maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,310 
|
Post by maxque on May 23, 2022 12:41:19 GMT
The UK is relatively unusual in front ending the process and requiring all ballot papers to be in the hands of local officials at the close of polls, then in turn rushing for a final declaration to the point that people get upset if the count is going to be held the next day (and launch silly campaigns that yield silly legislation to prevent that). A lot of other countries take longer to get to the absolute final results because the set-up is more accommodating for voters. Things like voting at any polling station or postal votes only having to be postmarked by polling day not received locally (remember not everywhere has universal daily collections & deliveries - in some parts the postie only comes once a week and empties the postbox before anyone can post a response to that delivery) or overseas voting at embassies right up to polling day or even the option for voters with uncertain registrations to submit a vote in an envelope to have things sorted out afterwards by proper officials (not just the irregular staff appointed to run polling stations) all enable more people to vote but at a cost of not having a final result on the night. The provisional results satisfy people in those countries and everyone's usually used to the wait for the formal outcome to not make a fuss. This is how some countries allow registration even on polling day at polling stations - it's not the case you can just turn up and register to cast an ordinary vote but instead your application gets processed afterwards with the envelope only opened when it's successful. So the next time some British politician goes off on one about how we should have such registration here see if they have even thought about this or if they're just blindly going off about what happens in some other country without understanding the full context. I remember Antony Green's comment about when he was in the BBC studio for the AV referendum results show and noticing just how long the count was taking given all the fuss about getting "quick" results in both the "Save Election Night" campaign and the referendum itself. The difference between an intellectual rationalist view and that of pragmatic effectiveness. Britain treats elections as a sporting event and a bit of fun in staying up late and rushing to declare. And then the drama of an immediate clear out from No.10, if there is a change of lead party, with removal vans and tears and drama.
Others start fresh next morning and look to calm considered accuracy over a few days or even longer. Well, Australia has that, Albanese already took office and swore in. |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on May 23, 2022 18:19:43 GMT
Bro mandatory voting nobody stays home If you really don't want to vote I believe it is allowed for you to turn up at the polling station and spoil your ballot (can someone confirm this?). Obviously - how could they stop you? Secret ballot. But turnout isn't actually 100%. You'll get a letter from the state asking you to explain yr absence. If you don't come up with sthg you'll be fined. Was 92% turnout last time. Another 5% of the electorate (5.5% of voters) cast invalid votes. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,831
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 23, 2022 18:25:11 GMT
The states' deViations from national average in Two-Party-PreFerence 1919-2019:  |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on May 23, 2022 19:34:02 GMT
Bro mandatory voting nobody stays home If you really don't want to vote I believe it is allowed for you to turn up at the polling station and spoil your ballot (can someone confirm this?). IIUC this varies across the nine jurisdictions but at the federal level the law strictly speaking requires you to cast a valid vote. Of course how you're supposed to be caught is another matter (though I guess if you made a big song & dance of it and film yourself spoiling the ballot paper there would be evidence) but if electronic voting ever comes in then the legal position raises the question of whether the programming will allow a spoil to be cast. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,380
|
Post by stb12 on May 23, 2022 20:15:54 GMT
Presumably because it’s clear only he can form a government |
|
ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
|
Post by ColinJ on May 23, 2022 20:30:57 GMT
From the figures it looks extremely likely that Macnamara and Richmond will be won by the ALP, bringing them to 75 seats. They are also marginally ahead in Lyons and only 55 votes behind the Libs in Deakin. I'm sure they will manage to form an administration with 75 or 76 members. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on May 23, 2022 20:47:17 GMT
Presumably because it’s clear only he can form a government and also because Morrison has already conceded defeat |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,310
|
Post by maxque on May 23, 2022 23:35:33 GMT
There is a important meeting with Modi, Biden and the Japanese PM on Tuesday about China, it was considered very important to not send someone who had lost there. |
|
ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
|
Post by ColinJ on May 24, 2022 14:08:51 GMT
From the figures it looks extremely likely that Macnamara and Richmond will be won by the ALP, bringing them to 75 seats. They are also marginally ahead in Lyons and only 55 votes behind the Libs in Deakin. I'm sure they will manage to form an administration with 75 or 76 members. Update: Follow the link and check out the Brisbane seat. ALP and Greens are neck and neck as to who will finish second for the privilege of beating the Libs. |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
|
Post by jamie on May 24, 2022 16:51:54 GMT
Quite a few commentators have noticed that Labor have got a large swing to them among Chinese voters (the opposite happened in 2019). More under the radar is that Labor seem to have lost further ground among socially conservative, working class immigrants, particularly in Melbourne. In a zero sum game this would be good news for Labor as they tend to inhabit Labor safe seats (case in point, the biggest swing to the Liberals happened in Labor’s safest seat). Nonetheless, something for Labor to watch out for should the trend continue, and raises questions for the Liberals who managed to uniquely alienate Chinese voters.
