Swedish Parliamentary Election 2022

[nelson]

Annie Lööf has stepped down as party leader. So definitely beating Dadgostar to it.

[nelson]

Basically Centre has been so dominated by Lööf that it's hard to predict who'll replace her and a lot of names have already been floated - some of them quite young and others with a local/internal or business organisation profile and internal strength but unknown nationally.

Loosely dividing the party into a rural/periphery interests wing, urban progressives and economic right wingers the following have been mentioned by commentators and analysts who are either affiliated with the party or otherwise know it well.

Rural wing:

Emil Källström (35) from Örnsköldsvik (pop. 33,000) in Ångermanland in the upper north, who left for a top job in the private sector last year. He was their economical-political spokesperson (a sort of general spokesperson, essentially no. 3 in the party after the chairman and group chairman) from October 2014 to August 2021). He's from the part of Sweden where Centre is traditionally the main centre-right party and view the SocDems as their main antagonists in "Red Norrland". Örnsköldsvik is an industrial town producing 3% of Sweden's export, a very high share for such a small place. Loves to talk about entrepreneurship. Fairly green but anti-SocDem. Less right wing and ideological on economics than Lööf, much more traditional Scandinavian centre-right than her Hayek, Nozick and Thatcher fandom, but less committed to socially libertarian pet projects and definitely not woke. Strong media performer. Most interpret his departure from politics as a protest against the party de facto joining the centre-left bloc, which may mean he's willing to return, but he's so far declined to comment on the matter. Rural centre-right.

Elisabeth Kristin Thand Ringqvist (50), ex-leader of their student org, advisor to former party leader Maud Olofsson, varied business career, CEO for the biggest employer organisation Företagerne 2011-15, newly elected MP, country girl from village in central Jämtland in the north. Rural centre-right.

Ulrika Liljeberg (40s), mayor of small industrial municipality Leksand (pop. 16,000) in Dalarna in the "lower north" for 14-years, newly elected MP. Very popular and respected internally. Rural centrist.

Daniel Bäckström (46), defence spokesperson, very solid work in the negotiations about the "reconstruction" of the Swedish military (which was cut to the bone), also spokesperson for rural affairs, from a 600 pop. village in Värmland near the border to SE Norway (southernmost county with wilderness areas). Working class background (security guard) and ex-councillor. Surprising suggestion, but I guess he'd signal anti-elite and non-business background. Rural centre-right.

Has declined, but may still get it:

Anders W. Jonsson (61), who ran for leader against Lööf in 2011 but withdrew after the party's electoral preparation committee (valberedning, a Swedish speciality that recommends one candidate for leader, who is then often elected unopposed) and subsequently was deputy leader 2011-21 says he won't run due to “being over 60", which many Centre supporters on social media are disappointed about.

Jonsson is a pediatrician and reportedly enjoy practicing medicine again after he stepped down as deputy leader last year. He's from Härjedalen in Norrland near the Norwegian border (Norwegian to 1645 and still speaking a Norwegian dialect), which is more than half the size of Wales but only has 10k inhabitants. One of the places in Scandinavia that's closest to being proper wilderness with bears, wolves, wolverines, lots of moose and eagles - from the village of Sveg with 2.500 inhabitants, the biggest settlement in Härjedalen.

If they can't find a candidate with broad support I could see Jonsson being persuaded to run as a transitional candidate until someone younger is ready (esp. if Källström doesn't feel like returning to politics), he's as rural as they get, very popular internally, likable, and centrist.


Economic right wingers

Anna-Karin Hatt (52), former IT and Energy minister under Reinfeldt, CEO of Almega, the service sector employers’ organisation, which is more anti-trade union than the industry dominated main employer union. Country girl from the village of Hylte in Halland on the lower west coast. Economic right wing/Rural right.

Martin Ådahl (52), their current economical-political spokesperson. From Stockholm and with a father who was advisor to PM Thorbjörn Fälldin. Economist with a degree from the prestigious Stockholm Business School. Dry and without a hint of charisma. Arguably the closest to Lööf ideologically, but unlike her not much interested in social issues. Economic right wing.


Urban progressives

Emma Wiesner (29), MEP, civil engineer, strong green/climate profile, from industrial city Västerås (pop. 128,000) in Central Sweden, urban progressive but more "grounded" than some of the more woke types. Moderate urban progressive.

