Prediction Competition November 2022

[johnloony]

Nov 3, 2022 21:26:49 GMT robbienicoll said:

11 entries to open the month. All on time, but with johnloony receiving 12 faults for a couple of addition errors and …

Oh fungal bumpkins… I don’t know how that happened. I haven’t been predicting Croydon SVF normally because I’m not allowed to. Maybe my brain was travelling in two different directions at the same time.

[johnloony]

Nov 3, 2022 21:26:49 GMT robbienicoll said:

11 entries to open the month. All on time, but with johnloony receiving 12 faults for a couple of addition errors and Tony Otim 0.1 for going slightly under in Wiltshire.

Selsdon Vale and Forestdale, Croydon: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 11.1% (Tony Otim) to 27% (johnloony and Right Leaning).

Chasetown, Lichfield: 10 Labour gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 4% (johnloony) to 28% (andrewp). Richard Cromwell Conservative hold with 42% majority.

Buckie, Moray: 10 SNP ahead on first preferences and winner after transfers, first preference majorities ranging from 5% (Richard Cromwell) to 25.4% (Tony Otim). Kevinf Conservatives ahead on first preferences (2% majority) and ultimate winner.

Eastwood, Nottinghamshire: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 1% (johnloony) to 35% (Richard Cromwell).

Longstanton, South Cambridgeshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with top vote majorities ranging from 17% (johnloony) to 40% (yellowperil).

Salisbury St Pauls, Wiltshire: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 6% (johnloony) to 24% (andrewp and Robert Waller). Richard Cromwell Labour gain with 5% majority.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajmr7EI1h691BSre4GQxqI9L-ODTKDDILUEPiqnbffY/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

I’ve just noticed you’ve got my prediction as 0% for Ind in South Cambridgeshire, whereas my prediction missed it out completely. Should I get a penalty for missing it out, instead of it being 0?

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to iainbhx for continuing his winning run from last month and coming first for this week.
The only one who even considered what was happening in Eastwood, I suspect ...!

And thanks to robbienicoll fo getting the results finalised so promptly.

[kevinf]

Nov 4, 2022 14:00:06 GMT Robert Waller said:

Congratulations to iainbhx for continuing his winning run from last month and coming first for this week.
The only one who even considered what was happening in Eastwood, I suspect ...!

And thanks to robbienicoll fo getting the results finalised so promptly.

…and rathe4 bizarrely four of us got the same score in Salisbury

[Tony Otim]

Nov 1, 2022 21:05:41 GMT robbienicoll said:

There appears to be 28 by-elections including a “double” by-election during November.

- 6 by-elections including the “double” election on 3 November
- 9 on 10 November
- 8 on 17 November
- 1 on 23 November (a Wednesday)
- 4 on 24 November

13 by-elections including the “double” are for District Councils, 3 of which including the “double” were last contested in May, 2 in a 2021 by-election with the last full election in 2019 and the remaining 8 in 2019
5 are for a unitary authority, 1 last contested in May, 3 in 2021 and 1 in 2019
3 are for Scottish councils, all of which were last contested in May
2 are for Metropolitan councils, both last contested in May
2 are for London borough councils, both last contested in May
2 are for County Councils, both last contested in 2021
1 is for a Welsh council last contested in May

Conservatives defend 15 seats, 6 following the death of the previous councillor, 8 a resignation (1 of which was sitting as an Independent) and a disqualification of a councillor sitting as an Independent
Labour defend 5 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 4 seats including both in the “double” election, all following resignations
Greens defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independents defend 2 seats, both following resignations
East Devon Independent Alliance defend 1 seat (although have not put up a candidate) following the death of the previous councillor
Ashfield Independents defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor

With all SOPNs now published, there are 28 Labour candidates, 27 Conservatives, 16 Liberal Democrats, 11 Greens, 3 SNP, 2 Scottish Greens, and 1 apiece for Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Alba, National Housing Party, Scottish Socialists Party, Vectis Party, Freedom Alliance, Kingston Independent Residents Group and Ashfield Independents together with 8 Independents and 3 No Description contesting 11 seats
- a total of 107 candidates for 29 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election. Top vote for the double election, both first preference winner and winner after transfers to be specified for the Scottish contests, and as already mentioned the City of London by-election doesn’t form part of the competition.

Can I just clarify with robbienicoll - the Surrey CC by-election on 30th November - is that the last hurrah of the NOvember contest, or joined with the following day's by-elections as an early start for the December contest?

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to Iain for another week in which he stayed ahead of the  game  again- not quite true that he was the only one considering the possibility of the actual  Eastwood result- I also considered it, and came very close to making a late change there, but of course having considered it I firmly rejected it as nonsense.

Quite pleased to get a sub10 in Croydon, but paid for it in a lot of the others. I had also definitely thought of the possibility of a split Tory/LD result in SCam (as I like the think of of it as), but again rejected that as being unduly pessimistic.