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,013
|
Post by Khunanup on May 24, 2022 18:25:35 GMT
From the figures it looks extremely likely that Macnamara and Richmond will be won by the ALP, bringing them to 75 seats. They are also marginally ahead in Lyons and only 55 votes behind the Libs in Deakin. I'm sure they will manage to form an administration with 75 or 76 members. Update: Follow the link and check out the Brisbane seat. ALP and Greens are neck and neck as to who will finish second for the privilege of beating the Libs. Labor are currently only 34 votes ahead of the Greens... |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
|
Post by iain on May 24, 2022 19:19:14 GMT
Quite a few commentators have noticed that Labor have got a large swing to them among Chinese voters (the opposite happened in 2019). More under the radar is that Labor seem to have lost further ground among socially conservative, working class immigrants, particularly in Melbourne. In a zero sum game this would be good news for Labor as they tend to inhabit Labor safe seats (case in point, the biggest swing to the Liberals happened in Labor’s safest seat). Nonetheless, something for Labor to watch out for should the trend continue, and raises questions for the Liberals who managed to uniquely alienate Chinese voters. The fact that the Liberals did so abysmally with Chinese voters is really quite funny, given that it almost certainly stems from Scott Morrison's cack-handed attempt to confect a policy difference between himself and Labor on security policy, something that was never particularly credible. Labor also seems to have done pretty badly with Aboriginal voters this time (albeit from a very high base). There were big swings in the mobile booths / Aboriginal communities in both Lingiari (admittedly with a retiring popular incumbent, but small towns like Alice Springs, which the Liberals hoped would hand them the seat, barely swung at all) and in Leichhardt. |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
|
Post by YL on May 24, 2022 19:37:09 GMT
Update: Follow the link and check out the Brisbane seat. ALP and Greens are neck and neck as to who will finish second for the privilege of beating the Libs. Labor are currently only 34 votes ahead of the Greens... ... and there are 1339 Animal Justice Party votes to transfer. (Also similar numbers of each of One Nation, United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats, but I imagine those will tend to favour the Coalition incumbent rather than either Labor or the Greens. IIRC the Aussie "Liberal Democrats" are libertarians.) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 24, 2022 21:25:13 GMT
Quite a few commentators have noticed that Labor have got a large swing to them among Chinese voters (the opposite happened in 2019). More under the radar is that Labor seem to have lost further ground among socially conservative, working class immigrants, particularly in Melbourne. In a zero sum game this would be good news for Labor as they tend to inhabit Labor safe seats (case in point, the biggest swing to the Liberals happened in Labor’s safest seat). Nonetheless, something for Labor to watch out for should the trend continue, and raises questions for the Liberals who managed to uniquely alienate Chinese voters. Considering the very tough language from the Morrison government over China I don't find that surprising. Perhaps immigrants who had wanted to escape Communist China should have been made to feel more welcome? I don't know. There is however a well-discussed residual patriotism amongst Chinese immigrants, and I can imagine some simply didn't like being told their country of birth is a threat to the world. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 24, 2022 21:32:59 GMT
I think it's more likely that ethnic Chinese Australians were worried that Morrison's hostility towards China would lead to worse treatment at the hands of both government and their fellow citizens of he won.
Not an entirely unreasonable fear given how these things tend to go when a group identifies a "common enemy"
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on May 24, 2022 21:38:46 GMT
Current running totals:
Labor 74
Liberal/National 56
Green 3
KAP 1
Centre Alliance 1
Independents 10
Seats still in doubt 6.
Hopefully it will all be finished by the end of this week.
|
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 24, 2022 22:49:37 GMT
There are religious fundies here in Aberdeenshire who refuse to vote, having already put their faith in higher authority I think they are loons, but as you would expect, not being a nasty little bigot like so many of you here, I respect their right to freedom of religious expression Compulsory voting is an abomination. According to a published enquiry between a religious person and the Victorian Electoral Commission, there is a provision at state elections for an elector not to vote on religious grounds, but not at state level in Victoria at least. Here is the text: "For your information, an elector may be excused for failing to vote at a specific election if they provide a sufficient excuse. Current Victorian legislation (Local Government Act 2020) does not specifically state that the holding of a religious belief that precludes an entitled elector from voting is a sufficient excuse. This differs from Federal legislation which contains a specific compulsory voting exemption based on religious grounds." Link here if you wish to read more: VEC response to elector |
|
|
|
Post by IceAgeComing on May 25, 2022 9:26:17 GMT
Labor are currently only 34 votes ahead of the Greens... ... and there are 1339 Animal Justice Party votes to transfer. (Also similar numbers of each of One Nation, United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats, but I imagine those will tend to favour the Coalition incumbent rather than either Labor or the Greens. IIRC the Aussie "Liberal Democrats" are libertarians.) although the Animal Justice Party preferenced Labor over the Greens: and while How to Vote cards aren't always followed and I don't know how many they gave out that may mean that there isn't a big Green boost there because of that. |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on May 25, 2022 9:39:56 GMT
There are religious fundies here in Aberdeenshire who refuse to vote, having already put their faith in higher authority I think they are loons, but as you would expect, not being a nasty little bigot like so many of you here, I respect their right to freedom of religious expression Compulsory voting is an abomination. Which sect do they belong to? I thought it was only Jehovah's Witnesses who did not vote specifically because of their religious beliefs. |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
|
Post by YL on May 25, 2022 9:45:50 GMT
... and there are 1339 Animal Justice Party votes to transfer. (Also similar numbers of each of One Nation, United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats, but I imagine those will tend to favour the Coalition incumbent rather than either Labor or the Greens. IIRC the Aussie "Liberal Democrats" are libertarians.) although the Animal Justice Party preferenced Labor over the Greens: and while How to Vote cards aren't always followed and I don't know how many they gave out that may mean that there isn't a big Green boost there because of that. In that case I imagine it's genuinely close. And Labor seem to have extended their first preference lead over the Greens, now nearly 500 votes, so maybe they are now favoured? EDIT: according to ABC the lower preferences are favouring the Greens and they currently estimate the Greens are ahead. |
|
