Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 7, 2022 15:37:06 GMT
Bridgnorth also has links with Telford, in that quite a few people live in one and work in the other. Telford also contains a lot of Wolverhampton/Black Country diaspora, with Wolves being well-supported there, to the detriment of AFC Telford United. Yes. Though Wolves were the main team in East Shropshire even before the establishment of the New Town: the old pre-collapse Telford United were originally Wellington Town, which explains a fair bit of that. Yes, if people have to go between the two they generally go via either Much Wenlock or (if they're really local) Monkhopton and then though the Corvedale. Going directly takes you over the (lower slopes of the) Brown Clee, of course. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 7, 2022 15:43:22 GMT
Yes, if people have to go between the two they generally go via either Much Wenlock or (if they're really local) Monkhopton and then though the Corvedale. Going directly takes you over the (lower slopes of the) Brown Clee, of course. Another alternative is to go south from Bridgnorth and then west via Cleobury Mortimer, which is lovely too. Fans of Chesterfield FC can compare twisted spires with St Mary's chuch, which my orchestra gives concerts in from time to time. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2022 16:15:45 GMT
I should think the Conservatives would be reasonably happy with this week, given their national polling. Isn't it the second week in a row where they did considerably better in local by-elections compared to the polls? Notwithstanding any local factors or considerations about polls, usually a majority of votes casted in local by-elections will be postal votes, so there is going to be some lag. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 7, 2022 16:17:47 GMT
Isn't it the second week in a row where they did considerably better in local by-elections compared to the polls? Notwithstanding any local factors or considerations about polls, usually a majority of votes casted in local by-elections will be postal votes, so there is going to be some lag. There were apparently about 800 postal votes cast in Sparkbrook, way short of a majority, and about 750 of those were for Labour. This was more than any other party got in total, but they then got another 1,400 to turn out on the day. The story here was about who came second, but given longer to campaign we could have got a bit closer. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 7, 2022 16:26:50 GMT
BCP Highcliffe and Walkford -Christchurch Independents HOLD Andy MARTIN (Christchurch Independents) 1778 Pete BROWN (LD) 571 Christopher Van Hagen (Conservative) 538 David STOKES (Labour) 163 Turnout 33.22% David Stokes, of the Bournemouth Labour family, candidate in in Bournemouth West in 2001, 2015, 2017 and 2019, stood in Bournemouth East in 2005 - his brother, Peter Stokes, was Labour candidate in Bournemouth East in 2015. |
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peterl
Green
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Post by peterl on Oct 7, 2022 17:24:02 GMT
middleenglander I will defer to peterl on this, but I would say that the Christchurch Ind score is comparable to the previous independent score in that ward. The Christchurch Independents weren't registered as a political party until 2021 but it's clearly the same group of people. Yes I can confirm that the previous councillor was a "Christchurch Independent" and sat as such on the council, even if on the ballot paper he would technically have been just "Independent". |
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 7, 2022 18:21:43 GMT
OK, I know that people don't like this metric for all sorts of perfectly valid reasons, but the cumulative change this week was Con -34.2; Lab + 5.6; Lib Dem + 32.1; Green -2.4.
