French Legislative Elections 2022

[relique]

Among the 157 seats that could go left there are:
- 62 LREM and allies
- 5 LR and allies
- 2 RN

This would be enough to put LREM into a minority IF LR and RN keep their other seats (which will be very very hard for LR)

[Georg Ebner]

[relique]

To compensate for PS getting the Sarthe constituency, PCF got a Somme constituency

[johnloony]

How to shake up the French party political system a bit, or to solidify it into some sort of acceptable stable order (each according to preference, or whatever): have legislative assembly elections (and the Presidential election as well, for that matter) by FPTP instead of the grobutacular two-round system.

[mattbewilson]

May 4, 2022 16:36:19 GMT relique said:

With no in depth analysis, given the seats I was given by some unofficial sources, I'd say:

Greens: 12 - 32 seats
PCF: 10 - 15 seats
PS: 22 - 30 seats
Insoumis: 50 - 80 seats

Which would give the left:

94 - 157 seats

[edgbaston]

Is this true?

[stb12]

May 4, 2022 23:00:18 GMT edgbaston said:

Is this true?

From the wikipedia page about the French Prime Minister but seems a decent explanation:

The prime minister is appointed by the president of France, who is theoretically free to pick whomever he pleases for the post. In practice, because the National Assembly does have the power to force the resignation of the government by adopting a motion of censure, the choice of prime minister must reflect the will of the majority in the National Assembly. Notably, immediately after the legislative election of 1986, President François Mitterrand had to appoint Jacques Chirac as prime minister although Chirac was a member of the Rally for the Republic and therefore a political opponent of Mitterrand. While Mitterrand's Socialist Party was the largest party in the National Assembly, it did not have an absolute majority. The RPR had an alliance with the Union for French Democracy, which gave them a majority. Such a situation, in which the president is forced to work with a prime minister who is a political opponent, is called a cohabitation.

So the legislature seems to have a lot of power, the question just doesn't arise much because the President's party usually seems to win control.

[maxque]

May 4, 2022 23:00:18 GMT edgbaston said:

Is this true?

Yes. In the 1986-1988 cohabitation (Mitterand PS President; but Chirac RPR Prime Minister) and in the 1997-2002 one (Chirac RPR President and Jospin PS Prime Minister), the policy decision were taken by the Prime Minister, the President being only involved in Foreign Affairs and any, eventual, constitutionnal reforms (and also, the power to call early elections, that Mitterand used after being re-elected in 1988).

[Georg Ebner]

Ad NUPES: The constituencies (n.b. without the Diaspora-seats!), ranked by the perFormance of the left candidates in round I of the pres. elec. (ColourCode on the left is the current distribution: White=LFI; 50 darkRed=PCF; 70 red=PSF; 100 lightGreen=EELV&allies, of these 78 once again lightGreen=EELVproper, 9 darkGreen=Gen.ecol., 9 lila=Gen., 2 yellow=ED(PoleEcol.), 2 orange=ND):

[relique]

May 4, 2022 22:20:44 GMT mattbewilson said:

May 4, 2022 16:36:19 GMT relique said:

With no in depth analysis, given the seats I was given by some unofficial sources, I'd say:

Greens: 12 - 32 seats
PCF: 10 - 15 seats
PS: 22 - 30 seats
Insoumis: 50 - 80 seats

Which would give the left:

94 - 157 seats

I was giving my early prediction of seats won. Maybe I wasn't clear.

On the PM: the PM governs the nation's matters. The ministers council is the executive branch with ministers able to sign decrees (counter signed by the PM).

The president has indeed effectively conducted the nation's affairs when the PM was from the same political leaning.

The president appoints the PM but the national assembly has to give out its trust in the newly appointed government by a majority. And a majority of MP can vote and dissolve the government if they don't like its politics. The president has the power to dissolve the assembly (only more than one year after the previous élection).

In 1981, Mitterrand was elected as the first left wing president of thé 5th Republic. The national assembly was lastly elected 3 years before in 1978, and was a right-wing majority assembly. Once elected, he dissolved the assembly and provoked a New election that thé left won.

