carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on May 22, 2022 13:26:21 GMT
On a continent with staggering reserves of coal, to declare that you will be a green government is effectively announcing a plan for poverty. They will last one term and be booted out. But it may be long enough to become a republic. Or Western Australia may secede GOOD! |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on May 22, 2022 13:27:52 GMT
There was always going to be a lot liberal voters staying at home with the illiberal treatment of covid. How does that square with the thrashing the LNP received in WA? |
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Post by finsobruce on May 22, 2022 13:45:02 GMT
On a continent with staggering reserves of coal, to declare that you will be a green government is effectively announcing a plan for poverty. They will last one term and be booted out. But it may be long enough to become a republic. Or Western Australia may secede A lot will depend on whether Labor has to rely on the Greens and teal Independents.
Labor's manifesto had a commitment to coal and Albanese refused to commit to phasing it out or even to blocking the opening of new mines.
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Post by aargauer on May 22, 2022 13:47:02 GMT
There was always going to be a lot liberal voters staying at home with the illiberal treatment of covid. How does that square with the thrashing the LNP received in WA? I guess they liked being denied basic rights even after vaccination. Which is a seriously depressing thought. Morrison wasn't drinking the covid kool-aid enough! I think I've been influenced by the unrepresentative section of (expat) Australians I know who are horrified by their actions. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 22, 2022 13:47:50 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 22, 2022 15:53:53 GMT
On a continent with staggering reserves of coal, to declare that you will be a green government is effectively announcing a plan for poverty. They will last one term and be booted out. But it may be long enough to become a republic. Or Western Australia may secede A lot will depend on whether Labor has to rely on the Greens and teal Independents.
Labor's manifesto had a commitment to coal and Albanese refused to commit to phasing it out or even to blocking the opening of new mines.
On a continent with staggering reserves of sun, wind, and coasts (for tide), to declare that you will be a green government is effectively announcing a plan for rebooting and supercharging the economy. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 22, 2022 16:30:54 GMT
A lot will depend on whether Labor has to rely on the Greens and teal Independents.
Labor's manifesto had a commitment to coal and Albanese refused to commit to phasing it out or even to blocking the opening of new mines.
On a continent with staggering reserves of sun, wind, and coasts (for tide), to declare that you will be a green government is effectively announcing a plan for rebooting and supercharging the economy. How do they export that sun, wind and sea? |
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Post by finsobruce on May 22, 2022 16:49:43 GMT
A lot will depend on whether Labor has to rely on the Greens and teal Independents.
Labor's manifesto had a commitment to coal and Albanese refused to commit to phasing it out or even to blocking the opening of new mines.
On a continent with staggering reserves of sun, wind, and coasts (for tide), to declare that you will be a green government is effectively announcing a plan for rebooting and supercharging the economy. I like the idea of reserves of sun. And tide for that matter. We all have reserves of wind. 
But yes, the plan seems to be to massively expand one without declaring war on the other.
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Post by finsobruce on May 22, 2022 16:57:17 GMT
On a continent with staggering reserves of sun, wind, and coasts (for tide), to declare that you will be a green government is effectively announcing a plan for rebooting and supercharging the economy. How do they export that sun, wind and sea? Why do they need to 'export' it? |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on May 22, 2022 17:01:21 GMT
You can create a reserve of solar power using battery storage. Once you have power, however derived, it can be exported using undersea power cables. Whether Australia has any of those I do not know, but its technically possible.
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,839
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Post by myth11 on May 22, 2022 17:50:50 GMT
Isn't that currently called seats? (there are I think about 7 or 8 still in genuine doubt, and Labor appear favoured in at least half of them) And I just noticed the 7 seats unavailable I will go back to sleep. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 22, 2022 18:15:59 GMT
You can create a reserve of solar power using battery storage. Once you have power, however derived, it can be exported using undersea power cables. Whether Australia has any of those I do not know, but its technically possible. you can also phase out domestic coal use while still extracting coal for export (no idea whether Australia is already doing so, it is a very far away exotic country with not many people in it.) |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 22, 2022 19:16:32 GMT
As things stand at the moment, we have this interesting situation where the AEC (Australian Electoral Commission) have formally declared 0 out of 151 seats, whereas the media seem to have called 139 seats out of 151 and are still not sure whether Labor have a majority of not. Therefore I have just sent an e-mail to the AEC asking them to send me the situation where there is a 100% primary and two preferred count to see if I can make head or tail of the whole thing and was wondering if you would like me to post a summary of the situation when I get it?
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Post by IceAgeComing on May 22, 2022 21:19:14 GMT
The official declarations won't be for at least a week: the election night counts aren't official.
Here is how I believe the overall process works - there could be some slight detail issues:
ELECTION NIGHT: On the day votes and pre-polls (?) are counted indicatively at polling places. Primary votes are counted as well as a two-candidate preferred combination pre-selected by the Electoral Commission in advance. This is usually Labour vs Liberal/National but in three cornered contests or when there's a surprise independent challenge they might get it wrong and at that point they stop reporting the latter and just report primary votes. When they publish this data it is matched with previous election results which allows the media to do much more accurate comparisons with it at an earlier point than comparable elections; which is why most seats can be given away on 10% of votes cast. They also count the Senate above-the-line first preferences on the night but that's a whole new kettle of fish.
At this point there has not been an offiical count: this initial count is for the good of the media to ensure that there's not a massive delay between polling day and meaningful results. Postal votes aren't counted at this point because Australia allows people to vote by post up to election day so they need a few days for the last ones to come in.
