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Post by nobodyimportant on Dec 17, 2021 17:45:30 GMT
Conservatives: 548 (42.35%) Labour: 387 (29.91%) Lib Dems: 359 (27.74%) That's actually a very encouraging result for Labour in a council that is one of the longest standing electoral deserts for them. Decent result, yes. But the fact that this is, as you say, "one of the longest standing electoral deserts" for Labour is reflected in the fact that this counts as a decent result in this ward, which is the single best ward for Labour in the whole council. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 17, 2021 17:51:00 GMT
The transfers are out for Argyll and Bute. The final count was quite close: First preferences: C 742 SNP 459 Irvine 418 MacIntyre 204 Top 3: C 786 Irvine 494 SNP 489 Final: C 805 Irvine 711 if everybody realized the sense of using up every preference (or every preference that might conceivably count), and if the preferences of those who didn't split anything like those of those who did, this would have been an easyish independent gain. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 17, 2021 18:26:15 GMT
Also note that the ward is in Reading West constituency, which is a marginal. Not for much longer, it's going to be flung into Mid Berks at the next set of changes and that will be an electoral desert for Labour. The Libs have got some serious work to do to get anywhere in that prospective constitiuency too, but at least they have some areas of real strength - Aldermaston, Burghfield & Mortimer, Theale and Tilehurst ward in Reading. But the Libs will be probably be distracted throwing the kitchen sink at the new Newbury in any case. it's too early to assume that the boundary changes are final at this stage. As things stand Labour need to work the wards in Reading West though they won't be sad if that seat loses Tory territory of course (unless even more Tory territory still is substituted for it) |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 17, 2021 20:04:30 GMT
That's actually a very encouraging result for Labour in a council that is one of the longest standing electoral deserts for them. Decent result, yes. But the fact that this is, as you say, "one of the longest standing electoral deserts" for Labour is reflected in the fact that this counts as a decent result in this ward, which is the single best ward for Labour in the whole council) I find this discussion all a bit odd. If there was any sense this ward would be in Reading borough (or even Reading city!) and not in West Berks, however the parliamentary constituencies are configured- that's why it's " the best Labour ward " in a largely rural district. Then, its a "decent result" for them when it has only just managed to hang on to second place , gaining some ground on the Tories but very nearly being overtaken by the Lib Dems. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 17, 2021 21:53:46 GMT
Well, YP, if the Tories were only that far ahead of Labour in that ward in a general election, the constituency would (on current boundaries) be a Labour gain. In fact, although this is on paper Labour's strongest ward in W Berks, it is likely that Martin Salter was basically level with the Tories in Theale ward in the 2001 general election, so in general elections it's quite possible that at least some of the time Theale is Labour's strongest ward in the district. He wouldn't have been far behind in the Tilehurst outer wards in 2001 either though.
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islington
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Post by islington on Dec 17, 2021 21:56:47 GMT
Not for much longer, it's going to be flung into Mid Berks at the next set of changes and that will be an electoral desert for Labour. The Libs have got some serious work to do to get anywhere in that prospective constitiuency too, but at least they have some areas of real strength - Aldermaston, Burghfield & Mortimer, Theale and Tilehurst ward in Reading. But the Libs will be probably be distracted throwing the kitchen sink at the new Newbury in any case. it's too early to assume that the boundary changes are final at this stage. As things stand Labour need to work the wards in Reading West though they won't be sad if that seat loses Tory territory of course (unless even more Tory territory still is substituted for it) I agree. Don't forget that at least one alternative plan for the West Berks area has been submitted to the BCE that preserves a recognizable version of Reading W, with one ward swap in Reading itself and otherwise losing only Theale ward. More generally, there is a tendency to treat the BCE proposals as being set in stone but if previous reviews are any guide, there are likely to be quite substantial changes. |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 18, 2021 9:39:00 GMT
Well, YP, if the Tories were only that far ahead of Labour in that ward in a general election, the constituency would (on current boundaries) be a Labour gain. In fact, although this is on paper Labour's strongest ward in W Berks, it is likely that Martin Salter was basically level with the Tories in Theale ward in the 2001 general election, so in general elections it's quite possible that at least some of the time Theale is Labour's strongest ward in the district. He wouldn't have been far behind in the Tilehurst outer wards in 2001 either though. I have to say I don't think a December local government by election tells us much, if anything at all, about the potential vote in a general election. The Tory vote this time was well down because they were disproportionately absent from this election, for all sorts of reasons we can all think of, while the Labour vote was pretty stable, and the Lib Dem vote was up rather more but not enough to make a real difference. The interesting question is of course what happens to those missing Tory votes in a general election- do they revert to the Tories, go to Labour, to the LibDems, some other party, or stay absent?My guess is a bit of all 5! |
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 18, 2021 10:38:16 GMT