Five years later in 1986 the left Lost the législative élections and Mitterrand had to appoint a right wing PM. He chose Chirac.

In 1988, reelected, Mitterrand dissolved the national assembly and asked the citizens to give him a majority in parliament. Hé got one (although very very narrow) and appointed a socialist PM.

In 1993, once again the left Lost (it was a bloodbath) and Mitterrand appointed Baladur who said to Chirac :"I'll be PM and you'll be our candidate for president in 1995" Baladur ran anyway against Chirac but lost to him. As the assembly was already right wing, Chirac didn't dissolve and appointed his close lieutenant "the best among us" Juppé.

The next election was planned in 1998 but the huge social movement against Juppé gouvernement lead Chirac to dissolve one year early, thinking the left would not be ready for battle. It was a mistake and the left won, Chirac appointing Jospin, who he had beaten in 1995 and who lead the socialists into battle as the New PM.

The next législative election was then planned for Spring 2002 before the presidential. Jospin and Chirac agreed on a référendum to cut thé presidential term from 7 to 5 years (same number as national assembly) and Jospin decided to reverse the électoral calendar and have législative élections After the presidential instead of before.

After that, législative élections became much less of a battle as the defeated presidential candidates never had any appeal one month later and their voters not participating to the vote as much as the New président voters.

Sorry for the french spell check on my phone which really doesn't like me speaking english

[neilm]

May 4, 2022 23:00:18 GMT edgbaston said:

Is this true?

I don't think this is particularly weird. It might be to an American, like this chap, but there are lots of executive presidencies where the power of the office is curtailed, to varying levels, if he doesn't have a majority in the legislature. Including the US. They're utterly obsessed with the concept that the US approach is the general one.

[neilm]

Who is the ex-PM saying he'll leave?

[minionofmidas]

May 5, 2022 15:03:46 GMT neilm said:

Who is the ex-PM saying he'll leave?

Cazeneuve.

[neilm]

May 5, 2022 15:12:13 GMT minionofmidas said:

May 5, 2022 15:03:46 GMT neilm said:

Who is the ex-PM saying he'll leave?

Cazeneuve.

I thought it might be Ayrault, I'd forgotten about Cazeneuve. Is anyone bothered that the shortest serving PM of the Fifth Republic is threatening to leave the party?

[minionofmidas]

May 5, 2022 15:31:37 GMT neilm said:

May 5, 2022 15:12:13 GMT minionofmidas said:

Cazeneuve.

I thought it might be Ayrault, I'd forgotten about Cazeneuve. Is anyone bothered that the shortest serving PM of the Fifth Republic is threatening to leave the party?

He's already left.
I suppose people on the party right who were hoping to count on him as an ally in the future are bothered. Maybe residents of Cherbourg, too. Otherwise? Nobody.

[ilerda]

It seems like amongst the PS there’s a bit of a problem of their residual representation outstripping their current popular support. It’s kind of like what happened to UKIP here, and leads to people whose careers depend on the party still having to kick up a fuss and maintain their relevance.

[jamie]

Are the PS being given free-runs in the constituencies they currently hold or is their paltry national support leading to them getting even less than that?

[relique]

May 5, 2022 16:06:50 GMT jamie said:

Are the PS being given free-runs in the constituencies they currently hold or is their paltry national support leading to them getting even less than that?

25 incumbents, 70 constituencies. Do the mathd

[Peter Wilkinson]

May 5, 2022 4:12:37 GMT relique said:

I was giving my early prediction of seats won. Maybe I wasn't clear.

On the PM: the PM governs the nation's matters. The ministers council is the executive branch with ministers able to sign decrees (counter signed by the PM).

The president has indeed effectively conducted the nation's affairs when the PM was from the same political leaning.

The president appoints the PM but the national assembly has to give out its trust in the newly appointed government by a majority. And a majority of MP can vote and dissolve the government if they don't like its politics. The president has the power to dissolve the assembly (only more than one year after the previous élection).

