WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 11, 2022 20:24:18 GMT
It's on a knife edge! Exit poll: V 25 -3 S 104 +4 MP 20 +4 C 27 -4 L 17 -3 KD 18 -4 M 66 -4 SD 72 +10 With ~30% of the vote counted, this is the seat distribution (with changes from exit poll): V 27 +2 S 107 +3 MP 19 -1 C 24 -3 L 16 -1 KD 19 +1 M 64 -2 SD 73 +1 |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 21:15:23 GMT
80% in
Right Bloc - 49.7% :
SD-20.7%
M-19%
KD-5.4%
L-4.6%
Left Bloc - 48.8% :
S-30.4%
C-6.7%
V-6.7%
MP-5%
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 11, 2022 21:23:02 GMT
Just ~900 votes separate V and C for the battle for 4th place. The momentum is in C's direction.
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 21:24:25 GMT
Just ~900 votes separate V and C for the battle for 4th place. The momentum is in C's direction. The narrow Centre-right lead seems to be holding steady and even slightly expanding since the count got to about 50% of the vote, do you expect that to change? |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 11, 2022 21:29:23 GMT
Just ~900 votes separate V and C for the battle for 4th place. The momentum is in C's direction. The narrow Centre-right lead seems to be holding steady and even slightly expanding since the count got to about 50% of the vote, do you expect that to change? No idea. Lots of votes from some key regions still to come in. Cities have been a bit slower than the small towns, so SD might be slightly overrepresented right now. Then again, M could still increase when some more city centre votes are included, so that might not have much affect on the blocs. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 21:34:51 GMT
80% in Right Bloc - 49.7% : SD-20.7% M-19% KD-5.4% L-4.6% Left Bloc - 48.8% : S-30.4% C-6.7% V-6.7% MP-5% Originally posted with 68% in, not even 0.1% change from 68% to 80% |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 21:39:38 GMT
80% in Right Bloc - 49.7% : SD-20.7% M-19% KD-5.4% L-4.6% Left Bloc - 48.8% : S-30.4% C-6.7% V-6.7% MP-5% Originally posted with 68% in, not even 0.1% change from 68% to 80% Finally changed, but only by 0.1% lol 89% in Right Bloc - 49.7% : SD-20.8% M-19% KD-5.4% L-4.6% Left Bloc - 48.8% : S-30.5% C-6.7% V-6.6% MP-5% |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 11, 2022 21:47:03 GMT
Just ~900 votes separate V and C for the battle for 4th place. The momentum is in C's direction. The narrow Centre-right lead seems to be holding steady and even slightly expanding since the count got to about 50% of the vote, do you expect that to change? As expected, the right parties perform badly in the cities, where more is to count yet, thus i guess, that their 1seatMajority will disappear. |
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Post by matureleft on Sept 11, 2022 21:50:12 GMT
On my reading results so far indicate a majority of 1 (!) to the Right bloc.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 11, 2022 21:51:01 GMT
The narrow Centre-right lead seems to be holding steady and even slightly expanding since the count got to about 50% of the vote, do you expect that to change? As expected, the right parties perform badly in the cities, where more is to count yet, thus i guess, that their 1seatMajority will disappear. M do well in Stockholm. Like I say, there could easily be some intra-bloc changes, without changing the inter-bloc arithmetic. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 21:51:11 GMT
On my reading results so far indicate a majority of 1 (!) to the Right bloc. Swing of only 1 seat against the government, but still a likely change of government! |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 21:53:31 GMT
As expected, the right parties perform badly in the cities, where more is to count yet, thus i guess, that their 1seatMajority will disappear. M do well in Stockholm. Like I say, there could easily be some intra-bloc changes, without changing the inter-bloc arithmetic. a lot (a majority I think) of the precincts left to be counted in Stockholm seem to be in a part of the city where M is the largest party. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 11, 2022 21:55:47 GMT
As expected, the right parties perform badly in the cities, where more is to count yet, thus i guess, that their 1seatMajority will disappear. M do well in Stockholm. Like I say, there could easily be some intra-bloc changes, without changing the inter-bloc arithmetic. M on track to lose nationally®ionally&locally 3% and end below national average there, so i cannot see, why "M do well in Stockholm". |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 11, 2022 22:01:39 GMT
Eh? Currently they're doing 2.7% better than the national average in the Stockholm Region and are 1% lower than average in Stockholm Kommun. When the remaining city centre districts have completed, we could see a situation where M gain a seat at the expense of SD.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 11, 2022 22:02:33 GMT
M do well in Stockholm. Like I say, there could easily be some intra-bloc changes, without changing the inter-bloc arithmetic. a lot (a majority I think) of the precincts left to be counted in Stockholm seem to be in a part of the city where M is the largest party. The maps at TV4 & AftonBladet don't suggest so, the missing precincts are spread all over the municipality. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 22:05:55 GMT
a lot (a majority I think) of the precincts left to be counted in Stockholm seem to be in a part of the city where M is the largest party. The maps at TV4 & AftonBladet don't suggest so, the missing precincts are spread all over the municipality. 10 minutes ago (at least according to AFTONBLADET) of the precincts were in NE Stockholm now it’s spread all over the municipality as there was a dump of precincts in that part of the city. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 11, 2022 22:08:10 GMT
Eh? Currently they're doing 2.7% better than the national average in the Stockholm Region and are 1% lower than average in Stockholm Kommun. When the remaining city centre districts have completed, we could see a situation where M gain a seat at the expense of SD. As written, the missing precincts are evenly spread over the city. With presently -3% it is quite certain, that they will have suffered there above nat. average. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 11, 2022 22:09:41 GMT
On my reading results so far indicate a majority of 1 (!) to the Right bloc. Swing of only 1 seat against the government, but still a likely change of government! It'll be interesting to see what the Liberals do. Now that they are definitely going to clear the threshold, they will be the kingmakers. They were happy to support a Kristersson-led bloc, including SD. But now that SD are the largest party in the right bloc, might they push for leadership, and if so, would the Liberals stomach that? |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 11, 2022 22:11:37 GMT
Eh? Currently they're doing 2.7% better than the national average in the Stockholm Region and are 1% lower than average in Stockholm Kommun. When the remaining city centre districts have completed, we could see a situation where M gain a seat at the expense of SD. As written, the missing precincts are evenly spread over the city. With presently -3% it is quite certain, that they will have suffered there above nat. average. But they still do well in Stockholm generally. It's totally uncontroversial to say that it is one of their stronger areas, even if they drop there slightly more than the national average in this vote. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 11, 2022 22:14:07 GMT
Swing of only 1 seat against the government, but still a likely change of government! It'll be interesting to see what the Liberals do. Now that they are definitely going to clear the threshold, they will be the kingmakers. They were happy to support a Kristersson-led bloc, including SD. But now that SD are the largest party in the right bloc, might they push for leadership, and if so, would the Liberals stomach that? since SD is not the largest party by a big amount, wouldn’t they just want control over things like immigration and welfare rather then collapse a potential government because of a 1.7% difference (at the moment)? Note: if I was Jimmy Åkesson, I would gently push toward being PM in private as a starting position and fold if I feel stiff pushback by the Libs |
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