Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 11, 2022 22:21:40 GMT
As written, the missing precincts are evenly spread over the city. With presently -3% it is quite certain, that they will have suffered there above nat. average. But they still do well in Stockholm generally. It's totally uncontroversial to say that it is one of their stronger areas, even if they drop there slightly more than the national average in this vote. In the region yes. But not in the city, where they are (presently) below nat.average. As it looks S+V+Mp alone should be able to govern the big 3 cities (perhaps C will be necessary here and there). An election backing clearly the Global Trends. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 22:22:01 GMT
Originally posted with 68% in, not even 0.1% change from 68% to 80% Finally changed, but only by 0.1% lol 89% in Right Bloc - 49.7% : SD-20.8% M-19% KD-5.4% L-4.6% Left Bloc - 48.8% : S-30.5% C-6.7% V-6.6% MP-5% 90% in and the Centre-Right bloc has 176 seats at the moment. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 11, 2022 22:22:18 GMT
It'll be interesting to see what the Liberals do. Now that they are definitely going to clear the threshold, they will be the kingmakers. They were happy to support a Kristersson-led bloc, including SD. But now that SD are the largest party in the right bloc, might they push for leadership, and if so, would the Liberals stomach that? since SD is not the largest party by a big amount, wouldn’t they just want control over things like immigration and welfare rather then collapse a potential government because of a 1.7% difference (at the moment)? Note: if I was Jimmy Åkesson, I would gently push toward being PM in private as a starting position and fold if I feel stiff pushback by the Libs It would be the sensible option. We will have to see. A government with the PM from the 3rd largest party would certainly attract criticisms. But pragmatically, it would be best for the right. The arithmetic is so tight though that no matter what, I could imagine Liberal MPs breaking the whip on some key votes. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 11, 2022 22:27:04 GMT
It'll be interesting to see what the Liberals do. Now that they are definitely going to clear the threshold, they will be the kingmakers. They were happy to support a Kristersson-led bloc, including SD. But now that SD are the largest party in the right bloc, might they push for leadership, and if so, would the Liberals stomach that? since SD is not the largest party by a big amount, wouldn’t they just want control over things like immigration and welfare rather then collapse a potential government because of a 1.7% difference (at the moment)? Note: if I was Jimmy Åkesson, I would gently push toward being PM in private as a starting position and fold if I feel stiff pushback by the Libs Although Åkesson is comparatively popular (considering, that he has the antiFa-mob per se against him), the odds of him becoming PM tend towards zero. It is already doubtful, that the Lib. would tolerate his party with some ministers in the cabinet. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 22:27:31 GMT
since SD is not the largest party by a big amount, wouldn’t they just want control over things like immigration and welfare rather then collapse a potential government because of a 1.7% difference (at the moment)? Note: if I was Jimmy Åkesson, I would gently push toward being PM in private as a starting position and fold if I feel stiff pushback by the Libs It would be the sensible option. We will have to see. A government with the PM from the 3rd largest party would certainly attract criticisms. But pragmatically, it would be best for the right. The arithmetic is so tight though that no matter what, I could imagine Liberal MPs breaking the whip on some key votes. At the very least, SD would have to receive control of Welfare and Immigration, I would probably the Libs defense , as I would assume that SD would not want a SocLib party to hold education. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 22:28:39 GMT
since SD is not the largest party by a big amount, wouldn’t they just want control over things like immigration and welfare rather then collapse a potential government because of a 1.7% difference (at the moment)? Note: if I was Jimmy Åkesson, I would gently push toward being PM in private as a starting position and fold if I feel stiff pushback by the Libs Although Åkesson is comparatively popular (considering, that he has the antiFa-mob per se against him), the odds of him becoming PM tend towards zero. It is already doubtful, that the Lib. would tolerate his party with some ministers in the cabinet. The Libs would have to give SD control of some things, unless they want to get wiped out in a snap election. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 11, 2022 22:31:39 GMT
Although Ã…kesson is comparatively popular (considering, that he has the antiFa-mob per se against him), the odds of him becoming PM tend towards zero. It is already doubtful, that the Lib. would tolerate his party with some ministers in the cabinet. The Libs would have to give SD control of some things, unless they want to get wiped out in a snap election. Yes, of some things surely. Here are few divergencies within their camp illustrated:  |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 11, 2022 22:33:23 GMT
It would be the sensible option. We will have to see. A government with the PM from the 3rd largest party would certainly attract criticisms. But pragmatically, it would be best for the right. The arithmetic is so tight though that no matter what, I could imagine Liberal MPs breaking the whip on some key votes. At the very least, SD would have to receive control of Welfare and Immigration, I would probably give defense , as I would assume that SD would not want a SocLib party to hold education. SD have probably been too sceptical of NATO in the past for this to be viable in the current climate. To be fair, most parties were against membership before this year, but SD have been particularly hawkish about it until this summer, so a safer pair of hands would be needed. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 22:36:46 GMT
At the very least, SD would have to receive control of Welfare and Immigration, I would probably give defense , as I would assume that SD would not want a SocLib party to hold education. SD have probably been too sceptical of NATO in the past for this to be viable in the current climate. To be fair, most parties were against membership before this year, but SD have been particularly hawkish about it until this summer, so a safer pair of hands would be needed. Defense to L, not SD 😅 |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 22:37:55 GMT
The Libs would have to give SD control of some things, unless they want to get wiped out in a snap election. Yes, of some things surely. Here are few divergencies within their camp illustrated: I’m pretty sure that 4.6% doesn’t equal 20.7% |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 11, 2022 22:40:35 GMT
