nelson
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Post by nelson on Jul 6, 2022 11:48:52 GMT
Sweden will be electing a new Riksdag on Sunday the 11th of September. There is a 4% national threshold and the Greens are currently below it in most polls.
As has been the case in recent Swedish elections government negotiations are going to be tricky, Social Democratic PM Magdalena Andersson needs to unite the liberal (economically Thatcherite) Centre Party and the hard left Left Party behind her, her challenger Ulf Kristersson from the Moderates also have to unite parties that won't govern together, but his task is somewhat easier.
Parties with a chance of entering the Riksdag:
Sweden Democrats (SD): Right wing populists with a fairly moderate platform, but some unsavory roots on the far right and has been tainted by a continuous string of scandals involving party members. Led by the very capable Jimmie Åkesson, one of the best communicators in Swedish politics.
Christian Democrats (KD): The most right wing of the Nordic Christian Democrats with roots in free church circles outside of the established Lutheran church (Pentecostals etc.), has over the years been joined by people who don't consider the Moderates to be true blue Conservatives. Still has "soft" positions on development aid, family reunification, healthcare and elderly care, but generally to the right of the Moderates on most issues.
Moderates (M): The Swedish Conservatives, the country's main centre-right party that unites a fairly broad coalition of traditional Conservatives and "business liberals", has moved closer to SD on immigration in recent years. Led by Ulf Kristersson, who is the centre-right's PM candidate. He was originally a business liberal, but has reinvented himself as a more hardline Conservative.
Liberals (L): Mainly the party of professionals in the big cities, looked destined to finish below the threshold due to factional infighting and lack of a clear profile. But a combination of the other Liberal party (Centre) gearing up for governing with the Social Democrats and the Ukraine war lifting issues they have been the strongest advocates for (NATO membership, defence, nuclear power and energy independence) to the top of the political agenda seems to have saved them. Currently controlled by their right wing (known as the "Requirement Liberals") but also has a Social Liberal left wing. They have a leadership election coming up in December, but their interim leader is currently doing a good job.
Centre (C): Traditionally a centrist party representing rural interests and with a green image on non-farming/forestry related issues, but has for a long time included economically thatcherite/libertarian and socially progressive/"woke" urban middle class voters, their party leader Annie Lööf is both a farmers' daughter and an economic thatcherite and one of the most controversial figures in Swedish politics. Their diehard opposition to the Sweden Democrats has led the party to prefer a SocDem led government to a centre-right dependent on SD. The main centre-right party in big parts of Northern Sweden where it tends to be a more traditional centre-right party.
Social Democratic Labour Party (S or SAP): Historically one of the world's strongest and most dominant Social Democratic parties they led the government 1932-1976 (apart from a few months in 1936) during which time they transformed Sweden from a quite harsh class society to an egalitarian welfare state, known as the Folkhem (home of the people), but their core voters are dying off and the party has less appeal to younger voters, they currently form a one-party government after the Greens left it.
The Left Party (V): The former Communist Party, which now has a broader ecologist, anti-racist and feminist appeal but is still more ideologically driven than most ex-Communist parties. Led by 37-year old ethnically Kurdish Nooshi Dadgostar, who has shown willingness to challenge the SocDems in a more robust manner than previous party leaders.
The Greens (Mp): Progressive and environmentalist party, was originally co-founded by Liberals and includes more centrist types locally, but is now firmly on the left nationally. A party in crisis which has been unable to benefit from the climate crisis, is seen as a perpetual junior partner to the SAP and has had problems with entryism from Islamists.
The parties' preferred government among the realistic options (an S, V, Mp majority is considered unrealistic):
Sweden Democrats: M, SD, KD (distrust L), won't promise to support a government they aren't part of Moderates: M, KD, L with confidence-and-supply from SD Christian Democrats: M/KD with confidence-and-supply from SD and L Liberals: M, KD, L with as little influence to SD as possible
Centre: Unofficially S/C, oppose any formalized agreement with V Social Democrats: S/C with Mp added if need be Greens: Majority government of S, V, Mp and C with conflicts solved internally Left Party: Majority government of S, V, Mp and C with conflicts solved internally
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Aug 4, 2022 16:10:52 GMT
Just got back from travels to find two interesting pieces of post in my letterbox.
