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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 8, 2022 13:14:56 GMT
Prediction Date for by election: 3 or 10 March or they'll push it to May
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 8, 2022 13:23:10 GMT
Well, we held Tyburn with a defector who I was on Housing Committee with. As well as Ann Holtom holding Tyburn, back in 1982 we won two seats in the All Ups in Kingsbury (Castle Vale), our third candidate was the late Ray Hassall who was later Councillor for Perry Barr and Lord Mayor. Any of you Birmingham Lib Dems remember Graham Gopsill? I campaigned with him in Droitwich, where he moved in the mid-80s. |
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Post by where2travel on Jan 8, 2022 13:35:13 GMT
One of three Birmingham constituencies in which every ward voted Leave in 2016 Out of curiosity, which were the other two? |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 8, 2022 13:46:08 GMT
One of three Birmingham constituencies in which every ward voted Leave in 2016 Out of curiosity, which were the other two? I'm guessing Northfield and Yardley |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jan 8, 2022 14:16:08 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2022 14:30:43 GMT
2019 swing against Labour here was actually on the low side compared to the rest of the west midlands metro area
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 8, 2022 14:44:30 GMT
2019 swing against Labour here was actually on the low side compared to the rest of the west midlands metro area In terms of Birmingham, back in 2010 the results in Northfield and Erdington were quite similar, Labour majorities of 2800 and 3300 respectively, and the two have behaved a bit differently since then. Although of course at that time Edgbaston was closer than either of them. That’s perhaps the context which has led to Robert Alden, the Conservative group leader, sticking with Erdington which contains his ward, whilst Gary Sambrook, who also sits for a ward that is mostly in the constituency, and who is presumably more ‘junior’ to Robert Alden contesting, and winning Northfield. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 8, 2022 14:49:18 GMT
For the record, this constituency contains 6 whole wards and about two thirds of another ward,
The results in 2018 by ward were
Castle Vale: Conservative win by 91
Erdington: Conservative win by 890 ( top vote)
Gravelly Hill: Labour win by 941
Perry Common: Conservative win by 52
Pype Hayes: Labour win by 16
Stockland Green: Labour win by 1810( top vote)
Kingstanding ( part in this constituency) Conservative win by 280
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Post by batman on Jan 8, 2022 15:16:51 GMT
As well as Ann Holtom holding Tyburn, back in 1982 we won two seats in the All Ups in Kingsbury (Castle Vale), our third candidate was the late Ray Hassall who was later Councillor for Perry Barr and Lord Mayor. Any of you Birmingham Lib Dems remember Graham Gopsill? I campaigned with him in Droitwich, where he moved in the mid-80s. I'm neither from Birmingham nor a Lib Dem but I remember him as a pretty perennial parliamentary candidate |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 8, 2022 15:37:03 GMT
For the record, this constituency contains 6 whole wards and about two thirds of another ward, The results in 2018 by ward were Castle Vale: Conservative win by 91 Erdington: Conservative win by 890 ( top vote) Gravelly Hill: Labour win by 941 Perry Common: Conservative win by 52 Pype Hayes: Labour win by 16 Stockland Green: Labour win by 1810( top vote) Kingstanding ( part in this constituency) Conservative win by 280 Proposed new boundaries would make that seat safer for Labour, by losing Kingstanding but gaining Asian-heavy Aston. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 8, 2022 15:41:50 GMT
While we're talking boundaries, it's worth observing that the real 1979 election saw Labour win Erdington by a tiny margin, and the boundary changes in 1983 removed 8,000 mostly Labour voters in Nechells and Upper Witton which was more than enough to have eliminated that majority. There was clearly a swing to Labour in 1983 (as there was in many urban West Midlands seats).
