nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 12, 2022 10:46:43 GMT
You'd have to wonder how sustainable a Right bloc government would be with those figures. The Left bloc (mainly because of the clear dominance of the Social Democrats) is a more coherent grouping. But at some stage the Swedish Democrats are going to have to be incorporated into a governing model to test their ability to transition from being (substantially) a repository of fear and anger. The centre-right/right bloc is more coherent on economics, business, energy, education, defence and even on crime prevention than the "left" bloc. It's basically only on refugees and integration of ethnic minorities where the distance between the Liberals and SD is greater than between the SocDems and Centre/Greens/Left. ... Not sure f it has been mentioned, but Andersson doesn't have to step down if the Right gets 175 seats, she can wait until the Prime Minister vote, which will happen "shortly" after the Riksdag convenes on 20 September (the exact date is determined by the Speaker, which will still be Andreas Norlén). If just one Liberal abstains, making it a 174-174 tie, she can stay on as she won't have a majority against her.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2022 11:03:44 GMT
As expected, L's Karlskrona has already claimed, that they won't accept SD in government.
Not sure, i should wish midRight a majority...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2022 11:09:07 GMT
Things would be less awful, if Sweden had not nearly as many MPs as e.g. Italy's new Camera. Bringing 175 deputies of 4 parties into line with snapElections difficult to be called...
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 12, 2022 11:14:16 GMT
Given how close the Right is to gaining another seat and that the overseas vote is usually clearly right-leaning 176-173 seems very likely, which will ofc make the above a moot point.
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Post by matureleft on Sept 12, 2022 11:19:09 GMT
You'd have to wonder how sustainable a Right bloc government would be with those figures. The Left bloc (mainly because of the clear dominance of the Social Democrats) is a more coherent grouping. But at some stage the Swedish Democrats are going to have to be incorporated into a governing model to test their ability to transition from being (substantially) a repository of fear and anger. The centre-right/right bloc is more coherent on economics, business, energy, education, defence and even on crime prevention than the "left" bloc. It's basically only on refugees and integration of ethnic minorities where the distance between the Liberals and SD is greater than between the SocDems and Centre/Greens/Left. ... Not sure f it has been mentioned, but Andersson doesn't have to step down if the Right gets 175 seats, she can wait until the Prime Minister vote, which will happen "shortly" after the Riksdag convenes on 20 September (the exact date is determined by the Speaker, which will still be Andreas Norlén). If just one Liberal abstains, making it a 174-174 tie, she can stay on as she won't have a majority against her. Interesting. How homogeneous and disciplined are the Liberals? It’s a major step that’s being taken with SD both for their potential partners and the SD party itself. While the platforms may be pretty compatible (and obviously worked acceptably in an election) the stresses of first building an actual government and then making it work haven’t been tried at national level. Insurgent parties like SD aren’t easy to fit into the inevitable compromises required in practical decision-making.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 12, 2022 11:33:53 GMT
The centre-right/right bloc is more coherent on economics, business, energy, education, defence and even on crime prevention than the "left" bloc. It's basically only on refugees and integration of ethnic minorities where the distance between the Liberals and SD is greater than between the SocDems and Centre/Greens/Left. ... Not sure f it has been mentioned, but Andersson doesn't have to step down if the Right gets 175 seats, she can wait until the Prime Minister vote, which will happen "shortly" after the Riksdag convenes on 20 September (the exact date is determined by the Speaker, which will still be Andreas Norlén). If just one Liberal abstains, making it a 174-174 tie, she can stay on as she won't have a majority against her. Interesting. How homogeneous and disciplined are the Liberals? It’s a major step that’s being taken with SD both for their potential partners and the SD party itself. While the platforms may be pretty compatible (and obviously worked acceptably in an election) the stresses of first building an actual government and then making it work haven’t been tried at national level. Insurgent parties like SD aren’t easy to fit into the inevitable compromises required in practical decision-making. The Liberals are traditionally divided into two wing: a "requirement liberal" right wing (kravliberaler) and a social liberal left wing, and it's the right wing that has pushed through the end of the January Agreement and the switch back to the right. The right wing has been in control of the party for a while now and there has been some exodus of social liberals, but the left wing hasn't abandoned the party altogether so there's still a divide. It'll depend who gets the seats, but the right will be in the clear majority in the parliamentary group. The government will be M-KD (SD can't accept L and KD don't want them in government either), and will have to balance SD and L demands, but SD will demand a formal cooperation agreement with the government (I can't see them backing away from that now). The Liberals passed the threshold by committing to backing a "right bloc" based government and can't really vote against Kristersson, but there'll no doubt be several critical situations during the term, and if a single defection is enough to topple the government an extra election (early election) is probably more likely than not.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2022 13:44:42 GMT
LeftRight-selfDeclaration (according to "Valu", that mentioned 11.000-exitPoll conducted in front of booths): All: MP (not so surprising): C: SD:
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 12, 2022 14:29:25 GMT
LeftRight-selfDeclaration (according to "Valu", that mentioned 11.000-exitPoll conducted in front of booths): All: MP (not so surprising): C: SD: Did they have values for L?
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Post by aargauer on Sept 12, 2022 17:49:41 GMT
Can someone explain to me the odd demographic breakdown in Sweden?
It seems that the Conservative vote is concentrated in the more urban and younger population, while the socialist vote is disproportionately old and rural. What drives this - why is it so different to the standard west European / North American distribution?
