WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 13, 2022 16:04:38 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2022 23:50:09 GMT
Amusingly the chatting classes have trumpeted around, that "the PV lean to the right". But what was spectacularly true in 1979, are tempi passati - just as in my Austria it had helped initially the upper(middle)-class bourgeoisie; since 1998 was a transitional phase, when it helped neither bloc; yet, in the last 2 elections the Andersson-camp (incl. C) gained 1 seat respectively and i can imagine, that the S will today&tomorrow have overperformed for the first time (as the SPÖ does since the first round of the pres.elec. 2016). Though this time the 4 final seats went on sunDay to the left bloc, what makes another gain for them unlikely, unless the votes trend extremely to 1 specific mid-left party. A study on absenteeVoting since 1944: www.gu.se/sites/default/files/2020-12/2020%2015%20Lindskog%20-%20Absentee%20voting%20in%20Sweden%201944-2018.pdfOverSea-Sweden 2014:  2018:  All according to univ. Gothenburg. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2022 0:01:34 GMT
Those Valu-exitPolls are great by number of probands or by going back to 2002, but they have unfortunately nothing on formal education - probably they don't want to alter after 20 years their questions... Its importance would indeed be obvious, though, cf. UppsalaCity:  ...and SD in univ.city Lund:  |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 14, 2022 11:49:15 GMT
And so it begins. Tomas Sander chairman of Centre in Borgholm municipality (the northern half of the island of Öland in Lööf's native Småland) is the first Centre representative to urge Annie Lööf to step down as party leader. Of course that's a very marginal figure, but given how badly Centre got clobbered in their traditional rural strongholds more are bound to join him.
The tradition in Centre is that party leaders that lose elections step down, so there'll be pressure on Lööf, but she has had an usual strong position internally, so it might take a while.
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Post by rcronald on Sept 14, 2022 11:59:54 GMT
And so it begins. Tomas Sander chairman of Centre in Borgholm municipality (the northern half of the island of Öland in Lööf's native Småland) is the first Centre representative to urge Annie Lööf to step down as party leader. Of course that's a very marginal figure, but given how badly Centre got clobbered in their traditional rural strongholds more are bound to join him. The tradition in Centre is that party leaders that lose elections step down, so there'll be pressure on Lööf, but she has had an usual strong position internally, so it might take a while. Looking at the 2018-2022 data for Northern Sweden, it seems like Centre lost their vote to SD and V to S. Btw, who did you vote for Nelson? Note: my apologies if you are Dane/Norwegian rather then Swedish. |
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Post by dizz on Sept 14, 2022 12:20:50 GMT
This is nonsense isn't it? The Swdeden Democrats cannot simultaneously be subject to a "cordon sanitaire" and be part of the blue bloc. In defence of Greenhert, I thought it was no worse than most of his analysis. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2022 12:50:44 GMT
And so it begins. Tomas Sander chairman of Centre in Borgholm municipality (the northern half of the island of Öland in Lööf's native Småland) is the first Centre representative to urge Annie Lööf to step down as party leader. Of course that's a very marginal figure, but given how badly Centre got clobbered in their traditional rural strongholds more are bound to join him. The tradition in Centre is that party leaders that lose elections step down, so there'll be pressure on Lööf, but she has had an usual strong position internally, so it might take a while. Looking at the 2018-2022 data for Northern Sweden, it seems like Centre lost their vote to SD and V to S. Despite geographical corRelations not according to that big exitPoll (n=11.000):  If their numbers are true, it was more indirectly (C->M & M->SD; unfortunately they haven't listed abStention/newVoters). V->S is undisputed, though:  |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 14, 2022 12:55:39 GMT
Looking at the 2018-2022 data for Northern Sweden, it seems like Centre lost their vote to SD and V to S. Despite geographical corRelations not according to that big exitPoll (n=11.000): If their numbers are true, it was more indirectly (C->M & M->SD; unfortunately they haven't listed abStention/newVoters). V->S is certain, though: Centre’s decline seems too steep compared to M’s (who declined or remain stagnant in most of the northern regions) and too gentle compared to SD’s rise for the chart to be entirely true imo. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 14, 2022 15:49:20 GMT
Still 175-174 to the Right with only 50 districts, it's over.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 14, 2022 16:20:58 GMT
Tbf, it’s hard to imagine many SD curious people voting Centre in 2018 given their stridently anti-SD platform. If you were ok with SD then voting M in 2018 makes more sense (which would explain why they were able to lose many more voters in that direction this time).
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 14, 2022 16:25:24 GMT
Still 175-174 to the Right with only 50 districts, it's over. 176-173 now with less than 30 left. The Moderates win a seat from the SocDems. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 14, 2022 16:50:06 GMT
Magdalena Andersson has called a press conference at 6.20 pm UK time, so she'll likely step down.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 14, 2022 17:32:12 GMT
Andersson has conceded and says she will submit her resignation tomorrow.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2022 21:47:21 GMT
The Centre Party leads the Left Party by 154 votes with 19 districts still to declare. Looks like a 176 to 173 win for the right-of-centre bloc overall. resultat.val.se/val2022/prel/RD/rikeSurprising - contrary to 2014 & 2018 the absenteeVotes were to the right of the pollingStation-ones (as it had been the case before 1998). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2022 21:48:57 GMT
Andersson has conceded and says she will submit her resignation tomorrow. But surely only resignating as primeMinister, while staying on as partyLeader? |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 14, 2022 21:50:47 GMT
The Centre Party leads the Left Party by 154 votes with 19 districts still to declare. Looks like a 176 to 173 win for the right-of-centre bloc overall. resultat.val.se/val2022/prel/RD/rikeSurprising - contrary to 2014 & 2018 the absenteeVotes were to the right of the pollingStation-ones (as it had been the case before 1998). On the edges rather the centre, I would say. Would explain how V have managed to overtake C right at the end. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 14, 2022 22:29:36 GMT
Surprising - contrary to 2014 & 2018 the absenteeVotes were to the right of the pollingStation-ones (as it had been the case before 1998). Other people have been saying the absentee ballots usually help the Moderates and the Liberals, though not the Christian Democrats and the Sweden Democrats. But your figures showed otherwise I think. There is no consistent pattern across elections among absentee voters afaik, only with regard to the overseas/international vote, which is always bad for the SocDems and SD (due to the overweight of low income and low education voters among their base, groups that are relatively rare among expats) and good for the Moderates (business expats and wealthy retirees) and to a lesser degree the Greens (students at foreign universities, backpackers, people involved in ecotourism abroad etc.). SD gained among business owners this time and that could in principle also be the case among business related expats. The "Wednesday vote" was made up of both the international vote and late absentee voters. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 15, 2022 10:28:03 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 15, 2022 13:44:33 GMT
Well, SVT's political editor Mats Knutsson has it the other way round. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 15, 2022 13:54:17 GMT
Well, SVT's political editor Mats Knutsson has it the other way round. I suppose Expressen has more antipathy towards V than SVT! Either way, it will be interesting to see which of the two (if either) are toppled first. |
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