Australia Federal 2022 Election

[YL]

May 25, 2022 9:39:56 GMT greenhert said:

Which sect do they belong to? I thought it was only Jehovah's Witnesses who did not vote specifically because of their religious beliefs.

Christadelphians, maybe. Wikipedia has (though with a "citation needed")

Most Christadelphians do not vote in political elections, as they take direction from Romans 13:1–4, which they interpret as meaning that God puts into power those leaders He deems worthy. To vote for a candidate that does not win an election would be considered to vote against God's will. To avoid risk of such conflict, most Christadelphians abstain from voting.

and I remember being told something similar.

[The Bishop]

May 25, 2022 10:23:21 GMT @boogieeck said:

May 25, 2022 9:39:56 GMT greenhert said:

Which sect do they belong to? I thought it was only Jehovah's Witnesses who did not vote specifically because of their religious beliefs.

they are known locally as closed brethern. They educate their kids at home. They drove twenty miles to tell me they were praying for me to beat Salmond.

That would indeed have required divine intervention tbf

[mattbewilson]

May 25, 2022 10:23:21 GMT @boogieeck said:

May 25, 2022 9:39:56 GMT greenhert said:

Which sect do they belong to? I thought it was only Jehovah's Witnesses who did not vote specifically because of their religious beliefs.

they are known locally as closed brethern. They educate their kids at home. They drove twenty miles to tell me they were praying for me to beat Salmond.

if only prayers accounted for votes

[iain]

May 25, 2022 9:26:17 GMT IceAgeComing said:

May 24, 2022 19:37:09 GMT YL said:

... and there are 1339 Animal Justice Party votes to transfer.

(Also similar numbers of each of One Nation, United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats, but I imagine those will tend to favour the Coalition incumbent rather than either Labor or the Greens. IIRC the Aussie "Liberal Democrats" are libertarians.)

although the Animal Justice Party preferenced Labor over the Greens: and while How to Vote cards aren't always followed and I don't know how many they gave out that may mean that there isn't a big Green boost there because of that.

They are still expected to favour the Greens (very few minor party voters follow the how to vote). According to Kevin Bonham (very useful blog kevinbonham.blogspot.com/), scrutineering data shows that Labor probably need a 1.2% lead over the Greens before preferences.

[ColinJ]

Labour now on 75 seats according to ABC website. While we've been sleeping Lyons has been added to the ALP column following the discovery of an error at one of the counting sites boosted their lead. With Macnamara still 'Likely' for ALP that would bring the tally to 76 and a majority.

Three further seats in doubt, including the complex situation in Brisbane that I mentioned earlier.

[aargauer]

May 25, 2022 9:50:01 GMT YL said:

May 25, 2022 9:39:56 GMT greenhert said:

Which sect do they belong to? I thought it was only Jehovah's Witnesses who did not vote specifically because of their religious beliefs.

Christadelphians, maybe. Wikipedia has (though with a "citation needed")

Most Christadelphians do not vote in political elections, as they take direction from Romans 13:1–4, which they interpret as meaning that God puts into power those leaders He deems worthy. To vote for a candidate that does not win an election would be considered to vote against God's will. To avoid risk of such conflict, most Christadelphians abstain from voting.

and I remember being told something similar.

Yes, my grandmother is a Christadelphian and doesn't vote as she believes god will decide the winner.

Another of her weirder habits is referring to dead people as "being asleep" and death as "falling asleep".

[The Bishop]

It is now quite common to refer to stillborn babies as "born sleeping".

[myth11]

May 26, 2022 6:06:46 GMT ColinJ said:

Labour now on 75 seats according to ABC website. While we've been sleeping Lyons has been added to the ALP column following the discovery of an error at one of the counting sites boosted their lead. With Macnamara still 'Likely' for ALP that would bring the tally to 76 and a majority.

Three further seats in doubt, including the complex situation in Brisbane that I mentioned earlier.

ballots have until June 3rd to arrive so it may be a long wait.

[myth11]

Brisbane at the time of this post has over 18000 ballots that could arrive plus just over 9000 to count with labor ahead of greens by 72 votes.

[stb12]

May 26, 2022 12:46:25 GMT The Bishop said:

It is now quite common to refer to stillborn babies as "born sleeping".

And when a dog is getting put down it's pretty common place to say they've been 'put to sleep'

[iainbhx]

May 25, 2022 9:50:01 GMT YL said:

May 25, 2022 9:39:56 GMT greenhert said:

Which sect do they belong to? I thought it was only Jehovah's Witnesses who did not vote specifically because of their religious beliefs.