In 1981, Mitterrand was elected as the first left wing president of thé 5th Republic. The national assembly was lastly elected 3 years before in 1978, and was a right-wing majority assembly. Once elected, he dissolved the assembly and provoked a New election that thé left won.

Five years later in 1986 the left Lost the législative élections and Mitterrand had to appoint a right wing PM. He chose Chirac.

In 1988, reelected, Mitterrand dissolved the national assembly and asked the citizens to give him a majority in parliament. Hé got one (although very very narrow) and appointed a socialist PM.

In 1993, once again the left Lost (it was a bloodbath) and Mitterrand appointed Baladur who said to Chirac :"I'll be PM and you'll be our candidate for president in 1995" Baladur ran anyway against Chirac but lost to him. As the assembly was already right wing, Chirac didn't dissolve and appointed his close lieutenant "the best among us" Juppé.

The next election was planned in 1998 but the huge social movement against Juppé gouvernement lead Chirac to dissolve one year early, thinking the left would not be ready for battle. It was a mistake and the left won, Chirac appointing Jospin, who he had beaten in 1995 and who lead the socialists into battle as the New PM.

The next législative election was then planned for Spring 2002 before the presidential. Jospin and Chirac agreed on a référendum to cut thé presidential term from 7 to 5 years (same number as national assembly) and Jospin decided to reverse the électoral calendar and have législative élections After the presidential instead of before.

After that, législative élections became much less of a battle as the defeated presidential candidates never had any appeal one month later and their voters not participating to the vote as much as the New président voters.

Sorry for the french spell check on my phone which really doesn't like me speaking english

One thing that interests me about this election is that, as your account rather suggests, all previous legislative elections in the Fifth Republic seem to have resulted in one of two situations - either the President's party (or coalition) has gained a majority or a coalition of opposition parties that has been sufficiently united to form a government and continue it for a full legislative term (or at least until the President has called a fresh election) has done so. But that has rather depended on the President being fairly clearly towards one side of the political spectrum and the opposition towards the other. What has never yet happened since 1958 - seeing that while Macron campaigned from the centre in 2017, he succeeded in getting a presidential majority in that year's legislative elections - is a situation where the President does not have a legislative majority but neither does any plausible opposition coalition.

Of course, currently, there seem to be no firm projections of what will happen in the elections. NUPES seems to resemble nothing so much as the Cartel des Gauches or the Popular Front, both of which managed to win elections in the Third Republic and pass some valuable legislation but with neither lasting even halfway into a legislative term - except that even the projections you have given suggest that while NUPES seems likely to win a significant number of seats, they will still not be enough to insist on dominating any incoming government. The far right will no doubt improve its position - but its candidates still look unlikely to win large numbers of seats in second-round contests. And while Macron's party (whatever it is now called) might just be able to take enough advantage of this to win another majority, that can't be regarded as more than mildly possible.

Most likely, I suppose, is that Macron's party gets enough seats for Macron to be able to insist on its leading the next government, but only by expanding its coalition beyond whatever it already has for the legislative elections. If so, Les Republicains seems to be the most likely possibility, but will it have enough seats? If not, who else? And how long will it last? Will there be further legislative elections next year?

(Of course, if Macron faces the possibility of such difficulties in forming a government, LePen - in the appalling alternative possibility of her winning - would have had even more such difficulties. Not that that would have been more than the thinnest and least adequate of silver linings in such a situation.)

[pepperminttea]

May 5, 2022 16:39:39 GMT relique said:

May 5, 2022 16:06:50 GMT jamie said:

Are the PS being given free-runs in the constituencies they currently hold or is their paltry national support leading to them getting even less than that?

25 incumbents, 70 constituencies. Do the mathd

I guess it depends if they are winnable constituencies or not. If they've been given lots of no hope ones then the deal isn't anywhere near as good for PS as it may seem... I don't know enough about French political geography to tell looking at the above map though. FI do seem to have ended up with a lot worst ones for the left though e.g. Hauts-de-Seine's 6th (Neuilly-sur-Seine) though perhaps as the largest party in the alliance they just took  a lot of the leftover, complete no-hope ones that nobody else wanted?