Notable that ex-youth league chairman Hanna Wagenius (33), from a tiny hamlet in Härjedalen with 50 inhabitants but with very libertarian views on social issues and immigration (often to an almost bizarre degree) and a law degree from Uppsala (Sweden's oldest university), she'd be one of the strongest candidates for the urban progressives while still being able to claim rural roots, but she's declined (not an MP, and don't feel like it). That leaves an open lane for the more hardcore socially libertarian types, but unclear if anyone will take it.

[Georg Ebner]

The final opinionPoll of each company:

The best ones (grouped by the average deViations per party):

[rcronald]

Sept 17, 2022 12:57:12 GMT @boogieeck said:

The BBC continue to refer to Sweden Democrats as far right

The BBC really is beyond saving. Sell it off.

The only media outlet in Israel that is referring to the SD as far right is, Haaretz, but they are to the left of more then 90% of the Israeli population….

Note: even then, Haaretz is referring to them as radical right rather then far right.

[nelson]

Emil Källström has declined to run for the leadership of Centre, which leaves it wide open. 

[aargauer]

Sept 17, 2022 12:57:12 GMT @boogieeck said:

The BBC continue to refer to Sweden Democrats as far right

The BBC really is beyond saving. Sell it off.

I personally would have voted moderate, but there's no way this iteration of SD are "far" right. That term should be used sparingly for the likes of the BNP, Golden Dawn, NPD and the like. Anything more moderate than Der Flugel should be "hard right".

[maxque]

Sept 17, 2022 17:33:15 GMT aargauer said:

Sept 17, 2022 12:57:12 GMT @boogieeck said:

The BBC continue to refer to Sweden Democrats as far right

The BBC really is beyond saving. Sell it off.

I personally would have voted moderate, but there's no way this iteration of SD are "far" right. That term should be used sparingly for the likes of the BNP, Golden Dawn, NPD and the like. Anything more moderate than Der Flugel should be "hard right".

If commemorating Poland's invasion in 1939 isn't far-right, what is?

[nelson]

Sept 17, 2022 23:45:38 GMT maxque said:

Sept 17, 2022 17:33:15 GMT aargauer said:

I personally would have voted moderate, but there's no way this iteration of SD are "far" right. That term should be used sparingly for the likes of the BNP, Golden Dawn, NPD and the like. Anything more moderate than Der Flugel should be "hard right".

If commemorating Poland's invasion in 1939 isn't far-right, what is?

The party official that got the idea and invited people for coffee & cake (fika) has Polish parents and it was intended to commemorate Poland's heroic defence, not celebrate the Nazis. SD has above average support among Swedes with Polish (and other Central & Eastern European) ancestry.

[nelson]

The first Speaker's round is under way.

The schedule (UK time):

9.30 Moderates
9.55 Sweden Democrats
10.20 Centre
10.45 Left Party
11.10 Greens
12.00 ChristianDemocrats
12.25 Liberals

13.30 Press conference with the Speakers.

His meeting with Andersson is not scheduled since she's Acting PM, but he's obviously already consulted with her. 

Ulf Kristersson got the mandate to form a government and will report back to the Speaker on Sunday. He would not say whether he's going for an M-KD or an M-KD-Lib coalition, he'll keep Andersson's Secretary of State for for Foreign Affairs and the Security Policy Council Oscar Stenström to secure continuity in the NATO negotiations . Åkesson just repeated his line about how a majority government would be "good for Sweden". 

The Riksdag opens on 27 September where the Speaker will present his proposal for a new government if the negotiations are finished by then, the election of the Speaker takes place the day before. The Moderates have traditionally insisted the Speaker should be from the biggest party on the winning side, but now where that is SD they've changed their tune and want Andreas Norlén to continue, and the chance of him not doing so is very low, but SD will demand some kind of compensation (like an extra committee chairmanship or two). SD officially demand all the posts they're entitled to by custom, which include the Speaker, but they''re ofc well aware that a Sweden Democrat can't get elected (the 173 from the pro-Andersson bloc + 2 Liberals would be enough to block it). In addition to the important role (s)he plays in government formation the Speaker is the 2nd highest ranking office in the country after the King (but before the PM), and can function as acting Head of State in some situations if the King is incapacitated, and there's  no way the other parties will let SD have such a post, several centre-right MP's have also (on and off the record) said that they don't want SD to represent Sweden in contacts with foreign governments and diplomats. 

