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Post by greenhert on Jan 8, 2022 16:38:06 GMT
It's currently two years and one month since the general election, and eight MPs have vacated their seats. Here's the total numbers for the first two years and one month in previous Parliaments: 2017: 5 2015: 11 (note this Parliament had already been dissolved by this time) 2010: 7 2005: 5 2001: 3 1997: 5 1992: 8 1987: 8 1983: 8 1979: 7 I make it 10 in the 2015 parliament: Gorton ended up being contested at the GE. Oldham West, Brightside, Ogmore, Tooting, Batley and Spen, Witney, Richmond Park, Sleaford and North Hykeham, Stoke Central, Copeland. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, actually. Not quite the same constituency. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jan 8, 2022 17:03:18 GMT
I make it 10 in the 2015 parliament: Gorton ended up being contested at the GE. Oldham West, Brightside, Ogmore, Tooting, Batley and Spen, Witney, Richmond Park, Sleaford and North Hykeham, Stoke Central, Copeland. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, actually. Not quite the same constituency. Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough, actually. I was aware of the error once I'd typed but chose not to correct it. I used to live in Southey Green so I'm well aware of the boundaries. |
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Post by batman on Jan 8, 2022 17:04:38 GMT
While we're talking boundaries, it's worth observing that the real 1979 election saw Labour win Erdington by a tiny margin, and the boundary changes in 1983 removed 8,000 mostly Labour voters in Nechells and Upper Witton which was more than enough to have eliminated that majority. There was clearly a swing to Labour in 1983 (as there was in many urban West Midlands seats). in some respects it was even more remarkable because the veteran Labour MP for the constituency, Julius Silverman, had retired after 38 years, so there was no incumbency factor to help Labour. It was probably the best Labour result anywhere in Britain although Gwyneth Dunwoody's survival in the new constituency of Crewe & Nantwich was also unexpected by many |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 8, 2022 17:58:23 GMT
While we're talking boundaries, it's worth observing that the real 1979 election saw Labour win Erdington by a tiny margin, and the boundary changes in 1983 removed 8,000 mostly Labour voters in Nechells and Upper Witton which was more than enough to have eliminated that majority. There was clearly a swing to Labour in 1983 (as there was in many urban West Midlands seats). in some respects it was even more remarkable because the veteran Labour MP for the constituency, Julius Silverman, had retired after 38 years, so there was no incumbency factor to help Labour. It was probably the best Labour result anywhere in Britain although Gwyneth Dunwoody's survival in the new constituency of Crewe & Nantwich was also unexpected by many Silverman may have had a negative incumbency factor. He was before my time, but I understand he was not popular by the end of his tenure. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 8, 2022 18:16:59 GMT
Silverman may have had a negative incumbency factor. He was before my time, but I understand he was not popular by the end of his tenure. He was a genuinely public spirited man, but he was not exactly a natural diplomat and held views on the role and responsibilities of MPs that were a little out of favour by the 1970s, even if they were the norm when he was first elected. His report into the Handsworth riots is interesting. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 8, 2022 18:27:07 GMT
For the record, this constituency contains 6 whole wards and about two thirds of another ward, The results in 2018 by ward were Castle Vale: Conservative win by 91 Erdington: Conservative win by 890 ( top vote) Gravelly Hill: Labour win by 941 Perry Common: Conservative win by 52 Pype Hayes: Labour win by 16 Stockland Green: Labour win by 1810( top vote) Kingstanding ( part in this constituency) Conservative win by 280 Every ward bar Erdington was won by Labour in 2019 |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 8, 2022 18:30:23 GMT
For the record, this constituency contains 6 whole wards and about two thirds of another ward, The results in 2018 by ward were Castle Vale: Conservative win by 91 Erdington: Conservative win by 890 ( top vote) Gravelly Hill: Labour win by 941 Perry Common: Conservative win by 52 Pype Hayes: Labour win by 16 Stockland Green: Labour win by 1810( top vote) Kingstanding ( part in this constituency) Conservative win by 280 Every ward bar Erdington was won by Labour in 2019 As there were no local elections in 2019 in Birmingham, how do you come to that conclusion? |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 8, 2022 18:31:56 GMT
Silverman may have had a negative incumbency factor. He was before my time, but I understand he was not popular by the end of his tenure. He was a genuinely public spirited man, but he was not exactly a natural diplomat and held views on the role and responsibilities of MPs that were a little out of favour by the 1970s, even if they were the norm when he was first elected. His report into the Handsworth riots is interesting. I think quite a few MP's didn't move with the times as MPs roles changed over the years. |
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Post by batman on Jan 8, 2022 18:59:36 GMT
Every ward bar Erdington was won by Labour in 2019 As there were no local elections in 2019 in Birmingham, how do you come to that conclusion? possibly an Electoral Calculus projection, or an application of common sense? It's fairly likely to be true given the result |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 8, 2022 19:11:37 GMT
As there were no local elections in 2019 in Birmingham, how do you come to that conclusion? possibly an Electoral Calculus projection, or an application of common sense? It's fairly likely to be true given the result 2019 would have counted by the old wards, not the new ones. It's certainly possible that Labour won three of the four old wards, but it's quite possible they won two. They will have won Stockland Green by a country mile. On the new wards, it's harder to judge, but I'd say the Tories won between zero and three of them. I ignore Electoral Calculus projections and I suggest other people do to. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 8, 2022 19:11:49 GMT
I think quite a few MP's didn't move with the times as MPs roles changed over the years. Amusing little extract from the Crossman Diaries, 'Maurice' here being, of course, fellow Coventry MP Maurice Edelman... The thing is that Edelman (when he wasn't writing pulp fiction novels...) was active as a representative for his constituency even if he was never actually there, as numerous other entries show. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 8, 2022 19:19:20 GMT