The first is my overseas citizen ballot which I can either post (after it it signed by two witnesses) or I can present at to embassy between the 18th of August and the 10th of September. I'm tempted to go for the latter option as I've never voted "in person" before and I can make a day of it in Budapest. Included in the envelope is an instructions sheet with my registration details. A blank sheet of yellow paper where I can write my preferred party, which goes in a little envelope. That then goes in a larger envelope where I sign my name and where my witnesses sign to confirm that it is me casting the vote. That all then goes in a third envelope which has the electoral commission's address on. I did not need to request this, as a citizen this was automatic.
The second piece of post was a campaign letter from Moderaterna. This included two Moderaterna ballots with their list of candidates.
I look forward to finding out whether any other parties have found/ will bother to spam me at my Hungarian address!
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 5, 2022 10:01:47 GMT
Magdalena Andersson's "NATO bonus" seems to be evaporating and the SocDems are now well below 30%. The Liberals gain another point and are now at 5.7%. Clear majority (50.6%) to the centre-right opposition.
Left Party 7.7 SocDems 28.7 Greens 4.8
Centre 7.2
Liberals 5.7 Moderates 20.3 Christian Democrats 6.9 Sweden Democrats 17.7
Others 1.0
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 5, 2022 10:28:21 GMT
The SocDem campaign is built around Magdalena Andersson's person, hoping to cash in on her being the most trusted candidate for PM, with schools, crime and pensions as the main theme. The Moderates' campaign is focused on showing how much the right agree on (energy, defence, law n' order, immigration etc.) compared to S, C, V and Mp. So "presidential election" and "unity vs. coalition of chaos". Both sides treat the pensioners as the decisive swing vote.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Aug 5, 2022 11:02:12 GMT
Magdalena Andersson's "NATO bonus" seems to be evaporating and the SocDems are now well below 30%. The Liberals gain another point and are now at 5.7%. Clear majority (50.6%) to the centre-right opposition. Left Party 7.7 SocDems 28.7 Greens 4.8 Centre 7.2 Liberals 5.7 Moderates 20.3 Christian Democrats 6.9 Sweden Democrats 17.7 Others 1.0 Changes since last sampling (22-30 Jun) Left Party 7.7 (-0.7) SocDems 28.7 (-1.6) Greens 4.8 (-0.1) Centre 7.2 (+0.1) Liberals 5.7 (+1.0) Moderates 20.3 (-0.7) Christian Democrats 6.9 (+0.8) Sweden Democrats 17.7 (+1.4) Others 1.0 (-0.2) There's a fair bit of fluctuation around 30% for Socialdemokraterna which seems to be their ceiling since 2018. Liberalerna being on course to clear the 4% threshold and MP hovering dangerously close to it will have more influence over bloc arithmetic than the absolute vote of S/M/SD. Note that this particular pollster is particulary good for MP, most other polling companies this summer have put them at least 1% lower (and therefore below the threshold) and tends to put S on the lower end. A back-of-fag-packet calculation would suggest on this poll that the seat allocations would look something like this: V 27 S 101 MP 17 C 26 L 20 M 71 KD 25 SD 62 Therefore on most likely party constellations, the right will beat the left: V+S+MP 145 V+S+MP+C 171 S+MP+C 144 L+M+KD 116 L+M+KD+SD 178 M+KD+SD 158 The only vaguely realistic way to avoid this on these numbers would be if there was a V+S+MP+C situation and a M+KD+SD coalition which L decided to not support.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 9, 2022 20:28:39 GMT
Long over are the days, when C was a really rural party, often not even running in the cities - cf. the deViations of the regions from national average:
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Aug 9, 2022 20:44:06 GMT
They've defied gravity for a while now with their balancing of their rural and internationalist bases. I suspect that's down to Lööf's personality. The people who call her controversial are the sort who dislike how her popularity transcends party boundaries. Some of the shine has definitely come off in recent years though and I think we may see a decline in the fortune of the party in the coming years as the balance becomes untenable.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 9, 2022 21:10:21 GMT