[nelson]

The Liberals unsurprisingly maintain that SD can't be in government, and they also won't accept SD appointed civil servants in the Government Chancellory. 

[nelson]

SD officially demand all the posts they're "entitled to by custom", which includes the Speaker, but they're ofc well aware that a Sweden Democrat can't get elected (the 173 from the pro-Andersson bloc + two Liberals would be enough to block it and the vote on the Speaker is by secret ballot so it can't be whipped). In addition to the important role (s)he plays in government formation the Speaker is also the second highest ranking office in the country after the King and functions as Acting Regent if the King and all other adult members of the line of succession (which is currently just the monarch's three children) are unavailable, although that has only happened once, back in 1988. If you can't accept an SD Prime Minister it makes sense that you also can't accept the party getting a position that outranks the PM. 

Several centre-right MP's have also said that they don't want SD to represent Sweden in contacts with foreign governments and diplomats.

Sweden's 1974 constitution that eliminated the formal political role of the King arguably made it a pseudo-republic or Monarchy in Name Only (MINO) with the Speaker taking over most of the monarch's political role.

[nelson]

Magdalena Andersson has opened up for SocDem support to reelect the current Speaker Andreas Norlén (phrased as "a broad agreement to elect a Social Democrat or a Moderate", but that de facto means Norlén). He is generally considered to have been an excellent Speaker, and given that he'll win anyway it's in the SocDems interest to avoid SD getting extra committee chairmanships in return for giving up their claim to the post. 

The tabloid Aftonbladet has a good interactive guide to the election called "So Voted Sweden".
www.aftonbladet.se/valresultat2022/sa-rostade-sverige/

[nelson]

The new Centre leader will be elected 2 February on an extraordinary party conference in Helsingborg in Scania. Constituency branches, district branches and affiliated organizations can nominate candidates. 

So Annie Lööf will lead the party during the entire government formation process and the subsequent budget negotiations. 

[Georg Ebner]

If anyone is intending to make municipality-maps (or already doing), it would be helpful to contact me for coOrdination.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 23, 2022 13:45:49 GMT Georg Ebner said:

If anyone is intending to make municipality-maps (or already doing), it would be helpful to contact me for coOrdination.

P.scr.: en.wikipedia provides such for %, i was thinking of maps for the %-changes 2018 vs. 2022.

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

Is perhaps anyone willing to make 1 map of the %-changes 2018-vs.-2022 of the alliances?
Would be admittingly a lot of work - the sums had to be calculated - but appreciated.

[rcronald]

Sept 24, 2022 21:02:24 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Is perhaps anyone willing to make 1 map of the %-changes 2018-vs.-2022 of the alliances?
Would be admittingly a lot of work - the sums had to be calculated - but appreciated.

With shading?

[nelson]

The right wing bloc has agreed to nominate the incumbent Andreas Norlén (M) as Speaker and Julia Kronlid from SD as Second Deputy Speaker. In exchange for giving up the Speaker post SD gets eight of the 16 committee chairmanships and deputy chairmanships the bloc can nominate, while the Moderates get four and the Christian Democrats and the Liberals two each.

The opposition (the SocDems) gets to pick the First Deputy Speaker.

Kronild is not exactly uncontroversial, she's a creationist and in favour of rolling back abortion rights, and has been described as "an American style culture warrior". But she hasn't said any outright racist things or been involved in brawls or scandals so I suppose she's relatively "vanilla" by SD standards. 

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 25, 2022 15:37:57 GMT rcronald said:

Sept 24, 2022 21:02:24 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Is perhaps anyone willing to make 1 map of the %-changes 2018-vs.-2022 of the alliances?
Would be admittingly a lot of work - the sums had to be calculated - but appreciated.

With shading?

Yes, of course.
Are You interested?
As the EC doesn't provide results per commune i made my maps based on this source:

www.aftonbladet.se/valresultat2022/#sverige-riksdagsvalet

You could copy&paste the % and %-changes municipality for municipality into EXCEL, but then You would have to find them at the map. Another possibility is to calculate them directly.