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Post by markgoodair on Apr 10, 2022 7:23:12 GMT
Australia goes to the polls on 21st May.
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Post by connor on Apr 11, 2022 22:35:57 GMT
I doubt Morrison can mount a comeback now. Polling seems too big for him to climb over.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 12, 2022 11:17:33 GMT
I doubt Morrison can mount a comeback now. Polling seems too big for him to climb over. Yes, although Albanese does his best to help him... |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 12, 2022 17:01:37 GMT
It looks like the 'colourful' George Christensen, MP for Dawson (based on Mackay in north/central Queensland), has quit the LNP, and may defend his seat under the One Nation banner.
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 12, 2022 19:22:23 GMT
It looks like the 'colourful' George Christensen, MP for Dawson (based on Mackay in north/central Queensland), has quit the LNP, and may defend his seat under the One Nation banner. Too mad for Katter's lot. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 12, 2022 19:53:05 GMT
It looks like the 'colourful' George Christensen, MP for Dawson (based on Mackay in north/central Queensland), has quit the LNP, and may defend his seat under the One Nation banner. He will not stand a chance of winning or even making the last round. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Apr 13, 2022 15:24:20 GMT
It looks like the 'colourful' George Christensen, MP for Dawson (based on Mackay in north/central Queensland), has quit the LNP, and may defend his seat under the One Nation banner. He will not stand a chance of winning or even making the last round. I wouldn’t have been quite so sure of that, but we won’t find out anyway. Christensen will be an unwinnable third on the One Nation senate list. |
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Post by willpower3 on Apr 15, 2022 15:49:48 GMT
Is Hanson a cert to get back in the Senate?
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Post by connor on Apr 20, 2022 18:08:08 GMT
It's really concerning for the left that really in these recent elections, the only way of winning is to watch the incumbant right fall apart completely and just be less bad. Just staggers me to be honest.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,798
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 21, 2022 17:54:26 GMT
It's really concerning for the left that really in these recent elections, the only way of winning is to watch the incumbant right fall apart completely and just be less bad. Just staggers me to be honest. Considering the recent trend to a Culture-Catch Chatting-Classes vs. Working-Classes the Australians with their proleCult could indeed be difficult terrain for the left. Though this time Labor should - despite all fears about the economical situation - really win. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Apr 21, 2022 18:50:35 GMT
It's really concerning for the left that really in these recent elections, the only way of winning is to watch the incumbant right fall apart completely and just be less bad. Just staggers me to be honest. Is that not how most opposition parties of all ideologies win elections? |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 21, 2022 22:38:04 GMT
It seems Anthony Albanese has tested positive for COVID, so will have to isolate for a week.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Apr 21, 2022 22:49:26 GMT
It seems Anthony Albanese has tested positive for COVID, so will have to isolate for a week. Good news for Labor then. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Apr 21, 2022 23:11:51 GMT
It seems Anthony Albanese has tested positive for COVID, so will have to isolate for a week. Good news for Labor then. I’m sure he’ll still manage to start an argument in an empty room. |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Apr 21, 2022 23:27:39 GMT
Good news for Labor then. I’m sure he’ll still manage to start an argument in an empty room. If he does something stupid over the next week he can blame it on Covid. If he does something stupid in the following 3 weeks he can blame it on Long Covid. |
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 22, 2022 20:52:23 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on May 1, 2022 13:23:59 GMT
It's beginning to look like there may be a much bigger crossbench in the House of Representatives post-election: the Liberals are now often reporting concern in seats where they are up against 'teal' Independents such as Wentworth, North Sydney, Goldstein and Kooyong, and the Greens are now consistently polling a higher vote than the last couple of elections. That could see a couple of seats (e.g. Brisbane, Higgins) fall to them.
In terms of Coalition targets, they have interestingly started talking up McEwen, in the rural northern fringe of Melbourne, quite a lot. It has quite a decent Labour margin, but has acted as a sort of 'anti-bellwether' in recent elections. Other seats they are talking about are Gilmore, Greenway, Parramatta and Dobell in NSW and Lyons in Tasmania (though hopes in that one seem to be receding).
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on May 11, 2022 11:51:34 GMT
YouGov have released a big MRP similar to that done in the last couple of UK general elections. Unfortunately it's mostly paywalled, but it predicts a result of:
Labour - 80
Coalition - 63
Independent - 7
Green - 1
Labor gains from Coalition: Chisholm (VIC), Higgins (VIC), Brisbane (QLD), Reid (NSW), Robertson (NSW), Swan (WA), Pearce (WA), Bass (TAS), Boothby (SA)
Independent gains from Coalition: Kooyong (VIC), Goldstein (VIC)
Too close to call: Bennelong (NSW), Ryan (QLD), Longman (QLD), Sturt (SA), Corangamite (VIC), Lindsay (NSW)
Of those too close to call seats all would be Coalition losses to Labor, with the exception of Corangamite, which would be going the other way.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on May 11, 2022 13:37:21 GMT
YouGov have released a big MRP similar to that done in the last couple of UK general elections. Unfortunately it's mostly paywalled, but it predicts a result of: Labour - 80 Coalition - 63 Independent - 7 Green - 1 Labor gains from Coalition: Chisholm (VIC), Higgins (VIC), Brisbane (QLD), Reid (NSW), Robertson (NSW), Swan (WA), Pearce (WA), Bass (TAS), Boothby (SA) Independent gains from Coalition: Kooyong (VIC), Goldstein (VIC) Too close to call: Bennelong (NSW), Ryan (QLD), Longman (QLD), Sturt (SA), Corangamite (VIC), Lindsay (NSW) Of those too close to call seats all would be Coalition losses to Labor, with the exception of Corangamite, which would be going the other way. Link: www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2022/results |
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Post by johnloony on May 12, 2022 3:33:45 GMT
They're not wrong. If Labor loses the election, the opinion polls will be merely out of date. |
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