FOLLOWING WEEKS: The votes are brought to a central location, and postals are counted and added to the above totals. First preferences are recounted alongwith another 2CP number (which will be based on the results of the election night count) and this is what gets reported after this point. Following that process there's an official distribution of preferences in the way you'd expect for AV (lowest candidate eliminated etc) however in Australia they always count to the last two candidates even in seats where the ALP get 70% first preference votes or whatever. At this point they also will do a pure two-party preferred count just between Labor and the Coalition even in seats where one of the two finished third or below: this is entirely for statistical purposes and is done as much to get a national two-party preferred number that reflects seats held by the Greens/Independents. The Senate ballots are also fully counted reflecting preferences and below the line votes, recording into the computer and when everything has been counted they press the button and that goes through the 300 stages or whatever that is needed for a million candidate STV election.
Following all of the above, the results are officially declared. However because of the amount of data that even ordinary people have access to (the live count; where the votes came from so accurate comparisons to last time, the 2CP numbers giving accurate estimates of the position etc means that we know very early (much earlier than in other countries where you don't have the like-for-like comparisons) who has won most seats and the close ones you can make a good guess in most of them. There's no need for 'official results' to 'make head or tail of the whole thing' - the numbers on the ABC websute come from the AEC and indiciate the outcome of the election.
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Post by greenhert on May 22, 2022 21:48:32 GMT
Why, when the UK has been able to competently verify results within 8 hours of polls closing for over a century, does this happen? Because many Australian electoral divisions are very large geographically (some are larger than the United Kingdom!) in addition to being sparsely populated, and postal votes in particular take ages to count, and additionally Australian electoral divisions have electorates of 105,000 on average compared to 72,000 for UK parliamentary constituencies, and are counted by Alternative Vote not First Past the Post. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 22, 2022 22:54:30 GMT
How do they export that sun, wind and sea? Why do they need to 'export' it? Most of Australia's coal extraction is for export. |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 22, 2022 23:43:36 GMT
Why, when the UK has been able to competently verify results within 8 hours of polls closing for over a century, does this happen? The UK is relatively unusual in front ending the process and requiring all ballot papers to be in the hands of local officials at the close of polls, then in turn rushing for a final declaration to the point that people get upset if the count is going to be held the next day (and launch silly campaigns that yield silly legislation to prevent that). A lot of other countries take longer to get to the absolute final results because the set-up is more accommodating for voters. Things like voting at any polling station or postal votes only having to be postmarked by polling day not received locally (remember not everywhere has universal daily collections & deliveries - in some parts the postie only comes once a week and empties the postbox before anyone can post a response to that delivery) or overseas voting at embassies right up to polling day or even the option for voters with uncertain registrations to submit a vote in an envelope to have things sorted out afterwards by proper officials (not just the irregular staff appointed to run polling stations) all enable more people to vote but at a cost of not having a final result on the night. The provisional results satisfy people in those countries and everyone's usually used to the wait for the formal outcome to not make a fuss. This is how some countries allow registration even on polling day at polling stations - it's not the case you can just turn up and register to cast an ordinary vote but instead your application gets processed afterwards with the envelope only opened when it's successful. So the next time some British politician goes off on one about how we should have such registration here see if they have even thought about this or if they're just blindly going off about what happens in some other country without understanding the full context. I remember Antony Green's comment about when he was in the BBC studio for the AV referendum results show and noticing just how long the count was taking given all the fuss about getting "quick" results in both the "Save Election Night" campaign and the referendum itself. |
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Post by David Ashforth on May 23, 2022 8:43:39 GMT
I've posted this in 'The History Thread' but I'll post it here as well.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on May 23, 2022 8:49:47 GMT
Why, when the UK has been able to competently verify results within 8 hours of polls closing for over a century, does this happen? The UK is relatively unusual in front ending the process and requiring all ballot papers to be in the hands of local officials at the close of polls, then in turn rushing for a final declaration to the point that people get upset if the count is going to be held the next day (and launch silly campaigns that yield silly legislation to prevent that). A lot of other countries take longer to get to the absolute final results because the set-up is more accommodating for voters. Things like voting at any polling station or postal votes only having to be postmarked by polling day not received locally (remember not everywhere has universal daily collections & deliveries - in some parts the postie only comes once a week and empties the postbox before anyone can post a response to that delivery) or overseas voting at embassies right up to polling day or even the option for voters with uncertain registrations to submit a vote in an envelope to have things sorted out afterwards by proper officials (not just the irregular staff appointed to run polling stations) all enable more people to vote but at a cost of not having a final result on the night. The provisional results satisfy people in those countries and everyone's usually used to the wait for the formal outcome to not make a fuss. This is how some countries allow registration even on polling day at polling stations - it's not the case you can just turn up and register to cast an ordinary vote but instead your application gets processed afterwards with the envelope only opened when it's successful. So the next time some British politician goes off on one about how we should have such registration here see if they have even thought about this or if they're just blindly going off about what happens in some other country without understanding the full context. I remember Antony Green's comment about when he was in the BBC studio for the AV referendum results show and noticing just how long the count was taking given all the fuss about getting "quick" results in both the "Save Election Night" campaign and the referendum itself. The difference between an intellectual rationalist view and that of pragmatic effectiveness. Britain treats elections as a sporting event and a bit of fun in staying up late and rushing to declare. And then the drama of an immediate clear out from No.10, if there is a change of lead party, with removal vans and tears and drama. Others start fresh next morning and look to calm considered accuracy over a few days or even longer. |
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Post by islington on May 23, 2022 9:54:43 GMT
There was always going to be a lot liberal voters staying at home with the illiberal treatment of covid. Bro mandatory voting nobody stays home If you really don't want to vote I believe it is allowed for you to turn up at the polling station and spoil your ballot (can someone confirm this?). |
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