Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 7, 2022 0:01:09 GMT
I thought this would be a gain given where the polls are but the margin is quite something. This doesn't look like as big as a win as the polls would suggest given it's comparing to 2021. A solid win for sure, but nothing spectacular. I wonder if the postal votes landing a couple of weeks ago spared the Tories a real shellacking? I thought this would be a gain given where the polls are but the margin is quite something. Although the other ward councillor is Labour. The Labour councillor who topped the poll last year has built up a very high profile locally and took twice as many votes as the second placed Labour candidate (who happens to be the winner of this by-election) with the latter vote being closer to a 'normal' Labour vote in the division.* For that reason it is a wretched result for the Conservatives, much more so than a quick comparison with the percentages to the last election would suggest. *Though that's a purely hypothetical 'normal' as Labour had been massively underperforming there for well over a decade right up until last year. |
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Post by phil156 on Oct 7, 2022 0:14:44 GMT
Anyone know about Mendip  Only two standing surely its over by now |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Oct 7, 2022 0:19:31 GMT
Anyone know about Mendip Only two standing surely its over by now |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Oct 7, 2022 0:22:22 GMT
Anyone know about Mendip Only two standing surely its over by now Still nothig on @aldc website, so if nothing else, we know there has not yet been an LD win announced. |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 7, 2022 0:40:54 GMT
Anyone know about Mendip Only two standing surely its over by now Swing cannot be right at 17% as Conservative majority in 2019 was 19.3% so if majority is 4 votes then swing more like 9¼% |
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Post by grahammurray on Oct 7, 2022 0:59:37 GMT
Swing cannot be right at 17% as Conservative majority in 2019 was 19.3% so if majority is 4 votes then swing more like 9¼% It must mean a 17% increase in the Lib Dem vote. Which is not a swing but makes the maths correct. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 7, 2022 5:01:59 GMT
Lampeter result PC 291 LD 268 Lab 160 Ind 18 Plaid gain from Labour There are serious anomalies in these figures. There should be an election petition. The voters appear to have given too much consideration to local conditions, and to the personal qualities of the candidates, and not enough weight to the prediction competition. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 7, 2022 6:59:48 GMT
I think one could draw a nice graph of that Lampeter result, with one axis being miles lived from Lampeter town centre and the other axis being votes received. I think there is a correlation!
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Post by froome on Oct 7, 2022 7:07:05 GMT
I think one could draw a nice graph of that Lampeter result, with one axis being miles lived from Lampeter town centre and the other axis being votes received. I think there is a correlation! It would make a nice change from a barchart. I can see a Lib Dem leaflet having a large arrow pointing at the town and another with ALL OTHERS pointing off the edge of the leaflet.  |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Oct 7, 2022 7:20:51 GMT
It's been done before. I remember the year I got elected in Sandwell, we were defending in the neighbouring ward of Newton, and our "big" leaflet featuring a map of the ward with arrow to middle of ward and caption "Lib Dem candidates XXX's house", another arrow pointing in one direction labelled "5 miles to Sutton Coldfield where Labour candidate lives" and another arrow going in the other direction saying "Three miles to Oldbury where the Conservative candidate lives". We won
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Post by rockefeller on Oct 7, 2022 7:23:09 GMT
SHROPSHIRE, Bridgnorth West and Tasley - Lab gain from C Lab 887 C 480 LD 176 Grn 45 Labour voters returning home after voting LD in the by-election. Bodes well for Tories winning back North Shrops |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Oct 7, 2022 7:29:17 GMT
SHROPSHIRE, Bridgnorth West and Tasley - Lab gain from C Lab 887 C 480 LD 176 Grn 45 Labour voters returning home after voting LD in the by-election. Bodes well for Tories winning back North Shrops It isn't in North Shropshire - it's in Ludlow |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 7, 2022 7:30:52 GMT
Labour voters returning home after voting LD in the by-election. Bodes well for Tories winning back North Shrops It isn't in North Shropshire - it's in Ludlow You’d assume that the Lib Dems would have campaigned a bit harder, had it been in North Shropshire. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 7, 2022 8:00:27 GMT
Labour voters returning home after voting LD in the by-election. Bodes well for Tories winning back North Shrops It isn't in North Shropshire - it's in Ludlow It’s not in Ludlow. It’s in Bridgnorth. To be precise, it’s the ward where my sister used to live. Part of the problem is that the constituency which should be called “Shropshire South” or “Bridgnorth & Ludlow” is actually called “Ludlow”. In reality, Bridgnorth and Ludlow are each about 11,000 people and the rest of the constituency is dozens of villages and lots of countryside. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 7, 2022 8:13:47 GMT
Lampeter result PC 291 LD 268 Lab 160 Ind 18 Plaid gain from Labour That is actually quite suprising. There were a couple of unexpected Lib Dem gains in the locals from Plaid (Cardigan, Mwdlan and Llanfarian) and yet at the same time they had disasters such as a 15% drop in Morfa a Glais, Penparcau, Llanbadarn Fawr and to close to 30% here in Llanrhystud. Could it be that we have NEW and OLD Liberal Democrats, New Liberal Democrats who have joined since Brexit and OLD Liberal Democrats who joined pre Brexit? |
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Post by rockefeller on Oct 7, 2022 8:36:16 GMT
Labour voters returning home after voting LD in the by-election. Bodes well for Tories winning back North Shrops It isn't in North Shropshire - it's in Ludlow Why is one named with a compass point and the other a large town in the seat? (yes, trying to change the subject) |
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Post by rockefeller on Oct 7, 2022 8:36:43 GMT
Lampeter result PC 291 LD 268 Lab 160 Ind 18 Plaid gain from Labour Could it be that we have NEW and OLD Liberal Democrats, New Liberal Democrats who have joined since Brexit and OLD Liberal Democrats who joined pre Brexit? Obviously |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 7, 2022 8:37:53 GMT
Mendip, Butleigh and Baltonsborough
Ken Maddock, Con, 393
Claire Sully, LD, 389
Turnout 39%
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Post by phil156 on Oct 7, 2022 8:39:37 GMT
MENDIP RESULT
Con 393
Lab 389
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 7, 2022 8:40:19 GMT
It isn't in North Shropshire - it's in Ludlow Why is one named with a compass point and the other a large town in the seat? (yes, trying to change the subject) North Shropshire used to be called Oswestry, but in 1983 they added Newport which presumably prompted the name change. But when they removed Newport in 1997 they didn't change the name back. |
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Only two standing surely its over by now 
