Local Council by-elections 16th December 2021

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Dec 13, 2021 7:46:44 GMT cogload said:

Control of Northumberland depends on Hexham so I am told. Can anybody confirm this?

It makes a difference to whether the Conservatives have an overall majority, but it's unlikely they would be voted out of control were they to lose.

[andrewp]

The Labour candidate/ winner in Walsall this week did not resign from her job working for the council until after nominations closed

www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2021/12/06/labour-fiasco-election-candidate-unable-to-serve-as-councillor-after-rule-breach/

[maxque]

Dec 13, 2021 21:04:45 GMT andrewp said:

The Labour candidate/ winner in Walsall this week did not resign from her job working for the council until after nominations closed

www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2021/12/06/labour-fiasco-election-candidate-unable-to-serve-as-councillor-after-rule-breach/

Again, this is a ridiculous rule and it's telling more about the imcompetence of the various Westminster government who all failed to rewrite that piece of garbage not fit for purpose.

[greenhert]

Nov 22, 2021 16:24:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

ARGYLL & BUTE UA; Lomond North (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COLLINS, Paul (Conservative)
IRVINE, Mark (Independent)
MacINTYRE, Robert (Independent)
SMITH, Ken (SNP)

2017: Con 989; SNP 678; Ind 587, 407, 359; Lab 212; LD 133
2012: Ind 846, 358, 237, 129; Con 544; SNP 406; Lab 376
2007: Ind 794, 734, 616; SNP 557; Con 484; LD 395

Robert MacIntyre was independent councillor for the ward 2012-2017 (he was elected on transfers after getting 358 first preferences. In 2017 he increased his first preference vote to 359, but missed out). Ken Smith was the unsuccessful SNP candidate in 2012.

Current Council: SNP 11; Ind 10; Con 8; LD 5; Independence for Scotland 1; 1 vacancy



ASHFORD DC; Highfield (Con died)
Candidates:
BALL, Barry (Ashford Independent)
NILSSON, Dawnie (Green)
PAVLOU, Terry (Labour)
RANSLEY, James (Conservative)

2019: Con 290; Ashford Ind 201; Grn 132; LD 82

Barry Ball was the Ashford Independent candidate in 2019. They twice held the ward on old boundaries, before losing it first to the Lib Dems in 2007 and then to the Conservatives in 2015.

Current CouncIl: Con 24; Ashford Ind 11; Lab 6; Grn 3; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



BRIDGEND UA; Caerau (Lab died)
Candidates:
DAVIES, Chris (Independent)
DUGGAN, Kyle (Plaid Cymru)
DWYER, Thomas Joseph (Conservative)
LEWIS, Robert (Labour)

2017: Lab 829, 753, 753; Ind 575, 573, 339; PC 319
2012: Lab 1057, 1028, 764; Ind 756, 751
2008: Ind 992, 936; Lab 895, 822, 648
2004: Ind 911, 809; Lab 760, 633, 622; LD 229, 165

Kyle Duggan was the Plaid candidate here in 2017.

Current Council: Lab 24; Ind All 12 (10 Ind; 1 LD; 1 Propel); Con 7; Ind 5; LLynfi Independents 3; PC 2; 1 vacancy



HORSHAM DC; Roffey South (Con resigned)
Candidates:
ADCOCK, Claire (Green)
EVERETT, Daniel James (Labour)
RABY, Sam (Liberal Democrat)
TORN, Simon (Conservative)

2019: Con 561, 532; LD 553, 519; Lab 239, 225

Simon Torn is previous Conservative councillor for the ward (2011-2019) on old boundaries. Sam Raby stood for the Lib Dems in St Leonard’s Forest division (which contains part of this ward) in May.

Current Council: Con 31; LD 13; Grn 2; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



LICHFIELD DC; Armitage with Handsacre (Con resigned)
Candidates:
CROSS, Richard (Conservative)
PRITCHARD, Mark Geoffrey (Labour)

2019: Con 850; 799; 663; Lab 508
2015: Con 2017, 1917, 1828; Lab 1127, 1009, 1003; Ind 516

Mark Pritchard was the Labour candidate in Lichfield Rural West (which contains this ward) in May.