The Libs would have to give SD control of some things, unless they want to get wiped out in a snap election. Yes, of some things surely. Here are few divergencies within their camp illustrated: That's quite a helpful graphic. |
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Post by independentukip on Sept 11, 2022 22:41:52 GMT
since SD is not the largest party by a big amount, wouldn’t they just want control over things like immigration and welfare rather then collapse a potential government because of a 1.7% difference (at the moment)? Note: if I was Jimmy Åkesson, I would gently push toward being PM in private as a starting position and fold if I feel stiff pushback by the Libs Although Åkesson is comparatively popular (considering, that he has the antiFa-mob per se against him), the odds of him becoming PM tend towards zero. It is already doubtful, that the Lib. would tolerate his party with some ministers in the cabinet. The largest party in a new Coalition not having the PM is one thing and maybe pragmatic in this case but being kept out of the cabinet entirely by a minor 'kingmaker' party appears rather disresepectful to that party and its voters. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 11, 2022 22:48:05 GMT
Although Ã…kesson is comparatively popular (considering, that he has the antiFa-mob per se against him), the odds of him becoming PM tend towards zero. It is already doubtful, that the Lib. would tolerate his party with some ministers in the cabinet. The largest party in a new Coalition not having the PM is one thing and maybe pragmatic in this case but being kept out of the cabinet entirely by a minor 'kingmaker' party appears rather disresepectful to that party and its voters. I'm not 100% sure that's what Georg means, but if he does, I can't see why the SD would bother to join the government at all. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 11, 2022 22:49:56 GMT
Although Ã…kesson is comparatively popular (considering, that he has the antiFa-mob per se against him), the odds of him becoming PM tend towards zero. It is already doubtful, that the Lib. would tolerate his party with some ministers in the cabinet. The largest party in a new Coalition not having the PM is one thing and maybe pragmatic in this case but being kept out of the cabinet entirely by a minor 'kingmaker' party appears rather disresepectful to that party and its voters. The Liberals have already stated that they'll support an M-led government, even if it includes SD. Not supporting an SD-led government, should they so choose, would be an entirely different kettle of fish. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2022 1:54:17 GMT
Although Ã…kesson is comparatively popular (considering, that he has the antiFa-mob per se against him), the odds of him becoming PM tend towards zero. It is already doubtful, that the Lib. would tolerate his party with some ministers in the cabinet. The largest party in a new Coalition not having the PM is one thing and maybe pragmatic in this case but being kept out of the cabinet entirely by a minor 'kingmaker' party appears rather disresepectful to that party and its voters. Sure. But taking into account, what happened to similar parties participating in government (cf. FinLand, NetherLands, Austria; Norway stands here admittingly aside partly) the Danish solution is not so unattractive for them, is it? |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 12, 2022 7:52:15 GMT
with 94% of the vote counted, we're on even more of a knife edge than we were late last night.
Left bloc 174
V 24
SD 108
MP 18
C 24
Right bloc 175
L 16
M 67
KD 19
SD 73
If I understand correctly, overseas and postal votes are still being tallied, so if that section of society differs significantly from the rest, then maybe something could change. I don't know which way it could switch though.
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Post by matureleft on Sept 12, 2022 8:05:33 GMT
You'd have to wonder how sustainable a Right bloc government would be with those figures. The Left bloc (mainly because of the clear dominance of the Social Democrats) is a more coherent grouping. But at some stage the Swedish Democrats are going to have to be incorporated into a governing model to test their ability to transition from being (substantially) a repository of fear and anger.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 12, 2022 8:27:27 GMT
You'd have to wonder how sustainable a Right bloc government would be with those figures. The Left bloc (mainly because of the clear dominance of the Social Democrats) is a more coherent grouping. I’m not so sure. They’ve had great trouble even passing a budget (who remembers the Greens quitting the government on the day they joined it?) because of the clear political differences between the Left and Centre. I don’t think a basically Thatcherite party backing an otherwise left leaning government is anymore coherent than 4 right wing parties forming a majority. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 12, 2022 9:26:16 GMT
with 94% of the vote counted, we're on even more of a knife edge than we were late last night. Left bloc 174 V 24 SD 108 MP 18 C 24 Right bloc 175 L 16 M 67 KD 19 SD 73 If I understand correctly, overseas and postal votes are still being tallied, so if that section of society differs significantly from the rest, then maybe something could change. I don't know which way it could switch though. At the moment the Centre Right bloc is much closer to 176 then 174. Are the overseas and postal votes historically right or left leaning? |
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Post by matureleft on Sept 12, 2022 9:49:40 GMT
You'd have to wonder how sustainable a Right bloc government would be with those figures. The Left bloc (mainly because of the clear dominance of the Social Democrats) is a more coherent grouping. I’m not so sure. They’ve had great trouble even passing a budget (who remembers the Greens quitting the government on the day they joined it?) because of the clear political differences between the Left and Centre. I don’t think a basically Thatcherite party backing an otherwise left leaning government is anymore coherent than 4 right wing parties forming a majority. Fair. But the configuration of the right is changing. The SD haven't ever been in government and are now the largest party in the bloc, nor are they wholly "right" in traditional terms - like almost all right populists. The dynamics of first, coalition building, and then the stresses of real decisions (at least at national level - they've shared power in local government) haven't been tested before. They may find managing their relationship with their base quite hard through that. But it should be tried at some point. Sweden's system keeps them away from too strong a grip on the reins. How that works will be very interesting (if it happens this time). |
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