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Post by greenhert on May 21, 2022 20:55:58 GMT
Current state of play (counting seats in doubt, taking into account which parties are ahead in the "seats in doubt"):
Labor: 79
Liberal/National Coalition: 56
Green: 4
Others (including Independents): 12
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 21, 2022 21:06:06 GMT
I'm a Cronulla man. (Although my mother is a Queenslander) |
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Post by greenhert on May 21, 2022 21:17:01 GMT
In relation to the Greens' gain of the Griffith division, how often has an incumbent Australian MP finished third on 1st preference votes despite being renominated by their party? I know of no other Australian MPs besides Terri Butler who have suffered this indignity.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
Member is Online
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Post by Khunanup on May 21, 2022 22:34:33 GMT
I'm a Cronulla man. (Although my mother is a Queenslander) Boooooooo!!!!! |
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Post by ibnu on May 22, 2022 5:37:29 GMT
There was always going to be a lot liberal voters staying at home with the illiberal treatment of covid. Bro mandatory voting nobody stays home |
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Post by greenhert on May 22, 2022 7:40:48 GMT
The Liberals are now ahead on preference flows in Ryan, surprisingly, although the Greens remain clearly ahead in Brisbane and their gain of Griffith has basically been affirmed.
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Post by heslingtonian on May 22, 2022 7:58:53 GMT
Looks like Gilmore might be the only seat to go from Labor to Liberal although it's very close.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426 
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Post by iain on May 22, 2022 8:04:44 GMT
The Liberals are now ahead on preference flows in Ryan, surprisingly, although the Greens remain clearly ahead in Brisbane and their gain of Griffith has basically been affirmed. That’s because the AEC has started a new preference count between Labor and Green in Ryan. Currently the only votes (under 2000 of them) in the TPP calculation are a bunch of postals, and the Greens remain on track to pick up the seat. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 22, 2022 10:15:54 GMT
Now that is taking re-wilding too far. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 22, 2022 10:32:44 GMT
Looking likely that the ALP will end up with a tiny overall majority, but that will be safer than it looks given the opposition is more divided than has been customary.
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Post by mattbewilson on May 22, 2022 10:46:30 GMT
Looking likely that the ALP will end up with a tiny overall majority, but that will be safer than it looks given the opposition is more divided than has been customary. Guardian says Labor short by 3? |
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Post by matureleft on May 22, 2022 10:47:11 GMT
Australia has some history of active involvement in politics by sporting figures. However this election (for a rugby union fan) produces a real star. David Pocock, one of the great modern flankers, looks to have been elected as a senator in the ACT as an Independent on an environmental, anti-corruption ticket.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 22, 2022 10:48:20 GMT
Isn't that currently called seats?
(there are I think about 7 or 8 still in genuine doubt, and Labor appear favoured in at least half of them)
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on May 22, 2022 11:04:44 GMT
Not sure if this has been posted.
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Post by finsobruce on May 22, 2022 11:16:44 GMT
Not sure if this has been posted. Why Cuba? |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,367
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Post by stb12 on May 22, 2022 11:34:36 GMT
Could a change of leader a decent time before the election have saved the Coalition like it seemed to the last couple of times?
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Post by finsobruce on May 22, 2022 11:51:10 GMT
Could a change of leader a decent time before the election have saved the Coalition like it seemed to the last couple of times? Depends on who it would have been, but I think that judging by the results (and especially the losses to 'teal' independents) the government's time was up. |
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Post by greenhert on May 22, 2022 11:52:33 GMT
Could a change of leader a decent time before the election have saved the Coalition like it seemed to the last couple of times? Depends on who it would have been, but I think that judging by the results (and especially the losses to 'teal' independents) the government's time was up. Just as it will be for ours come 2024, despite two changes of PM (see also the Conservative governments of 1951-64). |
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Post by finsobruce on May 22, 2022 11:59:31 GMT
Depends on who it would have been, but I think that judging by the results (and especially the losses to 'teal' independents) the government's time was up. Just as it will be for ours come 2024, despite two changes of PM (see also the Conservative governments of 1951-64). We can but hope gh, we can but hope. |
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Post by IceAgeComing on May 22, 2022 12:00:03 GMT
There was always going to be a lot liberal voters staying at home with the illiberal treatment of covid. Even looking past the compulsory voting point and also the fact that a majority of votes cast in this election were do so before polling day so people clearly turned out: the results don’t indicate this at all. None of the anti-lockdown parties did much of anything, and in the state with the most aggressively anti-COVID state government you had a 10% swing towards the ALP. Mandatory preferences effectively forces everyone into either preferencing the ALP or the Coalition so in order for your analysis to be true without the fall in turnout (or a lot of invalid votes, which is unlikely and I think that would have been noticed on election night) those anti-lockdown people on the right consciously elected an ALP government who were the most vocal advocates of that policy and that seems wrong. I understand that it’s sometimes good to go into an election with a preconcived narrative but at least make sure that it makes sense! |
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