Since the May elections the cumulative change in by-elections is Con - 216.6; Lab + 74.0; Lib Dem + 238.5; Green + 98.2. The cumulative results from Sept. 2021 to April 2022 were a better predictor of the results in the May elections than those of the election pundits.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2022 21:26:09 GMT
OK, I know that people don't like this metric for all sorts of perfectly valid reasons, but the cumulative change this week was Con -34.2; Lab + 5.6; Lib Dem + 32.1; Green -2.4. Since the May elections the cumulative change in by-elections is Con - 216.6; Lab + 74.0; Lib Dem + 238.5; Green + 98.2. The cumulative results from Sept. 2021 to April 2022 were a better predictor of the results in the May elections than those of the election pundits. My by-election number crunching always shows a clear line from results to election outcomes. Sometimes it takes geeks like us to show the direction of the wind before some people feel the chill. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Oct 7, 2022 21:30:57 GMT
More generally on our performance. We seem to be holding our defences pretty comfortably, and getting a decent increase in vote share where we aren't actually close to winning (see a number of contests this week) but we don't seem to be winning / gaining where we should have a good chance. It seems quite a while since we had any gains
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Post by spirit on Oct 7, 2022 22:42:16 GMT
Lampeter result PC 291 LD 268 Lab 160 Ind 18 Plaid gain from Labour This makes Ceredigion the only unitary authority in Wales without a Labour councillor. |
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Post by kevinf on Oct 7, 2022 23:20:30 GMT
BCP Highcliffe and Walkford -Christchurch Independents HOLD Andy MARTIN (Christchurch Independents) 1778 Pete BROWN (LD) 571 Christopher Van Hagen (Conservative) 538 David STOKES (Labour) 163 Turnout 33.22% David Stokes, of the Bournemouth Labour family, candidate in in Bournemouth West in 2001, 2015, 2017 and 2019, stood in Bournemouth East in 2005 - his brother, Peter Stokes, was Labour candidate in Bournemouth East in 2015. - He may need to dust off his rosette…. |
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peterl
Green
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Post by peterl on Oct 7, 2022 23:38:45 GMT
David Stokes, of the Bournemouth Labour family, candidate in in Bournemouth West in 2001, 2015, 2017 and 2019, stood in Bournemouth East in 2005 - his brother, Peter Stokes, was Labour candidate in Bournemouth East in 2015. - He may need to dust off his rosette…. Anyone who has tried and failed that many times deserves a break. Trust me, I know. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2022 9:19:58 GMT
I should think the Conservatives would be reasonably happy with this week, given their national polling. Isn't it the second week in a row where they did considerably better in local by-elections compared to the polls? They stood in five of the six byelections this week - in three of those their showing can reasonably be described as poor/very poor. They did OK in one contest, and held another by four votes in a seat they had always easily won before. The two Tory holds in Rossendale last week were better than anything this time round. But even then, their other results were at best "meh". It will indeed be interesting to see how they perform when pre-polling crash postal votes finally drop out of the equation. |
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Post by grahammurray on Oct 8, 2022 9:32:50 GMT
Isn't it the second week in a row where they did considerably better in local by-elections compared to the polls? They stood in five of the six byelections this week - in three of those their showing can reasonably be described as poor/very poor. They did OK in one contest, and held another by four votes in a seat they had always easily won before. The two Tory holds in Rossendale last week were better than anything this time round. But even then, their other results were at best "meh". It will indeed be interesting to see how they perform when pre-polling crash postal votes finally drop out of the equation. Also remembering that for all these contests there was no meaningful campaigning for the first fortnight. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 8, 2022 9:43:00 GMT
Isn't it the second week in a row where they did considerably better in local by-elections compared to the polls? They stood in five of the six byelections this week - in three of those their showing can reasonably be described as poor/very poor. They did OK in one contest, and held another by four votes in a seat they had always easily won before. The two Tory holds in Rossendale last week were better than anything this time round. But even then, their other results were at best "meh". It will indeed be interesting to see how they perform when pre-polling crash postal votes finally drop out of the equation. I make it that this forthcoming week is the last week for which there could have been any postal votes cast before the mini budget crash. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 8, 2022 10:12:19 GMT
A note on what would happen if national polls were reflected in local by election results
So taking an average national poll position at each of the 3 baseline sets of local elections of:
2019 Lab 30, Con 27, LD 12
2021 Con 40, Lab 38, LD 7
2022. Lab 41, Con 34, LD 10
And a current polling average of Lab 51, Con 24, LD 9
The uniform swing in local elections would be :
From 2019 contests, Con to Lab swing of 12%, pretty much no swing between Con and LD
From 2021 contests, Con to Lab swing of 15%, Con to LD swing of 9%
From 2022 contests, Con to Lab swing of 10%, Con to LD swing of 4.5%
Extrapolating that to recent results. Last week Labour ‘should’ have gained both Rossendale contests on national polling.
This week, all the English contests were won by who should have won per the polling.