Current Council: Con 34; Lab 10; Ind 1; LD 1; 1 vacancy



MEDWAY UA; Rochester East (Lab died)

Candidates:
EDWARDS, Lauren Rae (Labour)
GRIFFIN, Brian John (Conservative)
HYDE, Bernard Edward (Green)
MANUEL, Sarah Louise (Liberal Democrat)

2019: Lab 1332, 1277; Con 542, 414; Grn 393; UKIP 329; LD 174
2015: Lab 1861, 1721; Con 1406, 1095; UKIP 1209, 1039; Grn 560; TUSC 98
2011: Lab 1570, 1531; Con 833, 649; Grn 255; LD 180, 98
2007: Lab 1482, 1460; Con 673, 652; Medway Ind 268; UKIP 232
2003: Lab 1050, 955; Con 682, 680; LD 241, 209; UKIP 94

Brian Griffin was the top Conservative candidate back in 2011 & 2007.

Current Council: Con 32; Lab 20; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



MIDDLESBROUGH UA; North Ormesby (MIG resigned)
Candidates:
BEADNALL, Val (Conservative)
GASCOIGNE, Nicky (Labour)
HORKAN, Mark (Independent)
JONES, Ian Godfrey Llewellyn (Liberal Democrat)

2019: Ind 371; Lab 142; Con 17
2015: Lab 389; Ind 314; Con 74

Current Council: Lab 18; Midd Ind Grp 11; Midd Ind Cllrs Ass 10; Ind 3; Con 3; 1 vacancy



NORTHUMBERLAND UA; Hexham East (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BALL, Stephen Anthony (Conservative)
FAIRLESS-AITKEN, Suzanne Holly (Liberal Democrat)
WHEELER, Jonathan Paul (Labour)
WILLISCROFT-FERRIS, Lee Christopher (Independent)

2021: Con 687; LD 557; Lab 323

Suzanne Fairless-Aitken was the Lib Dem candidate this May.

Current Council: Con 33; Lab 21; Ind Grp 4; LD 3; Non-Aligned 3; Grn 2; 1 vacancy
(So the Conservatives need to hold this to retain their majority on the council)



TELFORD & WREKIN UA; Dawley & Aqueduct (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BARNES, Kate Mary (Conservative)
SALTER, Catherine Anne (Liberal Democrat)
WENNINGTON, Bob (Labour)

May 21by: Lab 1310; Con 1192; LD 72
2019: Lab 1212, 1157, 1030; Con 748, 725, 571
2015: Lab 1820, 1630, 1492; Con 1609, 1232, 1099; UKIP 1168

The Conservative and Lib Dem candidates are both re-treads from May. Kate Barnes was also the top-placed Conservative in 2019. Steve Barnes (presumably related) was the Conservative councillor for the ward from 2015-2019 and the second placed Conservative in 2019.

Current Council: Lab 34; Con 14; LD 4; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



WALSALL MBC; Pleck (Lab died)
Candidates:
CHEEMA, Simran Kaur (Labour)
SAGHIR, Mohammed (Conservative)

2021: Lab 2310; Con 778
2019: Lab 2123; Con 582
2018: Lab 2453; Con 609
2016: Lab 2596; Con 1062
2015: Lab 3493; Con 1436; Grn 547
2014: Lab 1959; Con 983; UKIP 590; LD 259; Ind 193
2012: Lab 2137; Con 878; Ind 220; LD 215
2011: Lab 2449; Con 767; Ind 475; LD 331; Dem Lab 166
2010: Lab 2340; Con 1790; LD 810; UKIP 383; Ind 348
2008: Lab 1241; Con 1150; LD 709; Ind 203; UKIP 177
2007: Con 1533; Lab 1497; LD 452; UKIP 202; Dem Lab 58
2006: Lab 1324; Con 1202; LD 555; Ind 488; Dem Lab 92
2004: Lab 1518, 1308, 1235; Con 1338, 1183, 1101; Ind 800; Dem Soc All 371

The deceased councillor was last elected in 2018, meaning this seat will be up again next May.

