Prediction Competition - June 2022

[Robert Waller]

Jun 16, 2022 23:12:32 GMT batman said:

And I got the winner wrong, comfortably, in Wyre Forest. Although plenty others did too. It is a toughie to predict, that one.

Yet .... my prediction is, still in the lead for the month after all 4 results this week!

[Robert Waller]

Looking at robbienicoll’s spreadsheet
Something seems to have gone very wrong with the C faults of iainbhx and johnloony in Sussex …?

I make the faults a lot lower.

[Robert Waller]

Nevertheless, (see previous post) despite my reckoning being 52 faults less for Iain and 39 less for John, I agree that batman has won this week too, and consolidates his first place in June so far!

An excellent week for kevinf too.

[kevinf]

Jun 17, 2022 8:44:47 GMT Robert Waller said:

Nevertheless, (see previous post) despite my reckoning being 52 faults less for Iain and 39 less for John, I agree that batman has won this week too, and consolidates his first place in June so far!

An excellent week for kevinf too.

I needed that!

[batman]

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES, New Malden Village (top candidates) : LD 51 Con 25 KIRG 12 Lab 7 Green 5

NEATH PORT TALBOT, Port Talbot (top candidates) : Lab 60 Ind Davies 16 Ind Isherwood 13 PC 8 Green 3

HARLOW, Bush Fair : Lab 42 Con 41 Green 9 Harlow Alliance 8

SHROPSHIRE, Highley : Con 43 Lab 37 LD 12 Green 8

WAVERLEY, Hindhead : LD 53 Con 47

[andrewp]

Are we treating the 2x Independents in Neath as a team or separately?

[Tony Otim]

Jun 21, 2022 7:57:46 GMT andrewp said:

Are we treating the 2x Independents in Neath as a team or separately?

Separately, I think

[batman]

Jun 21, 2022 8:06:43 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 21, 2022 7:57:46 GMT andrewp said:

Are we treating the 2x Independents in Neath as a team or separately?

Separately, I think

I've edited my prediction accordingly.

[peterl]

KINGSTON-UPON-THAMES, New Malden Village (top candidates) : LD 54 Con 21 KIRG 14 Green 6 Lab 5

NEATH PORT TALBOT, Port Talbot (top candidates) : Lab 51 Ind (Davies) 24 Ind (Isherwood) 15 PC 6 Green 4

HARLOW, Bush Fair : Lab 44 Con 40 Green 9 Harlow Alliance 7

SHROPSHIRE, Highley : Con 42 Lab 38 LD 11 Green 9

WAVERLEY, Hindhead : LD 55 Con 45

[Tony Otim]

Kingston: LD 51.3; Con 19.2; Lab 13.2; KIRG 9.8; Grn 6.5 (3x LD elected)
Neath Port Talbot: Davies 32.3; Lab 30.2; Isherwood 23.0; PC 9.8; Grn 4.7 (Davis & 1 Lab elected)
Harlow: Lab 44.1; Con 43.2; Harlow Alliance 6.9; Grn 5.8
Shropshire: Con 34.6; LD 29.1; Lab 25.4; Grn 10.9
Waverley: LD 61.2; Con 38.8

[robbienicoll]

Jun 17, 2022 7:25:54 GMT Robert Waller said:

Looking at robbienicoll ’s spreadsheet
Something seems to have gone very wrong with the C faults of iainbhx and johnloony in Sussex …?

I make the faults a lot lower.

Yes, coding issue there, now amended, and thanks for the spot!

