French Legislative Elections 2022

[Georg Ebner]

OpinionPoll 1 (already a little bit out-dated):

2: The voters of which left candidate/party support an alliance:


Constituencies (presently) distributed to the EELV (with the party of the inCumbent):

[relique]

Thank's for the thread and the map ! Even though they were elected as LREM, there are a few incumbents in EELV constituencies who left and joined EELV (Nord 15th Bailleul-Hazebrouck; Rhône 2nd Lyon...)

There are between 6 and 14 constituencies in the lot that are close to guaranteed if there's only one left-wing candidate. Mostly in big cities.

They are also given Marine Le Pen's constituency in Hénin-Beaumont, not because they can win (they certainly cannot and their ideas are highly unpopular there) but because they have a councillor who is probably the bravest of the left-wing activists there, continuing to stay there despite a very difficult position. Socialists and communists have abandoned the area and, even if I hate the Greens' politics, I must say I was glad she got the nomination, as a sign of respect for her braveness. She could easily have moved and gone into politics in Arras or Lille where Greens can have more of a future.

[ilerda]

Is this map just for EELV, or for general ecologists/members of the Ecologist Pole?

[relique]

May 3, 2022 8:16:35 GMT ilerda said:

Is this map just for EELV, or for general ecologists/members of the Ecologist Pole?

For the whole pole

It includes incumbent Delphine Batho, former PS and now Génération Écologie,and Cédric Villanie, former LREM and mathematician

[ilerda]

May 3, 2022 8:28:46 GMT relique said:

May 3, 2022 8:16:35 GMT ilerda said:

Is this map just for EELV, or for general ecologists/members of the Ecologist Pole?

For the whole pole

It includes incumbent Delphine Batho, former PS and now Génération Écologie,and Cédric Villanie, former LREM and mathematician

Thanks. I thought there were more incumbents than I remembered EELV winning list time, but didn't know if there had been that many defections to them directly.

[stb12]

I find the timing of these the French go for a bit odd, why not have legislative elections coincide with the Presidential election?

[mattbewilson]

May 3, 2022 8:50:28 GMT stb12 said:

I find the timing of these the French go for a bit odd, why not have legislative elections coincide with the Presidential election?

I think it's intentionally held afterwards to be a honeymoon election for the president

[mattbewilson]

The French left look like they'll be uniting to deny macron a majority

[stb12]

May 3, 2022 9:33:24 GMT mattbewilson said:

May 3, 2022 8:50:28 GMT stb12 said:

I find the timing of these the French go for a bit odd, why not have legislative elections coincide with the Presidential election?

I think it's intentionally held afterwards to be a honeymoon election for the president

Does seem that way, whereas the American system is basically designed to give the President divided government

[relique]

Communists and Insoumis seem to have reached an agreement. It will be signed today. Thé socialists are next.

For the calendar it is due to two things : dissolution in 1997 by Chirac created the need for the next législatives and présidentielle to be held the same year.

Then there was a referendum to shorten the presidential term from 7 to 5 years, the same number as the assemblée nationale. And Jospin decided to reverse the électoral calendar to have législatives after presidential.

There are lots of propositions of reforms of the constitution and the elections. I think simultaneity of presidential and legislative might be the one which is the least complicated but with the biggest impact (higher participation in the législative with possibilities of triangulaires notably)

[ilerda]

Will the breadth of this new coalition potentially cause it problems? Would a centrist ecologist voter or a third way social democrat be willing to vote for a radical left wing or communist candidate?

I understand the logic of trying to unify the 'left' to make sure as many make it to the second round as possible, but I can't help feeling sorry for those voters who end up being denied a candidate who actually represents their views.

It's also amusing when all the minor parties sign up in the hope of being allocated a seat or two and then riding to victory on the tailcoats of the much bigger and more popular parties that are leading the coalition.

[Georg Ebner]

May 3, 2022 4:57:15 GMT relique said:

Thank's for the thread and the map ! 

Thanks!
Being ineducated by speaking no French ("Every educated person has 2 homes: His FatherLand and France.") i had a guilty conScience, when establishing the thread,, but no one else was fitting and i had the map & OpinionPolls already uploaded.

[Georg Ebner]

May 3, 2022 11:16:49 GMT ilerda said:

Will the breadth of this new coalition potentially cause it problems? Would a centrist ecologist voter or a third way social democrat be willing to vote for a radical left wing or communist candidate?

I understand the logic of trying to unify the 'left' to make sure as many make it to the second round as possible, but I can't help feeling sorry for those voters who end up being denied a candidate who actually represents their views.

It's also amusing when all the minor parties sign up in the hope of being allocated a seat or two and then riding to victory on the tailcoats of the much bigger and more popular parties that are leading the coalition.

If we trust the OpinionPoll of IPSOS (s. above), over 90% of EELV-voters - but "only" 85% of Jadot-ones - would support it (at least abstractly).
No alliance would result in fatigue and terribly low TurnOut on the left.

[mattbewilson]

May 3, 2022 11:16:49 GMT ilerda said:

Will the breadth of this new coalition potentially cause it problems? Would a centrist ecologist voter or a third way social democrat be willing to vote for a radical left wing or communist candidate?

I understand the logic of trying to unify the 'left' to make sure as many make it to the second round as possible, but I can't help feeling sorry for those voters who end up being denied a candidate who actually represents their views.

It's also amusing when all the minor parties sign up in the hope of being allocated a seat or two and then riding to victory on the tailcoats of the much bigger and more popular parties that are leading the coalition.

it's quite common in France. Today is the anniversary of the Popular Front

[relique]

What I observe is that left wing voters in France are tired of the divisions among the left that they mostly don't understand.

Only political activists like me would not vote for a Green candidate even though I support a national alliance (although in my ideal World they would be excluded from the alliance)

[relique]

The first part of the agreement between Insoumis and socialists (70 constituencies for PS) has been finalised. There's still some work to be done on the political agreement and then PS will validate it (or not) in its national council

[ilerda]

Are the negotiations being done bilaterally with each party/bloc by LFI, or does every coalition partner get a say in allocating constituencies and deciding policy/strategy etc?

[relique]

May 4, 2022 12:29:06 GMT ilerda said:

Are the negotiations being done bilaterally with each party/bloc by LFI, or does every coalition partner get a say in allocating constituencies and deciding policy/strategy etc?

Mainly bilateral discussions, although after they were included, some Greens have attended the negociations with PS.

I'm waiting to know which are the 70 PS got to give you an early analysis of how many seats each partner can claim in june realistically.

PS will validate the deal tomorrow at 7pm

[relique]

With no in depth analysis, given the seats I was given by some unofficial sources, I'd say:

Greens: 12 - 32 seats
PCF: 10 - 15 seats
PS: 22 - 30 seats
Insoumis: 50 - 80 seats

Which would give the left:

94 - 157 seats

[Georg Ebner]

NDA won't join an alliance with the PSF, thus the Union Pop. should be complete now.
Getting less const. than TheGreens is an other humiliation for PS, of course. But contrary to EELV integrating them is not so important for LFI, i'd say.