Birmingham Erdington

[Chris from Brum]

It's being reported that Jack Dromey has died suddenly, age 73.  Condolences, obviously, to Harriet and their family.

[Clark]

I just created a thread on this too at the same time which I've now deleted so we go with this one

[woollyliberal]

Six months ago I would have said the Tories could take this. But Boris has put paid to that idea. Whoever Labour select will be the next MP.

Thinking about this from a local perspective, Bobbie Alden (leader of the Conservative group on the council) stood here for the last 4 elections. If he did go for it and win, that would create some disturbance in the council group ahead of all up elections in May. A couple of months ago, the Tories here were excited at the prospect of making gains and perhaps pushing the council into NOC. A by-election and the prospect of a leadership election muddies the waters somewhat.

[ricmk]

Sad news. RIP Jack Dromey and sympathies with Harriet Harman and family. I take no pleasure in posting the 2019 result:

Labour 50.3%
Conservative 40.1%
Brexit 4.1%
Lib Dem 3.7%
Green 1.8%

Will any Birmingham lawyers come forward to stand?

[mrsir]

Not sure the Liberal Democrats have ever come second in this constituency before? That should change.

[johng]

Very sad news. Rest in peace.

[Chris from Brum]

Jan 7, 2022 17:11:42 GMT woollyliberal said:

Six months ago I would have said the Tories could take this. But Boris has put paid to that idea. Whoever Labour select will be the next MP.

Thinking about this from a local perspective, Bobbie Alden (leader of the Conservative group on the council) stood here for the last 4 elections. If he did go for it and win, that would create some disturbance in the council group ahead of all up elections in May. A couple of months ago, the Tories here were excited at the prospect of making gains and perhaps pushing the council into NOC. A by-election and the prospect of a leadership election muddies the waters somewhat.

Labour could choose to delay the by-election until council election day, now that would force Bobby Alden to decide where his priorities lay, given that the Tories are claiming to expect to take control.

[iang]

Sad news. Everything I have heard suggests he was a well respected MP. Condolences to his family and to the Red Room

[Clark]

Not a typical Birmingham city seat with a significant minority non white vote. Heavy brexit voting seat as would be expecting in WWC area in the West Midlands. Tories got 40% here last time - I suspect that will be their high water mark here for a while.

[heslingtonian]

Perhaps another by-election for Neil Shastri-Hurst to stand in? RIP to Jack Dromey and sympathy to his family and friends.

[Chris from Brum]

Jan 7, 2022 18:08:51 GMT heslingtonian said:

Perhaps another by-election for Neil Shastri-Hurst to stand in? RIP to Jack Dromey and his family and friends.

I think it's only Jack himself that has passed away.

[LDCaerdydd]

Spoke in the Commons just over 24hr ago

www.theyworkforyou.com/whall/?id=2022-01-06a.109.0&s=speaker%3A24825#g128.0

A reminder as always that life is fragile and precious.

[LDCaerdydd]

Jan 7, 2022 18:08:51 GMT heslingtonian said:

Perhaps another by-election for Neil Shastri-Hurst to stand in?

Candidates tend not to go from a ‘safe’ seat to a no chance of winning seat.

[heslingtonian]

Guessing that Sion Simon won't fancy a comeback or be welcomed back if he did.

[johnloony]

I predict

Lab 13,200
Con 6,200
LD 2,600
Grn 700
Ref 500
Others 1,000

[iainbhx]

Jan 7, 2022 18:23:41 GMT greenhert said:

Jan 7, 2022 17:25:20 GMT mrsir said:

Not sure the Liberal Democrats have ever come second in this constituency before? That should change.

They never have, like in most of Birmingham.

Wrong as usual.

We've come second in Hodge Hill, Ladywood, Yardley, Sutton Coldfield, Perry Barr over the years. Thats half of Birmingham.

[Chris from Brum]

Jan 7, 2022 18:28:43 GMT iainbhx said:

Jan 7, 2022 18:23:41 GMT greenhert said:

They never have, like in most of Birmingham.

Wrong as usual.

We've come second in Hodge Hill, Ladywood, Yardley, Sutton Coldfield, Perry Barr over the years. Thats half of Birmingham.

Go back to 1983 and the Alliance came second in Edgbaston.

[iainbhx]

Jan 7, 2022 18:41:38 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Jan 7, 2022 18:28:43 GMT iainbhx said:

Wrong as usual.

We've come second in Hodge Hill, Ladywood, Yardley, Sutton Coldfield, Perry Barr over the years. Thats half of Birmingham.

Go back to 1983 and the Alliance came second in Edgbaston.

And the abolished Sparkbrook and Small Heath in 2001.

[london(ex)tory]

Do either ward or constituency figures exist from the Metro Mayor election in May 2021? I'm sure I saw some in 2017 at least for the Birmingham wards but I can't find anything online for 2021.

[jakegb]

Sincere condolences to Mr Dromey and his family. 

I could be a long way short...

I predict that Erdington will be similar to Bexley with a role reversal for the top two parties.
Labour should comfortably hold on (around 45 - 50%) of the vote), albeit on a much reduced turnout. 

The Tories will be on 25% to 30% of the vote, with Reform eating into their 2019 support (perhaps even saving their deposit). 
And the Lib Dems will have minimal support (like Hartlepool and Old Bexley and Sidcup). Lost deposit highly likely. 

Whilst the West Midlands swung very heavily towards the Tories, the demographics of this seat are challenging. According to the 2011 census, it is only around 70% - 75% white, with a growing Asian population (albeit relatively small by Birmingham standards). Northfield - the one Tory Birmingham gain - was more homogenous. 
And with Brexit a more distant memory, the Tories do not have the same traction here.