Current Council: Con 37; Lab 20; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



WEST BERKSHIRE UA; Tilehurst South & Holybrook (Con died)
Candidates:
BOWN, Steve (Liberal Democrat)
CROAL, Charles Spalding (Labour)
OLOKO, Akinbiyi (Conservative)

2019: Con 910, 865; Lab 395, 367; LD 266, 206

Charles Croal was the top Labour candidate in 2019

Current council: Con 23; LD 16; Grn 3; 1 vacancy


WEST LINDSEY DC; Nettleham (Ind elected as Con resigned)
Candidates:
LORYMAN, Benjamin Jeffrey Leigh (Green)
McGUIRE, Jess (Labour)
OLIVER, Jaime Emma (Liberal Democrat)
PALMER, Maureen Florence (Conservative)

2019: Con 635, 506; LD 632, 580
2015: Con 1337, 984; LD 1064, 983

Maureen Palmer was the unsuccessful Conservative in 2015. Benjamin Loryman stood for the Greens in Nettleham & Saxilby division in May.

Current Council: Con 17; LD 12; Gainsborough Inds 2; Lincs Ind 2; Ind 2; 1 vacancy
(Current Administration: Con, Gainsborough Inds and 1 of the other Independents). A Conservative victory here would give them exactly half the seats.

Re: Northumberland by-election: Lee Willscroft-Ferris was the Green Party parliamentary candidate for Hexham in 2015. When did he leave the Green Party? I wonder.

[finsobruce]

Dec 13, 2021 21:56:08 GMT greenhert said:

Nov 22, 2021 16:24:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

NORTHUMBERLAND UA; Hexham East (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BALL, Stephen Anthony (Conservative)
FAIRLESS-AITKEN, Suzanne Holly (Liberal Democrat)
WHEELER, Jonathan Paul (Labour)
WILLISCROFT-FERRIS, Lee Christopher (Independent)

2021: Con 687; LD 557; Lab 323

Suzanne Fairless-Aitken was the Lib Dem candidate this May.

Current Council: Con 33; Lab 21; Ind Grp 4; LD 3; Non-Aligned 3; Grn 2; 1 vacancy
(So the Conservatives need to hold this to retain their majority on the council)

Re: Northumberland by-election: Lee Willscroft-Ferris was the Green Party parliamentary candidate for Hexham in 2015. When did he leave the Green Party? I wonder.

He's surprisingly elusive online. Nothing much since 2016/17 when he was standing for internal office in the Green party and writing lots of LBTQ articles in various places.

[iang]

Dec 13, 2021 21:04:45 GMT andrewp said:

The Labour candidate/ winner in Walsall this week did not resign from her job working for the council until after nominations closed

www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2021/12/06/labour-fiasco-election-candidate-unable-to-serve-as-councillor-after-rule-breach/

So what does this mean in practice? The by election will go ahead and she won't be able to take her seat if she wins? What next? Is it re-run?

[michaelarden]

Dec 13, 2021 22:13:37 GMT iang said:

Dec 13, 2021 21:04:45 GMT andrewp said:

The Labour candidate/ winner in Walsall this week did not resign from her job working for the council until after nominations closed

www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2021/12/06/labour-fiasco-election-candidate-unable-to-serve-as-councillor-after-rule-breach/

So what does this mean in practice? The by election will go ahead and she won't be able to take her seat if she wins? What next? Is it re-run?

I assume she would be disqualified on election causing a by election which wouldn't be held due to the six month rule...

[andrew111]

Dec 13, 2021 21:22:45 GMT maxque said:

Dec 13, 2021 21:04:45 GMT andrewp said:

The Labour candidate/ winner in Walsall this week did not resign from her job working for the council until after nominations closed

www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2021/12/06/labour-fiasco-election-candidate-unable-to-serve-as-councillor-after-rule-breach/

Again, this is a ridiculous rule and it's telling more about the imcompetence of the various Westminster government who all failed to rewrite that piece of garbage not fit for purpose.

It is indeed a ridiculous rule (but rules are rules...)

[andrewp]

Dec 13, 2021 22:13:37 GMT iang said:

Dec 13, 2021 21:04:45 GMT andrewp said:

The Labour candidate/ winner in Walsall this week did not resign from her job working for the council until after nominations closed

www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2021/12/06/labour-fiasco-election-candidate-unable-to-serve-as-councillor-after-rule-breach/

So what does this mean in practice? The by election will go ahead and she won't be able to take her seat if she wins? What next? Is it re-run?