[robbienicoll]

Nov 4, 2022 1:37:00 GMT johnloony said:

Nov 3, 2022 21:26:49 GMT robbienicoll said:

*snip*

I’ve just noticed you’ve got my prediction as 0% for Ind in South Cambridgeshire, whereas my prediction missed it out completely. Should I get a penalty for missing it out, instead of it being 0?

No, I count it as being 0 because often that's punishment enough with the percentage faults and if it doesn't add up to 100. I'll give thought to writing out the competition rules which can then be pinned, might be useful for myself and others.

[robbienicoll]

Nov 4, 2022 18:02:11 GMT Tony Otim said:

Nov 1, 2022 21:05:41 GMT robbienicoll said:

*snip*

Can I just clarify with robbienicoll - the Surrey CC by-election on 30th November - is that the last hurrah of the NOvember contest, or joined with the following day's by-elections as an early start for the December contest?

Surrey will be included with this month, hadn't checked Carolus' list on the other thread. Will add to the spiel now.

[johnloony]

I am doing all my predictions now for the next two weeks because my father's funeral will be on 15th November and my mind might not be concentrating on elections next week:

Braintree South: Lab 39 Con 33 Green 28
Braintree Coggleshall: Ind 53 Con 29 Lab 18
Broxtowe: Lab 47 Con 43 LD 10
Burnley: LD 46 Lab 28 Con 19 Green 7
Cannock Chase: Con 60 Lab 31 Green 9
East Devon: Ind 68 Con 23 Lab 9
Kingston-upon-Thames: LD 45 KIRG 37 Con 10 Lab 8
South Kesteven Bourne E: Con 34 Ind 24 Lab 19 LD 14 Green 9
South Kesteven GrStW: Con 46 Green 27 Ind 15 Lab 12

Blackburn with Darwen: Lab 43 Con 34 LD 23
Bolsover: Lab 65 Con 35
Blackpool: Lab 52 Con 38 LD 10
Glasgow: SNP 41 Lab 34 Con 11 Green 5 LD 5 SSP 2 Alba 1 FrA 0.6 UKIP 0.4
Oldham: Lab 61 Con 17 NHP 11 LD 7 Ind 4
Rhondda Cynon Taf: Lab 65 PC 19 Con 9 Green 7
Shetland: Ind 81 SNP 11 Green 8
Suffolk: Green 54 Con 35 Lab 11

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Condolences on your father's passing johnloony

I hope the funeral reflects his life well and helps you and your family celebrate it as part lof the process of moving forward with your own.

[batman]

I too pass on my condolences to you, John.

BRAINTREE, Braintree S. : Lab 44 C 40 Green 16

BRAINTREE, Coggeshall : Ind 59 Con 24 Lab 17

BROXTOWE, Greasley : Con 48 Lab 44 LD 8

BURNLEY, Rosehill with Burnley Wood : LD 56 Lab 27 Con 10 Green 7

CANNOCK CHASE, Cannock W. :  C   53  Lab  40  Green 7

E.DEVON, Newton Poppleford & Harpford : Ind 70 Con 24 Lab 6

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES, Green Lane & St James : KIRG 36 LD 35 Lab 15 C 14

S.KESTEVEN, Bourne E. : Ind 44 C 31 Lab 16 Green 5 LD 4

S.KESTEVEN, Grantham St Wulfram's : Con 42 Green 34 Ind 14 Lab 10

[kevinf]

Braintree, Braintree Sth
Con 38, Lab 37, Green 25
Braintree Coggeshall
Ind 60, Con 25, Lab 16
Broxtowe
Con 44, Lab 40, LibDem 16
Burnley
LibDem 50, Lab 25, Con 20, Green 5
Cannock Chase
Con 55, Lab 40, Green 5
East Devon
Ind 65, Con 20, Lab 15
Kingston
KIRG 40, LibDem 35, Con 15, Lab 10
S Kesteven Bourne
Ind 35, Con 30, LibDem 22, Lab 8, Green 5
S Kesteven Grantham
Green 40, Con 38, Ind 12, Lab 10

[Richard Cromwell]

Greasley, Broxtowe

LAB	49%
CON	41%
LDEM	10%

Rosehill with Burnley Wood, Burnley

LDEM	47%
LAB	33%
CON	14%
GRN	6%

Newton Poppleford & Harpford, East Devon

IND	41%
LAB	39%
CON	20%

Green Lane & St James, Kingston upon Thames

Kingston Independent Residents	40%
LDEM	34%
LAB	15%
CON	11%

Grantham St Wulfram's, South Kesteven

CON	39%
GRN	35%
LAB	23%
IND	3%

Cannock West, Cannock Chase

CON	52%
LAB	41%
GRN	7%

Bourne East, South Kesteven

LAB	40%
CON	34%
GRN	11%
IND	8%
LDEM	7%

Braintree South, Braintree

LAB	41%
CON	32%
GRN	27%

Coggeshall, Braintree

IND	60%
CON	21%
LAB	19%

[Tony Otim]

Nov 9, 2022 19:02:39 GMT Richard Cromwell said:

