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Post by johnloony on May 9, 2013 5:21:00 GMT
I sometimes wonder what the result of a by-election would be (either parliamentary or local) if either or both of the two [local] main parties (a) did lots of campaigning (b) did no campaigning or leafleting at all. FWIW, my question was prompted by the contrast between the two by-elections in New Addington ward in Croydon in 1997 and 2000, which had turnouts of 15% and 27% respectively. Until 2000 it had been a safe Labour ward, but in 2000 the Conservative Party campaigned hard and it has been a marginal ward since then. |
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Post by marksenior on May 9, 2013 9:36:37 GMT
I sometimes wonder what the result of a by-election would be (either parliamentary or local) if either or both of the two [local] main parties (a) did lots of campaigning (b) did no campaigning or leafleting at all. If you take a ward that at a GE votes 2,000 each for parties a and b , I would expect a result in your scenario of party a 1,300 party b 700 with no voters actually changing allegiance but the " swing " being down to differential turnout . The figures would however be modified depending as to which party was in power nationally and whether one party always has a tendency to turno out more or less in local elections than the other . |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 16, 2013 12:39:36 GMT
Has the new MP made her maiden speech yet??
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Jun 1, 2013 21:52:50 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2013 7:38:04 GMT
I suspect he never had a proper office set up
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 21, 2013 14:15:47 GMT
She finally took the plunge this week, during a debate on the arts and tourism.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Jul 26, 2013 21:09:21 GMT
Campaign spending www.shieldsgazette.com/news/revealed-the-cost-of-winning-and-losing-south-shields-by-election-1-5859924Labour £81,688 UKIP £47,704 LD £6,302 Con £5,292 Ind Darwood £2,701.91 Socialist £1,058.99 MRLP £403 BNP £399.99 Khan unclear (because his Unsolicited materials cost is higher than the total) The breakdown is interesting. Unsolicted materials (election leaflets/pamphlets etc) UKIP £33,485.61 Labour £25,293.64 Advertising UKIP £7,467.55 Labour £1,531.67 Agent/Staff Labour £48,786.88 UKIP £4,800 |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 26, 2013 22:37:00 GMT
Clear from the above that UKIP definitely have a byelection strategy. South Shields was not a particularly promising seat, their resources must be relatively limited, and they still spent nearly ten times the Conservatives.
(PS do the votes per pound calculation for the Liberal Democrats. Go on, I like a laugh)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2013 23:27:03 GMT
Campaign spending Agent/Staff Labour £48,786.88 UKIP £4,800 is that real money as in reality it is the CLP paying the central office for people who are already employed by the party ? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 7:27:02 GMT
Clear from the above that UKIP definitely have a byelection strategy. South Shields was not a particularly promising seat, their resources must be relatively limited, and they still spent nearly ten times the Conservatives. (PS do the votes per pound calculation for the Liberal Democrats. Go on, I like a laugh) |
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Post by Devonian on Jul 27, 2013 10:15:35 GMT
Clear from the above that UKIP definitely have a byelection strategy. South Shields was not a particularly promising seat, their resources must be relatively limited, and they still spent nearly ten times the Conservatives. Does anyone have records of previous by election campaign spending reports? Looking at this en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UKIP_election_results#By-electionsIt would appear the turnaround year for UKIP be elections was 2009. Apart from Bromley and Hartlepool their by election results were rubbish until 2008. Then from 2009 onwards a large and growing improvement. Does anyone if this is reflected in the spending records? |
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