Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,798 
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 21, 2022 13:57:29 GMT
Albanese speaking - clearly a clown, who has even troubles to control his own supporters in the room...
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Post by johnloony on May 21, 2022 13:59:58 GMT
If Labor do make it to 76 then it will be Western Australia that’s bailed them out. Results there are very strong, whilst elsewhere they are pretty underwhelming. It looks as though Kristina Keneally may have lost the safe Western Sydney seat of Fowler which is quite funny. Liberal results in the cities are disastrous. There is still an outside chance that they could be wiped out in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide (likely they hold 1-3 in each), and be down to only a couple in Sydney. Why are Labor doing so much better in WA? Isolation from the rest of the world during Covid |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on May 21, 2022 14:03:15 GMT
Essentially the Morrison government's decision to use anti-environmentalism as a wedge-issue has backfired catastrophically and may well have cost it re-election. They've lost seats to the 'Teal Independents' (plus also Ryan and perhaps Brisbane to the Greens and a couple of other places - Higgins etc - to the ALP) in a much larger than anticipated backlash, while the issue hasn't resonated elsewhere in the hoped-for manner: it hasn't saved some of the vulnerable seats it was supposed to shore-up and it hasn't allowed for against-the-grain gains from the ALP. It's also interesting to note that those Central Queensland seats with such grossly inflated margins last time, while held of course, are seeing sharp swings back to the ALP and once again look like plausible targets in a good year for the party.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on May 21, 2022 14:40:31 GMT
On current projections, the Greens could win as many as 5 seats-they are already well ahead in Griffith and Ryan, and could also win Brisbane and Macnamara in addition to easily holding Melbourne. Brilliant  Richmond is also very close, and looks more possible than Macnamara. However, the Greens normally do pretty badly on postals, so I can’t see them winning either of those two. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 21, 2022 15:40:06 GMT
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London Lad
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Posts: 10,711
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Post by London Lad on May 21, 2022 16:34:39 GMT
Someones still sulking over a few submarines...
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 21, 2022 17:31:28 GMT
There will be 3-4 Independents from a coherent area (the wealthy [north]east of Sydney) alone - could become dangerous for the Liberals, if these established a liberal party. Listening to the results on the radio, I was pondering if the Amercian Right will be cheering the downfall of a "liberal" government.  |
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Post by matureleft on May 21, 2022 19:01:47 GMT
There will be 3-4 Independents from a coherent area (the wealthy [north]east of Sydney) alone - could become dangerous for the Liberals, if these established a liberal party. Listening to the results on the radio, I was pondering if the Amercian Right will be cheering the downfall of a "liberal" government.  And Trump would be raging at their electoral system! |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on May 21, 2022 19:03:07 GMT
Pretty dreadful primary vote for Labour and another polling failure for the industry...?
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on May 21, 2022 19:25:09 GMT
South Sydney fan replaces Cronulla fan as PM. One of the very few good points about Tony Abbott was his choice of footy team. Rabbitohs are a huge improvement on Sharks for an Aussie PM mind. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on May 21, 2022 19:28:49 GMT
Pretty dreadful primary vote for Labour and another polling failure for the industry...? No, polls have been fairly accurate. |
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Post by IceAgeComing on May 21, 2022 19:30:12 GMT
I mean the last three national polls were ALP on 53%, 53% and 51% and it looks like the ALP 2PP will be around 51.5% so while its low its within the MoE. The primary votes are more out but I think when the main successes are local Independents its much harder to poll so I'd give them that: the 2PP indicates that overall they weren't miles out. If Labor do make it to 76 then it will be Western Australia that’s bailed them out. Results there are very strong, whilst elsewhere they are pretty underwhelming. It looks as though Kristina Keneally may have lost the safe Western Sydney seat of Fowler which is quite funny. Liberal results in the cities are disastrous. There is still an outside chance that they could be wiped out in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide (likely they hold 1-3 in each), and be down to only a couple in Sydney. Why are Labor doing so much better in WA? The Western Australian ALP government was the most aggressive at trying to contain COVID in terms of closing state borders and the like and that resulted in things like lockdowns being a lot less prevalent in WA compared to other states and they've been rewarded for that: in the state election last March they got 59.9% of the primary vote and the 2PP was 69.7% ALP and while things have obviously faded since then and McGowan was not on the ballot which made things different there were clearly affects on the wider vote share that helped the ALP in the Federal Election this time. There's also the fact that the Liberals had done well in WA for a very long time and people had been expecting a reversion for a while: so a lot of this was stuff that was expected. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on May 21, 2022 19:36:03 GMT
Queensland has seen 2 ‘surprise’ Green gains. For background, Queensland is a major coal mining state and has seen significant controversy over new coal mining developments. The Liberals have sought to exploit the issue, which they did very successfully in 2019 (though it should be noted this was a broader cultural effect as the number of people working in the industry in small and they’re not exactly operating traditional pit villages). In response, Labor and particularly the state Labor government have bent over backwards to swear loyalty to foreign owned open cast coal mining. This has left an opening for the Greens to win over environmentally concerned voters in Brisbane which has no ties to the coal mining industry.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on May 21, 2022 19:44:05 GMT
And the Great Barrier Reef is rapidly disappearing up it's on backside which is bringing home the effects of climate change...
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Post by heslingtonian on May 21, 2022 19:54:01 GMT
Queensland does still appear to be the strongest state for the Liberal/National coalition. They've been absolutely walloped in Western Australia and Victoria in particular.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on May 21, 2022 19:57:16 GMT
May yet still end up as three: they seem more likely than Labor to be the party that beats the LNP in Brisbane, though it isn't quite certain yet.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 21, 2022 20:27:11 GMT
South Sydney fan replaces Cronulla fan as PM. One of the very few good points about Tony Abbott was his choice of footy team. Rabbitohs are a huge improvement on Sharks for an Aussie PM mind. No. No no no no. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on May 21, 2022 20:27:48 GMT
One of the very few good points about Tony Abbott was his choice of footy team. Rabbitohs are a huge improvement on Sharks for an Aussie PM mind. No. No no no no. No? |
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Post by aargauer on May 21, 2022 20:30:22 GMT
There was always going to be a lot liberal voters staying at home with the illiberal treatment of covid.
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 910
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Post by msc on May 21, 2022 20:30:56 GMT
No no no no, there's no limit? (I'll get my coat. ) |
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