[Richard Cromwell]

Hindhead, Waverley

LDEM	59%
CON	41%

Highley, Shropshire

CON	32%
LDEM	31%
LAB	26%
GRN	11%

Port Talbot, Neath Port Talbot

LAB	29%
Plaid Cymru	24%
John Davies	22%
Kimberly Anne Isherwood	17%
GRN	8%

New Malden Village, Kingston upon Thames

LDEM	41%
CON	34%
LAB	15%
Kingston Independent Residents	8%
GRN	2%

Bush Fair, Harlow

LAB	49%
CON	24%
Harlow Alliance	16%
LDEM	11%

[michaelarden]

For all those predicting the New Malden election it looks like there is an electoral pact between the Green and the Independent Residents:

[kevinf]

Kingston
LibDem 51 3 LD elected
Con 19
Lab 11
KIRG 11
Green 8

Neath PT
Davies 29 - elected
Lab 28 -- 1 elected
Isherwood - 22
Green - 11
PC - 10

Harlow
Lab 44
Con 36
Green 13
Harlow All 7

Shropshire
LibDem 35
Con 30
Lab 25
Green 10

Waverley
LibDem 55
Con - 45

[greenhert]

Harlow BC, Bush Fair: Labour 50, Conservative 39, Harlow Alliance 8, Green 3. Labour gain from Conservative.
Kingston-upon-Thames, New Malden Village (deferred election): Liberal Democrats 50 (3 LD elected), Conservative 22, Labour 16, Kingston Independent Residents Group 8, Green 4.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Port Talbot (deferred election): Labour 44 (2 Lab elected), Independent (Davies) 27, Independent (Isherwood) 15, Plaid Cymru 12, Green 2.
Shropshire UA, Highley: Liberal Democrats 42, Conservative 33, Labour 16, Green 9. Liberal Democrat gain from Independent.
Waverley DC, Hindhead: Liberal Democrats 56, Conservative 44. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

[andrewp]

Harlow. Bush Fair. Lab 45, Con 43, Green 7, Harlow 5
Kingston, New Malden Village. LD 49, Con 20, Res 17, Lab 9, Green 5
Neath, Port Talbot. Port Talbot. Lab 42. Davies 26, Isherwood 16, PC 12, Green 4. 2 x Lab elected
Shropshire. Highley. LD 40, Con 38, Green 13, Lab 9
Waverley. Hindhead. LD 55, Con 45

[yellowperil]

Kingston-upon-Thames, New Malden Village: Con 19, Lab 9, LD 47, GP 6, KIRG 19.LDx3 elected.
Neath Port Talbot,Port Talbot:Lab 42,GP 4, PC 12, Ind Davies 26, Ind Isherwood 16.
Lab 2x elected
Harlow, Bush Fair: Con 40, Lab 44, GP 7, HA 9.
Shropshire, Highley: Con 39, Lab 10, LD 40, GP 11.
Waverley, Hindhead: Con 46, LD 54.

[Robert Waller]

Harlow. Bush Fair: Lab 42, Con 38, Green 9, Harlow 11

Kingston, New Malden Village: LD 53, Con 20, Res 10, Lab 9, Green 8

Neath, Port Talbot: Port Talbot. Lab 38, Davies 20, Isherwood 22, PC 15, Green 5. 2 x Lab elected

Shropshire, Highley: LD 42, Con 36, Green 8, Lab 14

Waverley, Hindhead: LD 58, Con 42

[iainbhx]

Harlow DC, Bush Fair: Lab 42, Con 40, Grn 10, Harlow Alliance 8
Kingston LBC, New Maldon Village: LDm 45, Con 25, Res 11, Lab 10, Grn 9
Neath Port Talbot WUA: Lab 39 Ind Davies 24 Ind Isherwood 23, PC 10, Grn 4 2*Lab elected
Shropshire UA, Highley: Lab 35 Con 33 LDm 22 Grn 10
Waverley DC, Hindhead: LDm 60, Con 40

[rightleaning]

Harlow. Bush Fair. Lab 48, Con 39, Gn 9, Harlow 4
Kingston, New Malden Village. LD 51, Con 23, Res 11, Gn 9, Lab 6,
Neath, Port Talbot. Port Talbot. Lab 44, Davies 25, Isherwood 19, PC 8, Gn 4. 2 x Lab elected
Shropshire. Highley. LD 41, Con 36, Gn 15, Lab 8
Waverley. Hindhead. LD 59, Con 41