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 12, 2022 18:04:10 GMT
Can someone explain to me the odd demographic breakdown in Sweden? It seems that the Conservative vote is concentrated in the more urban and younger population, while the socialist vote is disproportionately old and rural. What drives this - why is it so different to the standard west European / North American distribution? It's not so unique among European countries. There are similar patterns in Spain, for example, where the right do particularly well in Madrid and Valencia. The wealthy (even the relatively well off) primarily live in the big cities and have summer houses out in the countryside, where they're not registered to vote. There is the general view that it is better to live in the cities, where there is access to anything one might need, rather than in the countryside, where there's sod all. The countryside is for weekend summer retreats and small-town Sweden is a grim and dour place, reserved for the lower orders.
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Post by aargauer on Sept 12, 2022 18:34:18 GMT
Can someone explain to me the odd demographic breakdown in Sweden? It seems that the Conservative vote is concentrated in the more urban and younger population, while the socialist vote is disproportionately old and rural. What drives this - why is it so different to the standard west European / North American distribution? It's not so unique among European countries. There are similar patterns in Spain, for example, where the right do particularly well in Madrid and Valencia. The wealthy (even the relatively well off) primarily live in the big cities and have summer houses out in the countryside, where they're not registered to vote. There is the general view that it is better to live in the cities, where there is access to anything one might need, rather than in the countryside, where there's sod all. The countryside is for weekend summer retreats and small-town Sweden is a grim and dour place, reserved for the lower orders. That's the geographic pattern in Italy to some extent I understand, but is unusual in north west Europe. Even then - do Italy, Spain etc have the "inverse" age pattern with the young leaning conservative?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 12, 2022 20:46:18 GMT
Italy is a difficult one to judge given that the entrenched party system was destroyed, and replaced with strange coalitions of factions of dead parties, personality cults, and outright weirdos.
How, for example, to assess exactly what a PD voter is and which party the older voters would have voted for? How do you judge the ostensibly centre-left being led by the DC veteran Prodi going toe-to-toe with the ostensibly centre-right led by Berlusconi with his close links to the late Socialists? It is fascinating but very difficult.
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Sept 13, 2022 5:59:03 GMT
Outside of North America, the UK, Germany , Hungary and Poland , I am pretty sure that most other countries the Urban vote is not that left leaning and the rural vote is not that right leaning.
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Post by matureleft on Sept 13, 2022 7:28:29 GMT
I suspect the other element in Sweden is the longevity and completeness of Social Democratic dominance creating a robust organisation across the country and a great deal of legacy (largely positive) sentiment. That would be both age-related and secure votes across the country.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 13, 2022 10:32:01 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2022 11:24:27 GMT
This is nonsense isn't it? The Swdeden Democrats cannot simultaneously be subject to a "cordon sanitaire" and be part of the blue bloc.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2022 11:42:46 GMT
This is nonsense isn't it? The Sweden Democrats cannot simultaneously be subject to a "cordon sanitaire" and be part of the blue bloc. It's complete nonsense, what remains is opposition to accepting SD in the government. Åkesson has no chance of becoming PM, and SD's public position of wanting a centre-right majority government is taken in order to boost their negotiation position. The realistic option is an M-KD minority government with confidence and supply deals with both SD and the Liberals, and everyone knows that. The Liberals are controlled by their right wing and are firmly committed to supporting a centre-right PM, it took a lot of internal infighting to reach that position and the party would collapse if they went back on it. SD's position in Swedish politics is in no way comparable to AfD's in Germany (apart from bloc politics on the national level they work with the mainstream centre-right in many municipalities.
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Sept 13, 2022 12:07:28 GMT
This is nonsense isn't it? The Sweden Democrats cannot simultaneously be subject to a "cordon sanitaire" and be part of the blue bloc. It's complete nonsense, what remains is opposition to accepting SD in the government. Åkesson has no chance of becoming PM, and SD's public position of wanting a centre-right majority government is taken in order to boost their negotiation position. The realistic option is an M-KD minority government with confidence and supply deals with both SD and the Liberals, and everyone knows that. The Liberals are controlled by their right wing and are firmly committed to supporting a centre-right PM, it took a lot of internal infighting to reach that position and the party would collapse if they went back on it. SD's position in Swedish politics is in no way comparable to AfD's in Germany (apart from bloc politics on the national level they work with the mainstream centre-right in many municipalities. Imagine if AFD hadn’t gone the borderline Neo-Nazi route after the 2017 election, they could have ended up being partially accepted by the 2029 election….
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2022 12:25:29 GMT
LeftRight-selfDeclaration (according to "Valu", that mentioned 11.000-exitPoll conducted in front of booths): All: MP (not so surprising): C: SD: Did they have values for L?
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 13, 2022 15:12:30 GMT
The Right didn't only do well among first time voters, but also won the school elections (mock election among elementary school pupils) with the Moderates getting 27%, SD 21% og KD 9%. "Experts" (political science researchers, statsvetare, which the Swedish media are very fond of using as commentators) point to the election being seen as about "basic safety" by young voters, with young people's high exposure to violence in public spaces playing a big part, and SD being perceived as having the best policy on migration, law & order and energy (the dominant issues in the campaign). Plus SD increasingly being viewed as a normal party among young people due to cooperating with M and KD. Given SD was perceived as having better policies than M on the highest prioritized issues there's presumably still some stigma attached to supporting SD, even if the difference between the two parties official policy on these issues isn't that big.
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