Greasley, Broxtowe

LAB	49%
CON	41%
LDEM	10%

Rosehill with Burnley Wood, Burnley

LDEM	47%
LAB	33%
CON	14%
GRN	6%

Newton Poppleford & Harpford, East Devon

IND	41%
LAB	39%
CON	20%

Green Lane & St James, Kingston upon Thames

Kingston Independent Residents	40%
LDEM	34%
LAB	15%
CON	11%

Grantham St Wulfram's, South Kesteven

CON	39%
GRN	35%
LAB	23%
IND	3%

Cannock West, Cannock Chase

CON	52%
LAB	41%
GRN	7%

Bourne East, South Kesteven

LAB	40%
CON	34%
GRN	11%
IND	8%
LDEM	7%

Braintree South, Braintree

LAB	41%
CON	32%
GRN	27%

Coggeshall, Braintree

GRN	60%
CON	21%
LAB	19%

You might want to look at our Coggeshall prediction - you've got a winning party who (kind of) don't have a candidate.

[Tony Otim]

Braintree South: Grn 35.2; Lab 32.7; Con 32.1
Coggeshall: Abram 63.7; Con 22.7; Lab 13.6
Broxtowe: Con 48.6; Lab 38.8; LD 12.6
Burnley: LD 54.0; Lab 25.9; Con 13.2; Grn 6.9
CannockChase: Con 53.0; Lab 33.4; Grn 13.6
East Devon: Burhop 77.7; Con 12.1; Lab 10.2
Kingston: LD 40.4; KIRG 38.1; Lab 11.4; Con 10.1
Bourne East: JOhnson 43.8; Con 29.0; Lab 14.3; LD 8.9; Grn 4.0
Grantham St Wulframs: Con 40.8; Grn 28.7; Harrison 15.8; Lab 14.7

[andrewp]

Braintree, Braintree South. Con 38, Lab 34, Green 28
Braintree, Coggeshall. Ind 55, Con 30, Lab 15
Broxtowe, Greasley. Con 47, Lab 43, LD 10
Burnley. Rose hill with Burnley Wood. LD 49, Lab 26, Con 18, Green 7
Cannock Chase, Cannock West. Con 45, Lab 41, Green 14
East Devon, Newton Poppleford and Harpford. Ind 73, Con 22, Lab 5
Kingston. Green Lane and St James. LD 42, Res 40, Con 9, Lab 9
South Kesteven. Bourne East. Ind 38, Con 35, Lab 15, LD 6, Green 6
South Kesteven. Grantham St Wulframs, Con 35, Green 28, Ind 21, Lab 16

[yellowperil]

Braintree, South: Con 36, Lab 37, GP 27.
Braintree, Coggeshall: Con 25, Lab 17, Ind 58.
Broxtowe, Greasley: Con 46,Lab 45, LD 9.
Burnley, Rose Hill etc: Con 18. Lab 23, LD 53, GP 6.
Cannock Chase, Cannock W: Con 50, Lab 40. GP 10.
East Devon,Newton Poppleford etc: Con 20, Lab 5, Ind 75.
Kingston, Green Lane etc: Con 11, Lab 8, LD 41, KIRG 40.
South Kesteven, Bourne E: Con 33, Lab 14, LD 6, GP 5, Ind 42. 
South Kesteven,Grantham St Wulframs: Con 36, Lab 14, LD 30, Ind 20. 

[Robert Waller]

Braintree, Braintree South. Con 40, Lab 28, Green 32

Braintree, Coggeshall. Ind 63, Con 25, Lab 12

Broxtowe, Greasley. Con 48, Lab 44, LD 8

Burnley, Rosehill with Burnley Wood. LD 57, Lab 30, Con 8, Green 5

Cannock Chase, Cannock West. Con 53, Lab 37, Green 10

East Devon, Newton Poppleford and Harpford. Ind 80, Con 10, Lab 10

Kingston, Green Lane and St James. LD 41, Res 39, Con 10, Lab 10

South Kesteven, Bourne East. Ind 39, Con 37, Lab 12, LD 6, Green 6

South Kesteven, Grantham St Wulframs. Con 42, Green 33, Ind 10, Lab 15

[peterl]

Braintree, Braintree South. Con 41, Green 35, Lab 24

Braintree, Coggeshall. Ind 61, Con 28, Lab 11

Broxtowe, Greasley. Lab 49, Con 44, LD 7

Burnley, Rosehill with Burnley Wood. LD 62, Lab 25, Con 7, Green 6

Cannock Chase, Cannock West. Con 56, Lab 32, Green 12

East Devon, Newton Poppleford and Harpford. Ind 75, Con 14, Lab 11

Kingston, Green Lane and St James. LD 43, Res 40, Lab 11, Con 6

South Kesteven, Bourne East. Ind 39, Con 37, Lab 10, Green 8, LD 6

South Kesteven, Grantham St Wulframs. Con 40, Green 35, Lab 13, Ind 12

[Richard Cromwell]

Nov 9, 2022 21:19:51 GMT Tony Otim said:

You might want to look at our Coggeshall prediction - you've got a winning party who (kind of) don't have a candidate.

Fixed. I don't know if I confused it with a different result or if it's just a typo. It's too late to interrogate, either way.