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jan 8, 2022 15:50:45 GMT
Between one thing and another we seem to be ending up with a lot more by-elections than recent parliaments, or am I estimating that wrong?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 8, 2022 15:58:39 GMT
Between one thing and another we seem to be ending up with a lot more by-elections than recent parliaments, or am I estimating that wrong? It's currently two years and one month since the general election, and eight MPs have vacated their seats. Here's the total numbers for the first two years and one month in previous Parliaments: 2017: 5 2015: 11 (note this Parliament had already been dissolved by this time) 2010: 7 2005: 5 2001: 3 1997: 5 1992: 8 1987: 8 1983: 8 1979: 7 |
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Post by neilm on Jan 8, 2022 16:02:27 GMT
Between one thing and another we seem to be ending up with a lot more by-elections than recent parliaments, or am I estimating that wrong? It's currently two years and one month since the general election, and eight MPs have vacated their seats. Here's the total numbers for the first two years and one month in previous Parliaments: 2017: 5 2015: 11 (note this Parliament had already been dissolved by this time) 2010: 7 2005: 5 2001: 3 1997: 5 1992: 8 1987: 8 1983: 8 1979: 7 I make it 10 in the 2015 parliament: Gorton ended up being contested at the GE. Oldham West, Brightside, Ogmore, Tooting, Batley and Spen, Witney, Richmond Park, Sleaford and North Hykeham, Stoke Central, Copeland. |
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Post by jakegb on Jan 8, 2022 16:03:47 GMT
Between one thing and another we seem to be ending up with a lot more by-elections than recent parliaments, or am I estimating that wrong? 2021 saw six by-elections, the most since 2016 (which in fact had seven). And indeed the majority of last year's by-elections can be considered high profile, either due to campaigns or the seats changing hands (in three cases). Airdrie and Shotts can be seen as the exception. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 8, 2022 16:10:10 GMT
While we're talking boundaries, it's worth observing that the real 1979 election saw Labour win Erdington by a tiny margin, and the boundary changes in 1983 removed 8,000 mostly Labour voters in Nechells and Upper Witton which was more than enough to have eliminated that majority. There was clearly a swing to Labour in 1983 (as there was in many urban West Midlands seats). The Almanac of British politics gave a notional Conservative majority of 1,400 |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 8, 2022 16:11:21 GMT
It's currently two years and one month since the general election, and eight MPs have vacated their seats. Here's the total numbers for the first two years and one month in previous Parliaments: 2015: 11 (note this Parliament had already been dissolved by this time) I make it 10 in the 2015 parliament: Gorton ended up being contested at the GE. Oldham West, Brightside, Ogmore, Tooting, Batley and Spen, Witney, Richmond Park, Sleaford and North Hykeham, Stoke Central, Copeland. That would make it an inaccurate comparison. Firstly, I'm counting not byelections held, but seats vacated. Second, the lack of a Gorton byelection was solely down to the Parliament having been dissolved. Had it not been, the Gorton byelection would already have taken place by this time in the Parliament. |
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Post by johnhemming on Jan 8, 2022 16:19:33 GMT
Any of you Birmingham Lib Dems remember Graham Gopsill? I campaigned with him in Droitwich, where he moved in the mid-80s. He had a unique approach to printing with an Offset litho which involved putting two colours of ink in the ink tray so that the top of the leaflet would be orange and the rest black. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 8, 2022 16:24:36 GMT
As well as Ann Holtom holding Tyburn, back in 1982 we won two seats in the All Ups in Kingsbury (Castle Vale), our third candidate was the late Ray Hassall who was later Councillor for Perry Barr and Lord Mayor. Any of you Birmingham Lib Dems remember Graham Gopsill? I campaigned with him in Droitwich, where he moved in the mid-80s. According to newspaper reports of the time he went on honeymoon during the 1983 campaign for Hodge Hill, returning two days after election day. *
In 1977 he described his own campaign in the Stetchford by-election as "a cock up from beginning to end". In 1988 he lead a team of locals to build old people's accommodation in Belize.
*His second marriage? As the newspapers in 1969 record him as a married father of two.
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Post by greenhert on Jan 8, 2022 16:36:57 GMT
Prediction Date for by election: 3 or 10 March or they'll push it to May 10th March seems likeliest. 5th May would be a rather long wait by the standards of parliamentary by-elections. |
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