Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 8, 2022 18:32:51 GMT
Lib Dem - 919 Conservative - 620 Labour - 559 Green - 104 Independent - 44 No More Refugees - 1 I'm not surprised - candidates who do not want to be elected really ought not to stand at all if the seat is even remotely winnable. I think voters would be justifiably annoyed. Well maybe, but accidents will happen from time to time. This was one of those times. |
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Post by owainsutton on Jul 8, 2022 18:34:45 GMT
I'm not surprised - candidates who do not want to be elected really ought not to stand at all if the seat is even remotely winnable. I think voters would be justifiably annoyed. Well maybe, but accidents will happen from time to time. This was one of those times. Margins of error can be difficult to estimate. 2019 did also see accidental elections for the Green Party. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 8, 2022 23:20:28 GMT
Camden: Hampstead Town - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour| Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 919 | 40.9% | +18.6% | +20.1% | | Conservative | 620 | 27.6% | -12.3% | -11.8% | | Labour | 559 | 24.9% | -12.9% | -15.0% | | Green | 104 | 4.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 44 | 2.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | National Housing | 1 | 0.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 2,247 |
| 82% | 89% |
Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat 15¾% / 17½% since May with Conservative to Liberal Democrat 15½% / 16%. Council now: 46 Labour, 5 Liberal Democrat, 3 Conservative, 1 Green Chesterfield: Hollingwood & Inkersall - Labour gain from Independent| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 747 | 48.5% | +15.2% | +15.1% | +1.9% | +2.8% | | Independent Rhodes | 676 | 43.9% | -9.1% | -9.2% | +18.8% | +19.7% | | Green | 118 | 7.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative |
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| -8.6% | -9.2% | -17.1% | -18.1% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -5.2% | -4.4% | -11.3% | -12.0% | | Total votes | 1,541 |
| 92% | 98% | 40% | 42% |
Swing: if meaningful Independent to Labour 12¼% since 2019 but Labour to Independent 8½% since 2015 Council now: 29 Labour, 17 Liberal Democrat, 2 Community Independent Epsom & Ewell - West Ewell - Residents Associations hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Residents Associations | 549
| 43.4% | -27.9% | -28.9% | -6.2% | -5.7% | | Labour | 395 | 31.2% | +20.2% | +20.4% | +15.0% | +15.0% | | Conservative | 205 | 16.2% | +7.8% | +8.3% | -7.5% | -7.3% | | Liberal Democrat | 117 | 9.2% | -0.1% | +0.3% | -1.4% | -2.0% | | Total votes | 1,266 |
| 90% | 93% | 39% | 41% |
Swing: Residents Associations to Labour 24% / 24¾% since 2019 and 10½% since 2015 Council now: 32 Residents Association, 3 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Conservative Hackney: De Beauvoir - Labour hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | | Labour | 758 | 41.5% | -15.5% | -15.8% | -17.9% | -19.2% | | Green | 731 | 40.3% | +18.3% | +21.3% | +21.7% | +24.8% | | Liberal Democrat | 133 | 7.3% | -5.0% | -6.6% | -6.5% | -7.9% | | Independent Network | 83 | 4.6% | -3.8% | -4.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 82 | 4.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -2.4% | -2.6% | | Women's Equality | 27 | 1.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Polish Pride |
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| -1.0% | -1.1% | | Total votes | 1,814 |
| 74% | 84% | 75% | 85% |
Swing: Labour to Green 17% / 18½% since May and 19¾% / 22% since 2018
Council now: 50 Labour, 5 Conservative, 2 Green
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 8, 2022 23:33:54 GMT
Milton Keynes: Woughton & Fishermead - Labour hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2019 | since 2018 | | Labour | 1,355 | 73.3% | +3.4% | +15.6% | +15.6% | +12.9% | +10.2% | | Conservative | 340 | 18.4% | -1.8% | -7.7% | -6.5% | -2.0% | -6.7% | | Liberal Democrat | 154 | 8.3% | -1.6% | +2.7% | +2.4% | +1.1% | +3.3% | | Green |
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| -10.6% | -11.5% | -12.0% | -6.8% | | Total votes | 1,849 |
| 76% | 66% | 72% | 79% | 71% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 2½% since May, 11¾% / 11% since 2021, 7½% since 2019 and 8½% since 2018 Council now: 23 Conservative, 20 Labour, 14 Liberal Democrat Mole Valley: Charlwood - Green gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 | since 2015 | since 2011 | | Green | 284 | 41.7% | +13.6% | +35.3% | +29.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 210 | 30.8% | +19.5% | +19.0% | +12.0% | | Conservative | 166 | 24.4% | -22.0% | -39.3% | -44.3% | | Labour | 21 | 3.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP |
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| -14.1% | -18.1% |
| | Total votes | 681 |
| 112% | 56% | 92% |
Swing: Conservative to Green 19¾% since 2019, 37¼% since 2015 and 36¾% since 2011 Council now: 24 Liberal Democrat, 9 Conservative, 6 Ashtead Independent, 1 Green Welwyn Hatfield: Hatfield Central - Labour hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | | Labour | 599 | 53.7% | +0.9% | +11.7% | +8.6% | -0.1% | | Conservative | 273 | 24.4% | -9.0% | -18.2% | -9.2% | -7.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 183 | 16.4% | +2.6% | +7.4% | -4.8% | +1.8% | | Abolish TV Licence | 61 | 5.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Abolish Town Council |
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| -6.3% |
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| | Total votes | 1,116
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| 80% | 82% | 86% | 79% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 5% since May, 15% since 2021, 9% since 2019 and 3½% since 2018 Council now: 26 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 10 Labour West Sussex: Worthing West - Labour hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2017 | | Labour | 1,262 | 52.0% | +5.7% | +30.2% | | Conservative | 795 | 32.8% | -6.4% | -18.8% | | Liberal Democrat | 235 | 9.7% | +5.3% | -2.3% | | Green | 133 | 5.5% | -1.8% | -3.0% | | Independent |
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| -2.9% |
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| -6.1% | | Total votes | 2,425 |
| 62% | 78% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 6% since 2021 and 24j% since 2017 Council now: 47 Conservative, 11 Liberal Democrat, 9 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Independent, 1 Local Alliance
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 8, 2022 23:39:00 GMT
I was unable to gain access to only this site for much of the day, yet I see people have posted throughout the day. Have others had the same problem as me? Does it depend on what system you are using? Or was the site coming and going during the day and I was unfortunate when trying to log on?
