Prediction Competition - June 2022

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 17 by-elections and 4 deferred elections for a total of 24 seats during June.

- 3 by-elections on 9 June
- 3 by-elections and 1 deferred election on 16 June
- 3 by-elections and 2 deferred elections on 23 June
- 8 by-elections and 1 deferred election on 30 June

11 by-elections are for District Councils, two of which were last contested in May, 2 last contested in a 2021 by-election with the last regular election in 2019 and the remaining 7 in 2019
4 are for Unitary Authorities, two of which were last contested in 2021 and the remaining 2 in 2019
1 by-election and 1 deferred election are for a Metropolitan Borough, both last contested in 2021
1 by-election and 1 deferred election are for a London Borough Council, one last contested in May and 1 in 2018
1 deferred election is for a Welsh Council last contested in 2017
1 deferred election is for a Scottish Council last contested in May

Conservatives defend 10 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 6 a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as an Independent
Labour defend 7 seats including 3 of the deferred election seats, one following the death of the previous councillor and 3 resignations, 1 of which was sitting as an independent
Liberal Democrats notionally defend the 3 seats in 1 of the deferred elections
Independents defend 2 seats, both following resignations
Independent Community and Health Concern defend 1 seat following a resignation, although have not put up a candidate
One of the seats for the deferred election is on new ward boundaries

With all SOPNs now published, there are 20 candidates apiece for Conservatives and Labour, 16 Liberal Democrats, 12 Greens, 2 Plaid Cymru, 2 UKIP, 2 Kingston Independent Residents’ Group and 1 apiece for SNP, Scottish Greens, Yorkshire Party, SDP, and Harlow Alliance together with 13 Independents contesting 8 seats
- a total of 92 candidates for 24 seats.

The Eilean Siar contest in Barra has been excluded from the competition due to it being an Independent-only contest. Top vote for the 2 multi-seat deferred elections and seat winners specified if you have anything other than a clean sweep of the top vote winner. Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[batman]

BRECKLAND, Mattishall : C 42 Ind 40 Lab 18

CRAWLEY, Southgate : Lab 48 C 42 Green 10

SEVENOAKS, Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone : LD 51 C 49

[Tony Otim]

Jun 2, 2022 16:15:17 GMT robbienicoll said:

There appears to be 17 by-elections and 4 deferred elections for a total of 24 seats during June.

- 3 by-elections on 9 June
- 3 by-elections and 1 deferred election on 16 June
- 3 by-elections and 2 deferred elections on 23 June
- 8 by-elections and 1 deferred election on 30 June

11 by-elections are for District Councils, two of which were last contested in May, 2 last contested in a 2021 by-election with the last regular election in 2019 and the remaining 7 in 2019
4 are for Unitary Authorities, two of which were last contested in 2021 and the remaining 2 in 2019
1 by-election and 1 deferred election are for a Metropolitan Borough, both last contested in 2021
1 by-election and 1 deferred election are for a London Borough Council, one last contested in May and 1 in 2018
1 deferred election is for a Welsh Council last contested in 2017
1 deferred election is for a Scottish Council last contested in May

Conservatives defend 10 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 6 a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as an Independent
Labour defend 7 seats including 3 of the deferred election seats, one following the death of the previous councillor and 3 resignations, 1 of which was sitting as an independent
Liberal Democrats notionally defend the 3 seats in 1 of the deferred elections
Independents defend 2 seats, both following resignations
Independent Community and Health Concern defend 1 seat following a resignation, although have not put up a candidate
One of the seats for the deferred election is on new ward boundaries

With all but 2 SOPNs now published, there are 18 candidates apiece for Conservatives and Labour, 16 Liberal Democrats, 12 Greens, 2 Plaid Cymru, 2 UKIP, 2 Kingston Independent Residents’ Group and 1 apiece for SNP, Scottish Greens, Yorkshire Party, SDP, and Harlow Alliance together with 13 Independents contesting 8 seats
- a total of 88 candidates for 22 seats.

The Eilean Siar contest in Barra has been excluded from the competition due to it being an Independent-only contest. Top vote for the 2 multi-seat deferred elections and seat winners specified if you have anything other than a clean sweep of the top vote winner. Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

On a point of clarification - for Neath Port Talbot there are 2 independents for the 2 seats - can I confirm that we treat them separately rather than as a joint slate with one top vote...

[robbienicoll]

Jun 2, 2022 21:24:56 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 2, 2022 16:15:17 GMT robbienicoll said:

There appears to be 17 by-elections and 4 deferred elections for a total of 24 seats during June.