They've defied gravity for a while now with their balancing of their rural and internationalist bases. I suspect that's down to Lööf's personality. The people who call her controversial are the sort who dislike how her popularity transcends party boundaries. Some of the shine has definitely come off in recent years though and I think we may see a decline in the fortune of the party in the coming years as the balance becomes untenable. Sifo have her on -29% net approval today. More knowledgeable people will be able to say how much a decline that is from her more popular days.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 9, 2022 21:19:27 GMT
Long over are the days, when C was a really rural party, often not even running in the cities - cf. the deViations of the regions from national average: What's your point? Seems you're strawmanning. Sweden is heavily urbanised so no party is majority rural, but Centre is still the biggest party among farmers and forest owners, and the main centre-right party in rural communities in the north and quite strong in many other places. You can't use county results to show the urban-rural divide, since there are urban areas in all counties and Swedish industrialisation was so decentralised, all you can use them for in this context is the divide between the three biggest cities and the rest of the country. They are obviously still the biggest peasantsParty, but nonetheless the disCrepances have been diminishing over time (also their overRepresentation in NorrLand). And that it's the 3 cities vs. the rest, is also well-known. Fine, if You can provide a more detailed anaLysis, for me doing the same for the municipalities would have admittingly been too much work (and then there emerges the problem of how to group them), the counties required already many hours.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 9, 2022 21:23:44 GMT
As part of their attempt to attract rural Centre voters who are dissatisfied with their party cosying up to the SocDems the Christian Democrats have launched a new farmer's organization called The Christian Democratic Farmer's Association (KDB) whose leader is former Centre MP (2004-14 & 2015-18) Staffan Danielsson (75) from East Gothland, but with family ties (both parents born there) to Bible Belt heartland Småland.
The Federation of Swedish Farmers (LRF) has 170k members incl. most of the country's agriculture and forestry coops and 23k "village members" who aren't farmers, but ordinary residents in rural areas. It's non-aligned, but with lots of Centre members in central positions.
I doubt they'll be much of a threat to LRF, which is a very strong, wealthy and influential interest organization, but it's still a clear sign that they think C is vulnerable in rural areas.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Aug 9, 2022 21:59:39 GMT
They've defied gravity for a while now with their balancing of their rural and internationalist bases. I suspect that's down to Lööf's personality. The people who call her controversial are the sort who dislike how her popularity transcends party boundaries. Some of the shine has definitely come off in recent years though and I think we may see a decline in the fortune of the party in the coming years as the balance becomes untenable. Sifo have her on -29% net approval today. More knowledgeable people will be able to say how much a decline that is from her more popular days. Do you have a link for those figures? I've not seen them yet. Last figure's I've seen (June) had her on 24% approval. She got of to a fairly rocky start until after the 2014 election. In the lead up to- and the immediate aftermath of- the last election, she was one of the most popular leaders with 40+% approval ratings. But she's been party leader since 2011 (second longest of the current main party leaders) and maybe she will be looking towards retirement in the aftermath of this election. Then again, we probably shouldn't get too carried away. C's 2018 result was one of their best in decades (Lööf effect?), so if they drop down to 6ish%, then they're just returning to their normal level.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 10, 2022 9:30:12 GMT
With her economical policies Lööf should have gone to the Liberals. Her father was a Centre-member.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Aug 10, 2022 9:40:40 GMT
It didn't make much difference when C and L were still in the same block. But now they find themselves on different sides of the aisle it has highlighted the problems and inconsistencies with having two "liberal" parties with a lot of overlap between them.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 12, 2022 18:04:35 GMT
As a result the SocialDem.s try to make it a presidential election; whereas the posters of the Moderates paint it as dividedness&chaos on the left vs. agreement&order on the right (although realiter the Blue Bloc does not even agree on which party to integrate into the cabinet).