possibly an Electoral Calculus projection, or an application of common sense? It's fairly likely to be true given the result 2019 would have counted by the old wards, not the new ones. It's certainly possible that Labour won three of the four old wards, but it's quite possible they won two. They will have won Stockland Green by a country mile. On the new wards, it's harder to judge, but I'd say the Tories won between zero and three of them. I ignore Electoral Calculus projections and I suggest other people do to. Based on old wards and on common sense, Erdington ward went Labour in 2017 but back to Tory in '19. All other ward were Labour in '17 and '19, obviously to varying degrees. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 8, 2022 19:38:18 GMT
2019 would have counted by the old wards, not the new ones. It's certainly possible that Labour won three of the four old wards, but it's quite possible they won two. They will have won Stockland Green by a country mile. On the new wards, it's harder to judge, but I'd say the Tories won between zero and three of them. I ignore Electoral Calculus projections and I suggest other people do to. Based on old wards and on common sense, Erdington ward went Labour in 2017 but back to Tory in '19. All other ward were Labour in '17 and '19, obviously to varying degrees. So that's a no then. I suspect people who were at the count know the answer and I could probably find it out if I could be arsed but you'll find that the swing in the seat is mainly down to Labour losing votes to non-voting and some Con/Lab/Brx churn. The non-voting will mainly have been in Stockland Green and parts of Erdington ward if it followed the pattern across similar wards in the city. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 8, 2022 19:45:58 GMT
Based on old wards and on common sense, Erdington ward went Labour in 2017 but back to Tory in '19. All other ward were Labour in '17 and '19, obviously to varying degrees. So that's a no then. I suspect people who were at the count know the answer and I could probably find it out if I could be arsed but you'll find that the swing in the seat is mainly down to Labour losing votes to non-voting and some Con/Lab/Brx churn. The non-voting will mainly have been in Stockland Green and parts of Erdington ward if it followed the pattern across similar wards in the city. Labour won 58% of the vote in 2017. In what world would that mean Labour not winning in all wards. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 8, 2022 19:58:55 GMT
So that's a no then. I suspect people who were at the count know the answer and I could probably find it out if I could be arsed but you'll find that the swing in the seat is mainly down to Labour losing votes to non-voting and some Con/Lab/Brx churn. The non-voting will mainly have been in Stockland Green and parts of Erdington ward if it followed the pattern across similar wards in the city. Labour won 58% of the vote in 2017. In what world would that mean Labour not winning in all wards. We were talking about 2019. However, yes, there are voting patterns in this city where Labour could win 58% of the vote and not win all wards. Sometimes the vote can be very concentrated in Birmingham. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jan 10, 2022 17:07:41 GMT
I think quite a few MP's didn't move with the times as MPs roles changed over the years. Amusing little extract from the Crossman Diaries, 'Maurice' here being, of course, fellow Coventry MP Maurice Edelman... The thing is that Edelman (when he wasn't writing pulp fiction novels...) was active as a representative for his constituency even if he was never actually there, as numerous other entries show. I didn't realise Edelman was an MP - I have a first edition of his book The Fratricides (about Algeria in 1961/2) on my shelf, waiting to be read. It's signed to 'Bert' - I wonder if he was a political friend? |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Jan 10, 2022 20:42:48 GMT
Amusing little extract from the Crossman Diaries, 'Maurice' here being, of course, fellow Coventry MP Maurice Edelman... The thing is that Edelman (when he wasn't writing pulp fiction novels...) was active as a representative for his constituency even if he was never actually there, as numerous other entries show. I didn't realise Edelman was an MP - I have a first edition of his book The Fratricides (about Algeria in 1961/2) on my shelf, waiting to be read. It's signed to 'Bert' - I wonder if he was a political friend? MP 1945-1975 for various Coventry constituencies, the by-election after his death was won by Geoffrey Robinson, who held the seat until 2019. That's 74 years between the 2 of them. |
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Post by batman on Jan 11, 2022 8:06:21 GMT
Until the last election, both Bolsover & Coventry NW, plus their linear predecessors, had had only 2 postwar MPs. That now applies only to Huddersfield, and that will come to an end at the next election.
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 12, 2022 11:20:06 GMT
Until the last election, both Bolsover & Coventry NW, plus their linear predecessors, had had only 2 postwar MPs. That now applies only to Huddersfield, and that will come to an end at the next election. Ooh! That begs a point of order! It may be that on some hyper precise interpretation of "linear predecessor" your statement is correct. However Huddersfield was created in 1983 out of Huddersfield E and W, and has had only one MP so far. There was a previous Huddersfield seat in existence up to 1950, so presumably you are calling that a "linear predecessor". Your other point then breaks down since there are recently created seats such as York Outer that have no linear precedecessors and have been represented by only one MP. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 12, 2022 12:22:55 GMT
Until the last election, both Bolsover & Coventry NW, plus their linear predecessors, had had only 2 postwar MPs. That now applies only to Huddersfield, and that will come to an end at the next election. Ooh! That begs a point of order! It may be that on some hyper precise interpretation of "linear predecessor" your statement is correct. However Huddersfield was created in 1983 out of Huddersfield E and W, and has had only one MP so far. There was a previous Huddersfield seat in existence up to 1950, so presumably you are calling that a "linear predecessor". Your other point then breaks down since there are recently created seats such as York Outer that have no linear precedecessors and have been represented by only one MP. There are such seats (wherever a county gained a seat) but York Outer isn't technically one of them but the successor seat of Vale of York. |
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