I mean the last three national polls were ALP on 53%, 53% and 51% and it looks like the ALP 2PP will be around 51.5% so while its low its within the MoE. The primary votes are more out but I think when the main successes are local Independents its much harder to poll so I'd give them that: the 2PP indicates that overall they weren't miles out.
If Labor do make it to 76 then it will be Western Australia that’s bailed them out. Results there are very strong, whilst elsewhere they are pretty underwhelming. It looks as though Kristina Keneally may have lost the safe Western Sydney seat of Fowler which is quite funny.
Liberal results in the cities are disastrous. There is still an outside chance that they could be wiped out in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide (likely they hold 1-3 in each), and be down to only a couple in Sydney.
Why are Labor doing so much better in WA?
The Western Australian ALP government was the most aggressive at trying to contain COVID in terms of closing state borders and the like and that resulted in things like lockdowns being a lot less prevalent in WA compared to other states and they've been rewarded for that: in the state election last March they got 59.9% of the primary vote and the 2PP was 69.7% ALP and while things have obviously faded since then and McGowan was not on the ballot which made things different there were clearly affects on the wider vote share that helped the ALP in the Federal Election this time. There's also the fact that the Liberals had done well in WA for a very long time and people had been expecting a reversion for a while: so a lot of this was stuff that was expected.
Queensland has seen 2 ‘surprise’ Green gains. For background, Queensland is a major coal mining state and has seen significant controversy over new coal mining developments. The Liberals have sought to exploit the issue, which they did very successfully in 2019 (though it should be noted this was a broader cultural effect as the number of people working in the industry in small and they’re not exactly operating traditional pit villages). In response, Labor and particularly the state Labor government have bent over backwards to swear loyalty to foreign owned open cast coal mining. This has left an opening for the Greens to win over environmentally concerned voters in Brisbane which has no ties to the coal mining industry.
And the Great Barrier Reef is rapidly disappearing up it's on backside which is bringing home the effects of climate change...
Sir Nicholas Soames on Leader of the House Jacob Rees Mogg : ‘an absolute fraud, a living example of what a moderately cut double-breasted suit and a decent tie can do with an ultra-posh voice and a bit of ginger stuck up his arse.’
In relation to the Greens' gain of the Griffith division, how often has an incumbent Australian MP finished third on 1st preference votes despite being renominated by their party? I know of no other Australian MPs besides Terri Butler who have suffered this indignity.
Brisbane is fascinating because the Liberals are about 10% ahead on first preferences but it's pretty obvious the winner will be either Labor or the Greens although at the moment no-one has any idea which of those two it will be.
The Liberals are now ahead on preference flows in Ryan, surprisingly, although the Greens remain clearly ahead in Brisbane and their gain of Griffith has basically been affirmed.
That’s because the AEC has started a new preference count between Labor and Green in Ryan. Currently the only votes (under 2000 of them) in the TPP calculation are a bunch of postals, and the Greens remain on track to pick up the seat.