The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,540
|
Post by The Bishop on May 12, 2022 12:30:56 GMT
No, polls can actually be wrong - indeed they arguably were in Oz last time. But for the ALP to lose now, they would have to be even more "wrong" than they were then.
|
|
|
Post by frankyank on May 12, 2022 15:49:18 GMT
It does feel, as a foreign observer, that despite the large polling lead Labor has, coverage of the election has been painting an exceedingly close election. A decent amount of coverage about the potential for neither major party/coalition getting a majority on its own and having to work with independents. It does seem like an overreaction to the polling miss of 2019, but if the polls are remotely close to the actual election this time, the result would hardly be a close election.
|
|
|
Post by pericles on May 12, 2022 22:42:45 GMT
It does feel, as a foreign observer, that despite the large polling lead Labor has, coverage of the election has been painting an exceedingly close election. A decent amount of coverage about the potential for neither major party/coalition getting a majority on its own and having to work with independents. It does seem like an overreaction to the polling miss of 2019, but if the polls are remotely close to the actual election this time, the result would hardly be a close election. It is weird but unsurprising, this has been seen in similar recent elections in the UK and US where there was a shocking polling error in the previous one. It is a closer election than the national popular vote suggests though, based on the margins from the notional 2019 results, Labor needs 51.8% of the popular vote to win an outright majority, and only slightly less to be guaranteed to be the largest party. It is hard to tell whether it will be easier or harder this time, especially with different states swinging by more or less.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 13, 2022 11:31:03 GMT
It does feel, as a foreign observer, that despite the large polling lead Labor has, coverage of the election has been painting an exceedingly close election. A decent amount of coverage about the potential for neither major party/coalition getting a majority on its own and having to work with independents. It does seem like an overreaction to the polling miss of 2019, but if the polls are remotely close to the actual election this time, the result would hardly be a close election. Tbf there is a decent reason for it to be painted as close which is that the current pendulum isn't very good for Labor - only a small number of absolute gimmes and even the large swing implied by the current polls is likely on most counts to only put them in the low 80s for seats. This would be a respectable win but not an absolute landslide, and is quite vulnerable to even a small move back towards the coalition. I do think a no majority situation is quite plausible for Labor, although a situation where they can't form a government at all looks unlikely at this juncture and that fact is certainly being underplayed in their media (not surprisingly, most of it is owned by Murdoch and they won't give up till the last). This is a consequence of the underlying results of the 2019 election being much worse then the topline seat counts, especially the blowout in Queensland which has put some historically Labor/bellwether seats well out of reach.
|
|
|
Post by elinorhelyn on May 13, 2022 11:33:29 GMT
Expect to see larger that average swings to Labor in place like the North Sydney suburbs.
|
|
|
Post by pericles on May 13, 2022 14:14:37 GMT
Expect to see larger that average swings to Labor in place like the North Sydney suburbs. Those places will vote for the teal independents which may be useful towards Labor forming a government but cannot help them reach a majority.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,707
|
Post by iain on May 19, 2022 23:11:52 GMT
|
|
|
Post by bluelabour on May 20, 2022 12:51:49 GMT
Australia's stupid naming system for seats make their elections difficult to follow. Clear geographic descriptions of the seats are hard to come by.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 20, 2022 13:20:43 GMT
OpinionPolls of this year: The 2 latest polls indicating a swingBack to Labor?
|
|
|
Post by jollyroger93 on May 20, 2022 19:32:43 GMT
What time does the Australian election night show begin? Assuming it's available to watch in the UK as usual. From around about 9am uk time, ABC live stream it 👌👌
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on May 20, 2022 19:34:52 GMT
What time does the Australian election night show begin? Assuming it's available to watch in the UK as usual. From around about 9am uk time, ABC live stream it 👌👌 Keep in mind that Australian election counts take much longer than British election counts so it is better to wait until later in the morning or the afternoon.
|
|
|
Post by dizz on May 20, 2022 20:10:19 GMT
From around about 9am uk time, ABC live stream it 👌👌 Keep in mind that Australian election counts take much longer than British election counts so it is better to wait until later in the morning or the afternoon. Disagree as the early indicators are the most fun. I watched 10 minutes of the start of the 2019 one and it was interesting just how far the result was different Enjoy:
|
|
|
Post by jollyroger93 on May 20, 2022 22:05:54 GMT
Do they usually have an exit poll in Australia? I can't remember. Yes channel 9 normally do one.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on May 21, 2022 6:10:35 GMT
It's Anthony Green Day.
I think the ALP will squeak it, but it's going to be a long count.
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on May 21, 2022 6:28:12 GMT
Tony Abbott loses his seat to an independent.
|
|
|
Post by willpower3 on May 21, 2022 7:52:10 GMT
At some point on Australian election nights, someone without a hint of irony says that turnout is high.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,707
|
Post by iain on May 21, 2022 9:13:28 GMT
Liberals look to be going well in Tasmania.
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on May 21, 2022 9:35:33 GMT
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on May 21, 2022 9:45:05 GMT
At some point on Australian election nights, someone without a hint of irony says that turnout is high. Despite compulsory voting there is still variation in turnout. Not everyone actually does show but most produce sufficient explanations.
|
|
|
Post by willpower3 on May 21, 2022 9:52:57 GMT
Three Portillo moments could occur on the present results - Frydenberg (Kooyong) and Dutton (Dickson) for the Liberals and Keneally (Fowler) for Labor.
|
|