Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 7, 2022 11:33:42 GMT
The Conservative candidate in Mendip was also a previous councillor for the ward and maybe had some lasting personal appeal? It may have been enough to make 4 votes difference?
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Post by phil156 on Oct 7, 2022 11:35:55 GMT
BCP Highcliffe and Walkford -Christchurch Independents HOLD Andy MARTIN (Christchurch Independents) 1778 Pete BROWN (LD) 571 Christopher Van Hagen (Conservative) 538 David STOKES (Labour) 163 Turnout 33.22% You getting my disease Con 358 is what the council website has |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 7, 2022 11:39:51 GMT
I don’t think the drop to 20-25% in the national polls is quite being reflected in local polls ( yet?). Although as has been said, quite a few of these Conservative votes would have been cast 3 weeks ago. I am surprised the LD’s didn’t win Mendip. That general area was probably the best ares of Somerset for them in May. And a straight 2 way fight would have helped them too.. Based on the county results, I suspect that ward was very close in May, so probably not much movement since then. The LD candidate wasn’t as local as the Conservative was so that may have been decisive in a 4 vote win, although she is one of the County Councillors for these villages so would have some name recognition. I wonder just how much effort they (or the Tories) made given that the council goes the way of Monty Python’s parrot in six months; it was something of an exercise in futility, and not one repeated in areas such as Cumbria and other parts of Somerset who appear to be keeping vacancies unfilled. Fair point. It was a pretty pointless election. I still found Twitter and FB full of the usual LDs and (to a lesser extent ) Tories canvassing photos some effort was certainly made. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 7, 2022 11:41:17 GMT
The Conservative candidate in Mendip was also a previous councillor for the ward and maybe had some lasting personal appeal? It may have been enough to make 4 votes difference? Yes quite possibly. And, as has been said, he’s been the Leader of the CC, and possibly (?) leader of the district council too, as well as standing for PCC so he has some name recognition, albeit some of it may not be positive. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 7, 2022 11:44:43 GMT
BCP Highcliffe and Walkford -Christchurch Independents HOLD Andy MARTIN (Christchurch Independents) 1778 Pete BROWN (LD) 571 Christopher Van Hagen (Conservative) 538 David STOKES (Labour) 163 Turnout 33.22% You getting my disease Con 358 is what the council website has As does their Twitter feed which was my source; I must make that appointment with Specsavers 🙄 |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 7, 2022 11:47:02 GMT
I wonder just how much effort they (or the Tories) made given that the council goes the way of Monty Python’s parrot in six months; it was something of an exercise in futility, and not one repeated in areas such as Cumbria and other parts of Somerset who appear to be keeping vacancies unfilled. Fair point. It was a pretty pointless election. I still found Twitter and FB full of the usual LDs and (to a lesser extent ) Tories canvassing photos some effort was certainly made. Fair enough, but I wonder if it extended to shipping folk in from all over the place as you’d normally expect, or just the locals chasing their previous voters up? |
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Oct 7, 2022 11:57:14 GMT
I should think the Conservatives would be reasonably happy with this week, given their national polling. Written just after their vote slumped in Bournemouth  I wouldn't go overboard about it, especially given the number of postal votes cast weeks ago. Oops, completely misread the result when I was writing that post - thought it was Con on 1000+! |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Oct 7, 2022 11:58:48 GMT
It isn't in North Shropshire - it's in Ludlow It’s not in Ludlow. It’s in Bridgnorth. To be precise, it’s the ward where my sister used to live. Part of the problem is that the constituency which should be called “Shropshire South” or “Bridgnorth & Ludlow” is actually called “Ludlow”. In reality, Bridgnorth and Ludlow are each about 11,000 people and the rest of the constituency is dozens of villages and lots of countryside. I would have thought it fairly obvious John that I was referring to the name of the constituency |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Oct 7, 2022 12:07:28 GMT
