The Bishop]

Blackpool last week as well for Labour? But the swing there was fairly modest, which does back up your more general point.

[andrewp]

Nov 25, 2022 11:04:11 GMT The Bishop said:

Blackpool last week as well for Labour? But the swing there was fairly modest, which does back up your more general point.

Blackpool is NOC, although has a minority Labour administration.

[The Bishop]

It returned a Labour majority in 2019 and is, as you say, still run by them.

[johnloony]

Surrey: Con 42 LD 35 Lab 15 RefUK 7 TUSC 1

[kevinf]

Surrey
LD 40, Con37, Lab 15, RefUK 6, Tusc 2

[rightleaning]

Surrey: Con 42, LD 37, Lab 15 RefUK 5 TUSC 1

[batman]

SURREY, Sunbury Common & Ashford Common : C 38 LD 32 Lab 22 Reform 6 TUSC 2

[peterl]

SURREY, Sunbury Common & Ashford Common : LD 40 C 35 Lab 18 Reform 5 TUSC 2

[andrewp]

Surrey. Sunbury Common and Ashford Common

LD 39, Con 33, Lab 21, Reform 5, TUSC 2

[Tony Otim]

Surrey: Con 37.7; LD 29.3; Lab 24.1; RefUK 5.8; TUSC 3.1

[iainbhx]

SURREY CC, Sunbury Common & Ashford Common : Con 35 LDm 30 Lab 27 REFUK 7 TUSC 1