Next week, Labour would gain the Gloucester seat by about 15% if national polling is reflected.
On 20 October, the Conservatives would hold the Broadland seat by about 3% on national polling, and Labour would gain the Monmouthshire seat.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Oct 9, 2022 13:43:22 GMT
Bridgnorth is nowhere near North Shropshire. Culturally it has as little in common with it as is possible to find in Shropshire - it looks more towards Wolverhampton (from where rather a lot of families moved to the town in the 1960s for... er... reasons...), Stourbridge, Kidderminster and so on. Incidentally, the town centre (known as High Town) is every bit as pretty as the equivalent district in Ludlow, though is not in this division. I disagree with this assessment. Bridgnorth has many commonalities (if not connections) with the redbrick market towns in NE Shropshire, such as Newport, Market Drayton and Whitchurch- Even Wem at a push. The social, cultural and historical drivers are much further removed from other settlements in the Ludlow constituency such as Clun, Bishops Castle or anywhere else west of the A49. A Shropshire with constituencies spilt east-west would have more cultural coherence than the current north-south split. But this can't happen with the current size rules without doing hideous things to the towns of Shrewsbury or Telford. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 9, 2022 20:11:58 GMT
Bridgnorth also has links with Telford, in that quite a few people live in one and work in the other. Telford also contains a lot of Wolverhampton/Black Country diaspora, with Wolves being well-supported there, to the detriment of AFC Telford United. Yes. Though Wolves were the main team in East Shropshire even before the establishment of the New Town: the old pre-collapse Telford United were originally Wellington Town, which explains a fair bit of that. My father lived in the Oakengates area (Ketley Bank and the Trench) until his late 20s apart from a spell in the RAF. Like virtually everyone else from there, he was a Wolves fan. Unlike some, he was very sympathetic to most other local teams including West Brom. That even applied to Walsall with their once infamous three-sided Fellows Park stadium where a laundry owned the land behind one goal and refused to sell. He told me that, at that end, the goal posts were 'painted on' the laundry wall. There were only two teams he really hated. One was Manchester United (from later after he moved the the North West) and the other was Wellington Town. He said that he hoped to live to see council houses built on their Bucks Head ground. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 9, 2022 20:31:21 GMT
Yes. Though Wolves were the main team in East Shropshire even before the establishment of the New Town: the old pre-collapse Telford United were originally Wellington Town, which explains a fair bit of that. My father lived in the Oakengates area (Ketley Bank and the Trench) until his late 20s apart from a spell in the RAF. Like virtually everyone else from there, he was a Wolves fan. Unlike some, he was very sympathetic to most other local teams including West Brom. That even applied to Walsall with their once infamous three-sided Fellows Park stadium where a laundry owned the land behind one goal and refused to sell. He told me that, at that end, the goal posts were 'painted on' the laundry wall. There were only two teams he really hated. One was Manchester United (from later after he moved the the North West) and the other was Wellington Town. He said that he hoped to live to see council houses built on their Bucks Head ground. The Bucks Head remains the home of AFC Telford United, and it seems unlikely to be redeveloped for any other purpose in the near or medium term. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 9, 2022 20:50:18 GMT
My father lived in the Oakengates area (Ketley Bank and the Trench) until his late 20s apart from a spell in the RAF. Like virtually everyone else from there, he was a Wolves fan. Unlike some, he was very sympathetic to most other local teams including West Brom. That even applied to Walsall with their once infamous three-sided Fellows Park stadium where a laundry owned the land behind one goal and refused to sell. He told me that, at that end, the goal posts were 'painted on' the laundry wall. There were only two teams he really hated. One was Manchester United (from later after he moved the the North West) and the other was Wellington Town. He said that he hoped to live to see council houses built on their Bucks Head ground. The Bucks Head remains the home of AFC Telford United, and it seems unlikely to be redeveloped for any other purpose in the near or medium term. Hardly as the Bucks Head Stadium was demolished in 2000 and later replaced by a new stadium. Also Telford United (the re-badged Wellingon Town) went bust at the end of the 2003-04 season and were replaced by a newco, club AFC Telford United. |
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