I have heard little enough from Highcliffe, but if the Tories didn't campaign they are fools. With another councillor going independent earlier in the week, they are extremely vulnerable to a vote of no confidence right now, and after doing that to the Unity Alliance a couple of years ago, I would not be suprised if they were in the mood for revenge.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 7, 2022 12:21:36 GMT
It's been done before. I remember the year I got elected in Sandwell, we were defending in the neighbouring ward of Newton, and our "big" leaflet featuring a map of the ward with arrow to middle of ward and caption "Lib Dem candidates XXX's house", another arrow pointing in one direction labelled "5 miles to Sutton Coldfield where Labour candidate lives" and another arrow going in the other direction saying "Three miles to Oldbury where the Conservative candidate lives". We won So have I. Our candidate a X slap bang in the middle of the ward. Two arrows pointing off the map in the direction of the homes of the Labour and Conservative candidates. Why wouldn't one? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 7, 2022 12:28:35 GMT
The biggest question about Lampeter here in Ceredigion is "Is Dinah Mulholland, a former town councillor who resigned over the issue of a memorial that was denied planning for, as much as a Labour vote magnet as Hag Harris?" and the general opinion I have been getting is "No, nothing like", therefore if I was making an educated guess based on past voting intentions it's a fight between Plaid and the IndependentOh Harry. Why do you keep doing this to yourself? |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 7, 2022 12:55:42 GMT
GWBWI
PC +85
LDm +84
Grn -3
Lab -17
Con -76
ASV
PC +1.4
LDm +1.4
Grn -0.1
Lab -0.3
Con -1.3
I think the Welsh result is an obvious case where pure calculation doesn't work: the historical Labour position was down to a very established and high-profile individual, and that result alone ruins the weekly score for Labour, which would have been +102 without it. These are outside the scope of what I'm doing, and it's generally quite rare that those subjective factors are so obvious, so I'm not too worried.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 7, 2022 12:55:49 GMT
The biggest question about Lampeter here in Ceredigion is "Is Dinah Mulholland, a former town councillor who resigned over the issue of a memorial that was denied planning for, as much as a Labour vote magnet as Hag Harris?" and the general opinion I have been getting is "No, nothing like", therefore if I was making an educated guess based on past voting intentions it's a fight between Plaid and the IndependentOh Harry. Why do you keep doing this to yourself? Okay. He's no better than us who were doing the prediction competition. Nobody read that Lampeter by election with any degree of accuracy, and " educated guesses" showed more signs of guesswork than education. I'm pleased to say in the end it was more a fight between Plaid and the Lib Dems, but few of us saw that coming. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 7, 2022 13:21:00 GMT
It's been done before. I remember the year I got elected in Sandwell, we were defending in the neighbouring ward of Newton, and our "big" leaflet featuring a map of the ward with arrow to middle of ward and caption "Lib Dem candidates XXX's house", another arrow pointing in one direction labelled "5 miles to Sutton Coldfield where Labour candidate lives" and another arrow going in the other direction saying "Three miles to Oldbury where the Conservative candidate lives". We won So have I. Our candidate a X slap bang in the middle of the ward. Two arrows pointing off the map in the direction of the homes of the Labour and Conservative candidates. Why wouldn't one? The only time I've done that was in 2013, when it was pretty obviously a contest between me and the Con, and he put out a leaflet describing himself as 'the local candidate, living a short walk from the centre of town' (it was the town centre division). I had never made any secret of the fact I didn't live in the division, but as his house was visible from mine - but further away from the town centre than me by about 100m - I felt perfectly justified in putting out a leaflet in which I pointed this out. More generally, even in urban Worthing there are voters who consider this an key factor. I remember one voter who wanted exact addresses from all the candidates so she could measure it on a map (physical map, none of your online nonsense for Worthing!) |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 7, 2022 13:45:38 GMT