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 8, 2022 23:58:54 GMT
I was unable to gain access to only this site for much of the day, yet I see people have posted throughout the day. Have others had the same problem as me? Does it depend on what system you are using? Or was the site coming and going during the day and I was unfortunate when trying to log on? I've not had any problems. Have you had problems accessing other sites? What errors were you getting when you tried to log on here? |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 9, 2022 0:11:36 GMT
I was unable to gain access to only this site for much of the day, yet I see people have posted throughout the day. Have others had the same problem as me? Does it depend on what system you are using? Or was the site coming and going during the day and I was unfortunate when trying to log on? I've not had any problems. Have you had problems accessing other sites? What errors were you getting when you tried to log on here? I have had no other problems apart from a short time when Andrew Teale's LEAP site was unavailable. I was getting an "angry bear" page from mid / late morning until around 6.00 pm. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 9, 2022 0:22:10 GMT
I've not had any problems. Have you had problems accessing other sites? What errors were you getting when you tried to log on here? I have had no other problems apart from a short time when Andrew Teale's LEAP site was unavailable. I was getting an "angry bear" page from mid / late morning until around 6.00 pm. Which suggests a server problem at the proboards end that only affected some users. |
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Post by November_Rain on Jul 9, 2022 7:40:15 GMT
One vote?! What was the point of that. Granted the party is nutty, but that is something else.
How long until we see 'I'm sorry....zero votes' in these local by-elections?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 9, 2022 10:29:42 GMT
There have been a few instances of zero votes in the past, though it is suspected that at least some of them were counting errors.
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 9, 2022 13:37:28 GMT
I've not had any problems. Have you had problems accessing other sites? What errors were you getting when you tried to log on here? I have had no other problems apart from a short time when Andrew Teale's LEAP site was unavailable. I was getting an "angry bear" page from mid / late morning until around 6.00 pm. Nothing obvious showing up on the LEAP server logs for yesterday, so whatever the problem you were having was it wasn't there. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jul 10, 2022 6:42:31 GMT
Interesting set of results this week - Inner London Remainia swinging away from Labour, commuterbelt wards swinging towards Labour.
The West Ewell result actually isn’t that surprising to me, it’s not posh Ewell Village. This is in the western half of the district which is more lower middle class/upper working class. There might be some demographic factors helping a little bit, maybe young professional couples in their 30s are selling their one bedroom flats in Inner London and moving out to suburbia (priced out of Kingston and Wimbledon) in order to start families but sticking with their left leaning politics. Next election could be a lot more interesting here than in recent years, I predict the Residents will still on hold the council for certain, however there are new ward boundaries here and there are perhaps three other wards here for Labour to target - Ruxley, Town and perhaps the new Horton ward.
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Post by batman on Jul 10, 2022 7:18:59 GMT
Inner London Remainia, as you put it, swung away from Labour, but I'm sure that the particularly unpropitious reasons for those by-elections had a lot to do with it. Will we see such a phenomenon in Tooting Broadway, where the by-election was unavoidable because of the death of the councillor? I'm not expecting it.
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Post by londonseal80 on Jul 10, 2022 8:21:31 GMT
Tooting Broadway will be an easy Labour Hold for sure. There might be slight swing to the Greens (who may take second place) but nothing to even remotely threaten Labours strong position in that ward.
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Post by batman on Jul 10, 2022 8:47:12 GMT
yes that's my presumption too. It was as Tooting for a time Labour's safest ward in Wandsworth, but Furzedown seems to be now. The new Falconbrook ward also very safe
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