Christadelphians, maybe. Wikipedia has (though with a "citation needed")

Most Christadelphians do not vote in political elections, as they take direction from Romans 13:1–4, which they interpret as meaning that God puts into power those leaders He deems worthy. To vote for a candidate that does not win an election would be considered to vote against God's will. To avoid risk of such conflict, most Christadelphians abstain from voting.

and I remember being told something similar.

The Christadelphians were based just down the road on Shaftmoor Lane, that I believe has now gone and they use a PO Box at their care box on Sherbourne Road for correspondence now. They do not vote but they do like to know what's going on. I think it is fair to say that at least in the UK they are slowly dying out, their own official UK numbers are just over 8,000 people as of 2019.

[YL]

The AEC has done "three candidate preferred" (i.e. redistributing preferences of everyone except Labor, the Liberals and the Greens) counts in Brisbane and Macnamara: www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm

In Brisbane, the Greens appear to be ahead of Labor, so will win the seat; Macnamara is close three-way, but Labor are in the lead and should win on transfers unless they come third. Labor only need one of these for a majority.

[islington]

May 27, 2022 8:04:20 GMT YL said:

The AEC has done "three candidate preferred" (i.e. redistributing preferences of everyone except Labor, the Liberals and the Greens) counts in Brisbane and Macnamara: www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm

In Brisbane, the Greens appear to be ahead of Labor, so will win the seat; Macnamara is close three-way, but Labor are in the lead and should win on transfers unless they come third. Labor only need one of these for a majority.

Brisbane is a classic illustration of what's wrong with a voting system that rewards not who comes first but whoever avoids coming last.

Thus the eventual outcome rests on a desperate struggle between Labor and the Greens not to come last.

[iain]

May 27, 2022 8:48:50 GMT islington said:

May 27, 2022 8:04:20 GMT YL said:

The AEC has done "three candidate preferred" (i.e. redistributing preferences of everyone except Labor, the Liberals and the Greens) counts in Brisbane and Macnamara: www.aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm

In Brisbane, the Greens appear to be ahead of Labor, so will win the seat; Macnamara is close three-way, but Labor are in the lead and should win on transfers unless they come third. Labor only need one of these for a majority.

Brisbane is a classic illustration of what's wrong with a voting system that rewards not who comes first but whoever avoids coming last.

Thus the eventual outcome rests on a desperate struggle between Labor and the Greens not to come last.

Neither Labor nor the Greens will come last of the 7 candidates. This is an indicative 3 candidate preferred count.

The outcome rests on a party winning the support of 50% of voters. The Liberals have achieved this the last few elections in Brisbane, this time they are less popular than both Labor and the Greens. That they don't win the seat is entirely fair.

[European Lefty]

Do they publish the full preference transfers anywhere?

[timrollpickering]

May 27, 2022 11:24:33 GMT iain said:

May 27, 2022 8:48:50 GMT islington said:

Brisbane is a classic illustration of what's wrong with a voting system that rewards not who comes first but whoever avoids coming last.

Thus the eventual outcome rests on a desperate struggle between Labor and the Greens not to come last.

Neither Labor nor the Greens will come last of the 7 candidates. This is an indicative 3 candidate preferred count.

The outcome rests on a party winning the support of 50% of voters. The Liberals have achieved this the last few elections in Brisbane, this time they are less popular than both Labor and the Greens. That they don't win the seat is entirely fair.

And if the Liberal was excluded Labor would win the seat easily. By the same metric Labor is more popular than the Greens in Brisbane but the order of exclusion works differently.

[ibfc]

www.tallyroom.com.au/47851
Good post showing how badly the Coalition did in the inner cities.

[myth11]

One rule I just learned about this election is that you have to vote for everyone with the key line of
Every candidate must be numbered, otherwise the vote becomes "informal" (spoiled) and does not count.

[Georg Ebner]

May 27, 2022 16:33:11 GMT Andrew_S said:

May 27, 2022 16:21:17 GMT myth11 said:

One rule I just learned about this election is that you have to vote for everyone with the key line of
Every candidate must be numbered, otherwise the vote becomes "informal" (spoiled) and does not count.

It always amazes me that more votes aren't spoilt when you consider that if there are 10 candidates the voter only needs to make a slight mistake and the vote would be invalidated. But they must be used to it in Australia since it's been going for about 100 years.

Most simply give it up and choose "above the line", i e. the preFerences get distributed automatically by their favorite party's order.

[European Lefty]

Not in house elections