It’s not in Ludlow. It’s in Bridgnorth. To be precise, it’s the ward where my sister used to live. Part of the problem is that the constituency which should be called “Shropshire South” or “Bridgnorth & Ludlow” is actually called “Ludlow”. In reality, Bridgnorth and Ludlow are each about 11,000 people and the rest of the constituency is dozens of villages and lots of countryside. I would have thought it fairly obvious John that I was referring to the name of the constituency It wasn’t “fairly obvious”; it was completely, totally and mindbogglingly obvious with knobs on. That’s the whole point I was making. The whole point is that it is illogical, irrational, inconsistent and unfair to name the constituency “Ludlow” when logically it should be called “Shropshire South” (to be consistent with “Shropshire North”) or at least “Bridgnorth & Ludlow” (to give equal prominence to the two main towns). It might have been helpful if you had actually bothered to read what I actually wrote, instead of getting hysterical and hitting me on the head with an armadillo. |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 7, 2022 13:53:13 GMT
Birmingham: Sparkbrook & Balsall Heath East - Labour hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Labour | 2,410 | 69.6% | +2.0% | +1.4% | -9.3% | -9.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 517 | 14.9% | +10.6% | +10.9% | +11.2% | +11.5% | | Conservative | 305 | 8.8% | -14.6% | -14.0% | -4.2% | -4.3% | | Worker | 158 | 4.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 72 | 2.1% | -2.6% | -2.9% | -2.3% | -2.5% | | Total votes | 3,462 |
| 86% | 92% | 64% | 67% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 8¼% / 7¾% since May but Labour to Conservative 2½% since 2018 - Labour to Liberal Democrat 4¼% / 4¾% since May and 10% since 2018 Council now: 65 Labour, 22 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole: Highcliffe & Walkford - Christchurch Independent wins seat previously held by Independent | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Christchurch Independent | 1,778 | 62.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 571 | 19.9% | +9.5% | +9.3% | | Conservative | 358 | 12.5% | -20.1% | -19.5% | | Labour | 163 | 5.7% | -2.4% | -2.5% | | Independent |
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| -49.0% | -49.3% | | Total votes | 2,870 |
| 78% | 83% |
Swing: not meaningful unless Independent and Christchurch Independent are comparable Council now: 36 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat, 7 Christchurch Independent, 5 Poole Independent, 5 Poole Local Group, 4 Bournemouth Independent (2) and Green (2), 3 Labour, 2 Independent, 1 UKIP Ceredigion: Lampter - Plaid Cymru gain from Labour| Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | 2022 result | since 2017 ^ | since 2012 ^ | | Plaid Cymru | 291 | 39.5% |
| +22.2% | +26.1% | | Liberal Democrat | 268 | 36.4% |
| from nowhere | +29.7% | | Labour | 160 | 21.7% | unopposed | -25.6% | -23.3% | | Independent Cowles | 18 | 2.4% |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Williams |
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| -35.4% | -32.5% | | Conservative |
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| -2.5% | | Total votes | 737 |
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| not comparable | not comparable |
^ two seat ward in 2017 and 2012 on same boundaries with only 1 party / Independent candidate at each election Swing: not meaningful Council now: 21 Plaid Cymru, 9 Independent, 7 Liberal Democrat, 1 Gwlad Eastbourne: St Anthony - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | since 2021 County | | Liberal Democrat | 972 | 49.6% | -2.9% | -1.5% |
| -1.5% | | Conservative | 513 | 26.2% | +8.3% | +8.2% |
| -7.9% | | Green | 420 | 21.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| +16.1% | | UKIP | 55 | 2.8% | -7.5% | -8.4% |
| n / c | | Independent |
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| -9.8% | -10.6% |
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| | Labour |
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| -9.5% | -9.2% |
| -6.7% | | Total votes | 1,960 |
| 64% | 69% |
| 70% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 5½% / 4¾% since 2019 but Conservative to Liberal Democrat 3¼% since 2021 County Councilelections Council now: 18 Liberal Democrat, 8 Conservative, 1 Independent Mendip: Butleigh & Baltonsborough - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 | since 2015 | since 2011 | | Conservative | 393 | 50.3% | -2.3% | -10.6% | -14.0% | | Liberal Democrat | 389 | 49.7% | +16.5% | +10.6% | +14.0% | | Labour |
