Swedish Parliamentary Election 2022

[nelson]

Notable that the Greens have sent out last minute mail requests for "any kind of help" and fiscal contributions to people registered as "supporters" (not members) after the last Novus poll had them on 4.5% with a 0.7 point MoE, party co-leader Per Bolund writes that the situation is critical given that they usually underperform the polls.

A bit unusual (by Swedish standards), though of course important to mobilize and turn out supporters.

I'd be surprised if they end up falling below the threshold, but it could be close.

[Georg Ebner]

All pollsters see by this saturDay (some polls will probably emerge in the sunDay-newsPapers tomorrow) midLeft minimally ahead:

Looks likely, that C will finally have to acquiesce and accept V in government.

[Georg Ebner]

In these ways the pollsters have erred in the last 20 years:

[nelson]

The polls close at 7pm UK time.

Results: 
resultat.val.se/val2022/prel/RD/rike

Livestream from public broadcaster SVT which will show the exit poll
www.svtplay.se/val-2022-valvakan

[nelson]

Reports of long queues, which will delay the counting. The reason is that Sweden has switched to a system where the ballots (one for each party in each of the three elections: national, regional and municipal) are placed behind a shield, so no one can see which ballot(s) the voter picks. Earlier you could either bring your ballots (provided by the parties) or pick them up at the precinct, but the latter meant others could see which ones you took (unless you picked up several for each election, but that was sometimes interpreted as intent to vote for the far right or far left). There has been widespread criticism that the old system made it harder to vote for controversial parties like SD. 

[rcronald]

Sept 11, 2022 13:02:54 GMT nelson said:

Reports of long queues, which will delay the counting. The reason is that Sweden has switched to a system where the ballots (one for each party in each of the three elections. national, regional and municipal) are placed behind a shield, so no one can see which ballot the voter picks. Earlier you could either bring your ballot (provided by the parties) or pick one up at the precinct, but the latter meant others could see which one you took (unless you picked up several, but that was sometimes interpreted as intent to vote for the far right or far left). There has been widespread criticism that the old system made it harder to vote for controversial parties like SD. 

I wonder how much S has benefited from the old system since 2014, as one would expect some apolitical SD tilting voters to support S because they did not want to be publicly associated with SD + social pressure.

Note: it’s also a massive problem for the GOP with early mail voting, as I wouldn’t be surprised at all if some GOP leaning men voted Dem in 2020 early voting to appease their Dem voting wives.

[nelson]

Sept 11, 2022 13:46:14 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 11, 2022 13:02:54 GMT nelson said:

Reports of long queues, which will delay the counting. The reason is that Sweden has switched to a system where the ballots (one for each party in each of the three elections: national, regional and municipal) are placed behind a shield, so no one can see which ballot(s) the voter picks. Earlier you could either bring your ballots (provided by the parties) or pick them up at the precinct, but the latter meant others could see which ones you took (unless you picked up several for each election, but that was sometimes interpreted as intent to vote for the far right or far left). There has been widespread criticism that the old system made it harder to vote for controversial parties like SD. 

The old system was clearly a violation of the idea of a secret ballot because as you say anyone could see which party ballot paper you were picking up. A team of international observers commented on it at a recent election IIRC>

Yes, both the OSCE and the Council of Europe have criticized it. 

[WJ]

Sept 11, 2022 13:02:54 GMT nelson said:

Reports of long queues, which will delay the counting. The reason is that Sweden has switched to a system where the ballots (one for each party in each of the three elections: national, regional and municipal) are placed behind a shield, so no one can see which ballot(s) the voter picks. Earlier you could either bring your ballots (provided by the parties) or pick them up at the precinct, but the latter meant others could see which ones you took (unless you picked up several for each election, but that was sometimes interpreted as intent to vote for the far right or far left). There has been widespread criticism that the old system made it harder to vote for controversial parties like SD. 

All options were available at the embassy a few weeks ago. I swear I remember something similar when I was eligible to cast regional and local ballots in 2018- I.e. there were piles of party ballots in plain view, plus piles in private booths.

[Georg Ebner]

Here is another compass:

valkompass.svt.se/2022

As devout Christian i ended with - the Liberals...
But they and KD and SD were all around 58%.

[aargauer]

Sept 11, 2022 13:46:14 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 11, 2022 13:02:54 GMT nelson said:

Reports of long queues, which will delay the counting. The reason is that Sweden has switched to a system where the ballots (one for each party in each of the three elections: national, regional and municipal) are placed behind a shield, so no one can see which ballot(s) the voter picks. Earlier you could either bring your ballots (provided by the parties) or pick them up at the precinct, but the latter meant others could see which ones you took (unless you picked up several for each election, but that was sometimes interpreted as intent to vote for the far right or far left). There has been widespread criticism that the old system made it harder to vote for controversial parties like SD. 

The old system was clearly a violation of the idea of a secret ballot because as you say anyone could see which party ballot paper you were picking up. A team of international observers commented on it at a recent election IIRC>

Some cantons here have expressly public voting.

[Pete Whitehead]

M
The moderates 76 %

SD
The Sweden Democrats 76 %

KD
The Christian Democrats 70 %

S
The Social Democrats 63 %

L
The Liberals 52 %

C
The Center Party 40 %

M.P
The Green Party 16 %

V
The left party 12 %

[aargauer]

Sept 11, 2022 16:02:41 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Here is another compass:

valkompass.svt.se/2022

As devout Christian i ended with - the Liberals...
But they and KD and SD were all around 58%.

I got the moderates, but had to skip a number of questions where I disagreed with the premise.

M
The moderates 68 %

KD
The Christian Democrats 61 %

C
The Center Party 61 %

L
The Liberals 55 %

SD
The Sweden Democrats 53 %

S
The Social Democrats 42 %

M.P
The Green Party 17 %

V
The left party 16 %

[Merseymike]

Left party 64
Greens. 60
Center. 59
Social Democrats. 54
Liberals. 49
Sweden Democrats. 29
Christian Democrats. 25
Moderates. 18

[WJ]

It's on a knife edge!

Exit poll:

V 25 -3
S 104 +4
MP 20 +4
C 27 -4
L 17 -3
KD 18 -4
M 66 -4
SD 72 +10

[Deleted]

I like this graphic.

[WJ]

Minor comedy moment on the SVT live stream, where they turn up at the voting room in Falun to make sure that everything is going according to plan. Some very dour looking tellers were sorting votes in the background.

There was a minor scandal in 2018 when the postal service and the kommun authorities cocked things up, so over 1000 votes were not counted. Seems everything is going smoothly this time!

[jamie]

Sept 11, 2022 18:12:46 GMT WJ said:

It's on a knife edge!

Exit poll:

V 25 -3
S 104 +4
MP 20 +4
C 27 -4
L 17 -3
KD 18 -4
M 66 -4
SD 72 +10

It says something about how narrow the result was last time that a knife edge projected result would see a swing to the government and a shift left in the median seat. 

[WJ]

I notice that turnout has taken a hit: 77.8% vs 87.2% in 2018

[Jonathan]

Sept 11, 2022 19:08:58 GMT WJ said:

I notice that turnout has taken a hit: 77.8% vs 87.2% in 2018

They said (on SVT) that it would tick up during the coming week by 4-5 points

[Georg Ebner]

11.000 voters were polled for the public broadCaster by the Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan (KTH) & Statsvetenskapliga Instutitionen (univ.Göteborg) in front of pollingStations:


They traditionally have the elderly&blueCollars underrepresented. These are their voteStreams:

www.svt.se/datajournalistik/valu2022/valjarstrommar/

I recommend to have a fast look before they will weight these numbers in few hours.