- 3 by-elections on 9 June
- 3 by-elections and 1 deferred election on 16 June
- 3 by-elections and 2 deferred elections on 23 June
- 8 by-elections and 1 deferred election on 30 June

11 by-elections are for District Councils, two of which were last contested in May, 2 last contested in a 2021 by-election with the last regular election in 2019 and the remaining 7 in 2019
4 are for Unitary Authorities, two of which were last contested in 2021 and the remaining 2 in 2019
1 by-election and 1 deferred election are for a Metropolitan Borough, both last contested in 2021
1 by-election and 1 deferred election are for a London Borough Council, one last contested in May and 1 in 2018
1 deferred election is for a Welsh Council last contested in 2017
1 deferred election is for a Scottish Council last contested in May

Conservatives defend 10 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 6 a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as an Independent
Labour defend 7 seats including 3 of the deferred election seats, one following the death of the previous councillor and 3 resignations, 1 of which was sitting as an independent
Liberal Democrats notionally defend the 3 seats in 1 of the deferred elections
Independents defend 2 seats, both following resignations
Independent Community and Health Concern defend 1 seat following a resignation, although have not put up a candidate
One of the seats for the deferred election is on new ward boundaries

With all but 2 SOPNs now published, there are 18 candidates apiece for Conservatives and Labour, 16 Liberal Democrats, 12 Greens, 2 Plaid Cymru, 2 UKIP, 2 Kingston Independent Residents’ Group and 1 apiece for SNP, Scottish Greens, Yorkshire Party, SDP, and Harlow Alliance together with 13 Independents contesting 8 seats
- a total of 88 candidates for 22 seats.

The Eilean Siar contest in Barra has been excluded from the competition due to it being an Independent-only contest. Top vote for the 2 multi-seat deferred elections and seat winners specified if you have anything other than a clean sweep of the top vote winner. Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

On a point of clarification - for Neath Port Talbot there are 2 independents for the 2 seats - can I confirm that we treat them separately rather than as a joint slate with one top vote...

Yes, and thanks for making sure of that!

[kevinf]

June 9
Breckland Con 48, Lab 29, Ind 23
Crawley. Lab 46, Con 31, Green 23
Sevenoaks Con 55 LD 45

[Tony Otim]

Breckland: Oechsle 45.5; Con 39.9; Lab 14.6
CRawley: Lab 54.2; Con 35.9; Grn 9.9
Sevenoaks: LD 52.5; Con 47.5

[Richard Cromwell]

Southgate, Crawley

LAB	51%
CON	38%
GRN	11%

Penshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone, Sevenoaks

CON	56%
LDEM	44%

Mattishall, Breckland

CON	39%
LAB	31%
IND	30%

[greenhert]

Breckland DC, Mattishall: Conservative 42, Independent (Oeschle) 35, Labour 23.
Crawley BC, Southgate: Labour 51, Conservative 42, Green 7.
Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone: Conservative 59, Liberal Democrats 41.

[peterl]

Breckland DC, Mattishall: Independent (Oeschle) 42, Conservative 39, Labour 19.
Crawley BC, Southgate: Labour 48, Conservative 43, Green 9.
Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone: Liberal Democrats 53, Conservative 47.

[andrewp]

Breckland, Mattishall. Ind 47, Con 38, Lab 15
Crawley, Southgate, Lab 55, Con 37, Green 8
Sevenoaks, Penshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone LD 54, Con 46

[Robert Waller]

Breckland DC, Mattishall: Conservative 35, Independent (Oeschle) 43, Labour 22.

Crawley BC, Southgate: Labour 54, Conservative 33, Green 13.

Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone: Conservative 45, Liberal Democrats 55.

[agbutler]

Breckland, Mattishall. Ind 45, Con 36, Lab 19
Crawley, Southgate, Lab 58, Con 35, Green 7
Sevenoaks, Penshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone LD 60, Con 40

[yellowperil]

Breckland, Mattishall: Con 38, Lab 20, Ind 42.
Crawley, Southgate: Con 35, Lab 57, GP 8.
Sevenoaks, Penshurst,Fordcombe & Chiddingstone: Con 45, LD 55.

[rightleaning]

Breckland, Mattishall. Ind 48, Con 32, Lab 20
Crawley, Southgate, Lab 52, Con 38, Gn 10
Sevenoaks, Penshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone LD 56, Con 44

[iainbhx]

Breckland DC, Mattishall : Con 39 Ind Oeschle 37 Lab 24
Crawley BC, Southgate : Lab 53 Con 40 Grn 7
Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone : LDm 53 Con 47

[Smartie]

Breckland - Ind 37, Con 35, Lab 28

Crawley - Lab 55.8, Con 37. 5, Grn 6.7

Sevenoaks - LDem 56.8, Con 43.2

[casualobserver]

BRECKLAND, Mattishall : Con 34; Ind 38; Lab 28

CRAWLEY, Southgate : Lab 47; Con 38; Grn 15

SEVENOAKS, Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone : LibDem 57; Con 43

[robbienicoll]

14 entries to open the month, with casualobserver making a welcome return. All on time and correct.

Mattishall, Breckland: 9 Independent (Oechsle) gain from Conservative, with batman, greenhert, iainbhx, kevinf and Richard Cromwell Conservative hold.

Southgate, Crawley: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (peterl) to 23% (agbutler).

Penhurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone, Sevenoaks: 11 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with greenhert, kevinf and Richard Cromwell Conservative hold.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16LWJaD1NZS7tAmFX6Df9f53t00vVpl-JUSaotkbCUsg/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[johnloony]

Crawley: Lab 667 Con 666 Green 222 Recounts 4

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to batman for a thoroughly deserved win for the week, and to iainbhx for running him so close. A lot of quite low scores this week but not all of us could quite keep up with that level of consistency, especially when it came to what was normal for Norfolk.