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| -14.2% |
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| | Total votes | 782 |
| 96% | 57% | 75% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 9½% since 2019, 10½% since 2015 and 14% since 2011 Council now: 23 Liberal Democrat, 12 Conservative, 10 Green, 1 Independent, 1 No Party Shropshire: Bridgnorth West & Tasley: Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | | Labour | 887 | 55.9% | +6.0% | +10.3% | +40.7% | +39.6% | | Conservative | 480 | 30.2% | -4.5% | -7.1% | -23.2% | -21.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 176 | 11.1% | -1.6% | -3.1% | -13.8% | -14.2% | | Green | 45 | 2.8% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -3.7% | -4.2% | | Total votes | 1,588 |
| 60% | 73% | 77% | 83% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 5¼% / 8¾% since 2021 and 32% / 30½% since 2017 Council now: 41 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 10 Labour, 4 Green, 4 Independent, 1 Unaffiliated
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 7, 2022 14:24:10 GMT
Bridgnorth is nowhere near North Shropshire. Culturally it has as little in common with it as is possible to find in Shropshire - it looks more towards Wolverhampton (from where rather a lot of families moved to the town in the 1960s for... er... reasons...), Stourbridge, Kidderminster and so on. Incidentally, the town centre (known as High Town) is every bit as pretty as the equivalent district in Ludlow, though is not in this division. Bridgnorth also has links with Telford, in that quite a few people live in one and work in the other. Telford also contains a lot of Wolverhampton/Black Country diaspora, with Wolves being well-supported there, to the detriment of AFC Telford United.
It's actually quite a hike across country from Bridgnorth to Ludlow, with no major A-road between them. The direct route is B4364, via Cleobury North. But the local countryside is gorgeous.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 7, 2022 14:41:11 GMT
I don’t think the drop to 20-25% in the national polls is quite being reflected in local polls ( yet?). Although as has been said, quite a few of these Conservative votes would have been cast 3 weeks ago. I am surprised the LD’s didn’t win Mendip. That general area was probably the best ares of Somerset for them in May. And a straight 2 way fight would have helped them too.. Based on the county results, I suspect that ward was very close in May, so probably not much movement since then. The LD candidate wasn’t as local as the Conservative was so that may have been decisive in a 4 vote win, although she is one of the County Councillors for these villages so would have some name recognition. It might help if you think of Butleigh and Baltonsborough as being the sort of places where parents send their kids to the very expensive Millfield School as day pupils. Quite. It is quite probable that this bit of the county division is the most Tory bit and therefore the rest was somewhat more Lib Dem in the elections in May. Remembering that 2019 was a very good election for us this advance is still very impressive. |
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 7, 2022 14:45:56 GMT
middleenglander I will defer to peterl on this, but I would say that the Christchurch Ind score is comparable to the previous independent score in that ward. The Christchurch Independents weren't registered as a political party until 2021 but it's clearly the same group of people.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 7, 2022 15:10:15 GMT
It might help if you think of Butleigh and Baltonsborough as being the sort of places where parents send their kids to the very expensive Millfield School as day pupils. Quite. It is quite probable that this bit of the county division is the most Tory bit and therefore the rest was somewhat more Lib Dem in the elections in May. Remembering that 2019 was a very good election for us this advance is still very impressive. My memory from the late '70s is that about a third of pupils at the school were day boys and girls from up to about a 20 mile radius around the school, but concentrated closer than that in general. This included children of teachers at the school, who got reduced fees, but there were many more day pupils than can have been accounted for by that. Butleigh and Baltonsborough is immediately to the ESE of the school. |
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