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 18, 2022 7:37:31 GMT
Polling average from Politico: The two "blocs" are neck and neck; both the Liberals and Greens are consistently above the threshold, L after attracting right leaning C voters and the Greens likely due to committed tactical voters (hard to see what they've done on their own that could explain increased support). Given how good the Swedish Social Democrats are at gaining during the final stretch of a campaign I'd say the government is favoured to win reelection on those numbers. ... A couple of scandals: Christian Democrats agreeing to big anonymous donations on hidden camera and yet another paedophile Centre politician exposed, they've had a string of those in recent years, must be the libertarian appeal that attract those types. Will be interesting to see if any of it sticks. Centre doubling down on why the Left Party can't be in government. According to Lööf there can't be any anti-NATO or anti-EU parties in the government. Given that the SocDems were against NATO membership until a few months ago and Centre was traditionally eurosceptic and have plenty of anti-EU people on the local level that's a bit rich.
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Post by matureleft on Aug 18, 2022 7:49:25 GMT
Polling average from Politico: The two "blocs" are neck and neck; both the Liberals and Greens are consistently above the threshold, L after attracting right leaning C voters and the Greens likely due to committed tactical voters (hard to see what they've done on their own that could explain increased support). Given how good the Swedish Social Democrats are at gaining during the final stretch of a campaign I'd say the government is favoured to win reelection on those numbers. ... A couple of scandals: Christian Democrats agreeing to big anonymous donations on hidden camera and yet another paedophile Centre politician exposed, they've had a string of those in recent years, must be the libertarian appeal that attract those types. Will be interesting to see if any of it sticks. Centre doubling down on why the Left Party can't be in government. According to Lööf there can't be any anti-NATO or anti-EU parties in the government. Given that the SocDems were against NATO membership until a few months ago and Centre was traditionally eurosceptic and have plenty of anti-EU people on the local level that's a bit rich. Presumably based on their historically higher level of support with a quite large portion of the electorate having voted that way at some point in the past? Plus their still pretty robust organisation nationwide?
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 18, 2022 8:14:38 GMT
The two "blocs" are neck and neck; both the Liberals and Greens are consistently above the threshold, L after attracting right leaning C voters and the Greens likely due to committed tactical voters (hard to see what they've done on their own that could explain increased support). Given how good the Swedish Social Democrats are at gaining during the final stretch of a campaign I'd say the government is favoured to win reelection on those numbers. Presumably based on their historically higher level of support with a quite large portion of the electorate having voted that way at some point in the past? Plus their still pretty robust organisation nationwide? Yes, they remain the default option for a lot of older Swedes, and the combined impact of their trade union support, excellent party organization, committed membership and remaining aligned media and social organizations is a force to be reckoned with.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Aug 19, 2022 7:25:46 GMT
Heading to Budapest on Tuesday to vote. Moderaterna are still the only party to track me down in Hungary and I'm still undecided as to who I'll vote for.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 19, 2022 10:16:37 GMT
A couple of scandals: Christian Democrats agreeing to big anonymous donations on hidden camera Both the SocDems, Moderates, Liberals and SD were also caught in the trap set up by tv-magazine "Kalla fakta" (Cold facts). But while the SocDems and Liberals have fired the people responsible, KD's leader Ebba Busch has doubled down and defended it as "not illegal" while completely dismissing the question of whether it's ethical or against the spirit of the campaign finance legislation, a bad look for a party supposedly based on a set of ethical principles.
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Post by rcronald on Aug 19, 2022 11:43:04 GMT
A couple of scandals: Christian Democrats agreeing to big anonymous donations on hidden camera Both the SocDems, Moderates, Liberals and SD were also caught in the trap set up by tv-magazine "Kalla fakta" (Cold facts). But while the SocDems and Liberals have fired the people responsible, KD's leader Ebba Busch has doubled down and defended it as "not illegal" while completely dismissing the question of whether it's ethical or against the spirit of the campaign finance legislation, a bad look for a party supposedly based on a set of ethical principles. If the donation was technically legal and all parties take such donations irl, then not firing the the person responsible in order to satisfy the bloodthirsty press is the principled position to take.
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