No, I agree, I was just saying that Labour has had greater past success this century in Theale than in the Tilehurst wards, though only in general elections. The Lib Dem party workers in 2001 would have been flooding neighbouring Newbury, and perhaps they still would to a fair extent.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Dec 18, 2021 12:20:33 GMT
Not for much longer, it's going to be flung into Mid Berks at the next set of changes and that will be an electoral desert for Labour. The Libs have got some serious work to do to get anywhere in that prospective constitiuency too, but at least they have some areas of real strength - Aldermaston, Burghfield & Mortimer, Theale and Tilehurst ward in Reading. But the Libs will be probably be distracted throwing the kitchen sink at the new Newbury in any case. it's too early to assume that the boundary changes are final at this stage. As things stand Labour need to work the wards in Reading West though they won't be sad if that seat loses Tory territory of course (unless even more Tory territory still is substituted for it) Well, Reading is going to get 3 seats at the review anyway. All the other arrangements are much worse, all that needs to be done with this map is for the names to be changed in Berks anyway. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Dec 19, 2021 11:43:38 GMT
The transfers are out for Argyll and Bute. The final count was quite close: First preferences: C 742 SNP 459 Irvine 418 MacIntyre 204 Top 3: C 786 Irvine 494 SNP 489 Final: C 805 Irvine 711 if everybody realized the sense of using up every preference (or every preference that might conceivably count), and if the preferences of those who didn't split anything like those of those who did, this would have been an easyish independent gain. Yes. If I count correctly, the SNP had 489 stage 2 votes, all but thirty first preferences. Of these, 19 then transferred to the Tory, 217 to the independent and 253 - more then half - had no further preference. That's pretty remarkable perhaps. Maybe they all thought the SNP was bound to be in the first two? |
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Post by Rutlander on Dec 21, 2021 15:26:40 GMT
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 21, 2021 15:52:56 GMT
Probably some opportunists who thought they were stealing cash. |
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Post by listener on Dec 21, 2021 22:29:39 GMT
At last, I have received all the electorates from last Thursday.
Three turnouts over 30% - Telford and Wrekin (37.2%), Northumberland (34.5%) and West Lindsey (31.9%).
Four turnouts below 20% - Medway (18.1%), Middlesbrough (13.2%), Lichfield (12.5%) and Walsall (10.6%).
Walsall is the second lowest turnout since the elections on 6 May after Salford (Blackfriars and Trinity) (10.0%) on 4 November.
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iang
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Post by iang on Dec 21, 2021 23:06:56 GMT
Presumably the ultra low turn out in Walsall was because it was already known that if Labour held a safe seat the result would be void anyway. Not much of a motivation to go out and vote
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 22, 2021 8:55:33 GMT
At last, I have received all the electorates from last Thursday. Three turnouts over 30% - Telford and Wrekin (37.2%), Northumberland (34.5%) and West Lindsey (31.9%). Four turnouts below 20% - Medway (18.1%), Middlesbrough (13.2%), Lichfield (12.5%) and Walsall (10.6%). Walsall is the second lowest turnout since the elections on 6 May after Salford (Blackfriars and Trinity) (10.0%) on 4 November. Interesting and unexpected to see such a high turnout for a local by-election in working class Telford. |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 22, 2021 8:59:01 GMT
At last, I have received all the electorates from last Thursday. Three turnouts over 30% - Telford and Wrekin (37.2%), Northumberland (34.5%) and West Lindsey (31.9%). Four turnouts below 20% - Medway (18.1%), Middlesbrough (13.2%), Lichfield (12.5%) and Walsall (10.6%). Walsall is the second lowest turnout since the elections on 6 May after Salford (Blackfriars and Trinity) (10.0%) on 4 November. Interesting and unexpected to see such a high turnout for a local by-election in working class Telford. No the turnout in Telford was 26.26%; the figure of 37.2% was for the by-election in May. The council website is very confusing for these two elections. Also see my posting at the current end of 09 December elections, |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 22, 2021 12:30:56 GMT
Interesting and unexpected to see such a high turnout for a local by-election in working class Telford. No the turnout in Telford was 26.26%; the figure of 37.2% was for the by-election in May. The council website is very confusing for these two elections. Also see my posting at the current end of 09 December elections, that's still decent by these standards, actually. Wonder if there's a slight mobilization effect from the by-election elsewhere in Shropshire - are there data points from other council by-elections held on the same day as parliamentary byes nearby that cd confirm or else trash this idea? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 22, 2021 12:41:56 GMT
At last, I have received all the electorates from last Thursday. Three turnouts over 30% - Telford and Wrekin (37.2%), Northumberland (34.5%) and West Lindsey (31.9%). Four turnouts below 20% - Medway (18.1%), Middlesbrough (13.2%), Lichfield (12.5%) and Walsall (10.6%). Walsall is the second lowest turnout since the elections on 6 May after Salford (Blackfriars and Trinity) (10.0%) on 4 November. Of those the Walsall figure has already been explained, and the ward contested in Middlesbrough traditionally sees a very poor turnout. Amongst the three, Lichfield stands out as notably lower than you might expect. |
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Post by listener on Dec 24, 2021 2:11:50 GMT
Middle Englander - thanks for clarifying my confusion over the two Dawley and Aqueduct by-elections.
Unbelievably the elections office at Telford and Wrekin has managed to post the Declaration of Result of Poll for 6 May 2021 twice on their website. I have now written back to them, asking them to post the Declaration of Result of Poll for 16 December 2021.
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