Others might correct me, but I think yes and yes. It goes ahead, and if she wins then it’s rerun.  A new election with Quite possibly the same candidates.

[jm]

The by-election in Nettleham, West Lindsey is being held due to the resignation of the former council leader, Giles McNeill who has subsequently been jailed for 14 months for fraud offences. According to the BBC he stole £30,000 from the local Conservative association to fund a 'gambling addiction'.

This ward was a split Con/LD ward in 2019 and also in 2015 so I think a LD gain here is a strong possibility considering the local circumstances and the events of the past two weeks nationally.

[michaelarden]

Dec 13, 2021 22:37:39 GMT andrewp said:

Dec 13, 2021 22:13:37 GMT iang said:

So what does this mean in practice? The by election will go ahead and she won't be able to take her seat if she wins? What next? Is it re-run?

Others might correct me, but I think yes and yes. It goes ahead, and if she wins then it’s rerun.  A new election with Quite possibly the same candidates.

I think the seat is due to be contested in May and therefore the six month rule will now apply.

[carlton43]

Dec 13, 2021 21:22:45 GMT maxque said:

Dec 13, 2021 21:04:45 GMT andrewp said:

The Labour candidate/ winner in Walsall this week did not resign from her job working for the council until after nominations closed

www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2021/12/06/labour-fiasco-election-candidate-unable-to-serve-as-councillor-after-rule-breach/

Again, this is a ridiculous rule and it's telling more about the imcompetence of the various Westminster government who all failed to rewrite that piece of garbage not fit for purpose.

On the contrary, it shows the incompetence of the party, the agent and the candidate.  The law is the law and it is what it is and it is a well known fact.  Resign first and submit candidature afterwards when not in a state of disqualification.  What on earth could be simpler?

[phil156]

They all counting on Thursday except
HORSHAM - Roffey South which is at 10am Friday

Why Horsham is different don't ask me

[bjornhattan]

Dec 14, 2021 15:27:25 GMT phil156 said:

They all counting on Thursday except
HORSHAM - Roffey South which is at 10am Friday

Why Horsham is different don't ask me

They wunt be druv.

[phil156]

Dec 14, 2021 15:52:12 GMT bjornhattan said:

Dec 14, 2021 15:27:25 GMT phil156 said:

They all counting on Thursday except
HORSHAM - Roffey South which is at 10am Friday

Why Horsham is different don't ask me

They wunt be druv.

I always smile at this at least it's a good excuse, they can all go to the pub at 12

[jamesdoyle]

Importance Index for this week:

	Con	Lab	LDm	Grn	SNP	PC
Argyll & Bute (Lomond North)	37	8	6		27
Ashford (Highfield)	100	26	32	38
Bridgend (Caerau)	7	58				8
Horsham (Roffey South)	46	16	43	5
Lichfield (Armitage with Handsacre)	55	23
Medway (Rochester East)	21	59	11	15
Middlesbrough (North Ormesby)	6	27	5
Northumberland (Hexham East)	100	39	46
Telford & Wrekin (Dawley & Aqueduct)	23	55	5
Walsall (Pleck)	17	56
West Berkshire (Tilehurst South & Holybrook)	100	37	35
West Lindsey (Nettleham)	59	39	29	14
Average	48	37	24	18	27	8
Total	571	444	212	71	27	8

Big weeks for Con and Lab, and (relatively) LibDem too.


Please note:
1. This is not a predictive index; it is attempting to assess how each party might view the importance of each seat; where, if they had the choice, they might target their efforts.
2. It is based on the strength of control (if any) of the largest party on the council, the strength of the respective party, and the vote shaer at the last election. Other criteria may be available or applicable.
3. Ratings range from 0-100.

[Tony Otim]

Dec 13, 2021 21:56:08 GMT greenhert said:

Nov 22, 2021 16:24:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

Re: Northumberland by-election: Lee Willscroft-Ferris was the Green Party parliamentary candidate for Hexham in 2015. When did he leave the Green Party? I wonder.

I don't know but there seems to be a certain amount of backing him by the local Greens:

tynedalegreenparty.org/?p=19471

[John Chanin]

Dec 14, 2021 14:44:43 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 13, 2021 21:22:45 GMT maxque said:

Again, this is a ridiculous rule and it's telling more about the imcompetence of the various Westminster government who all failed to rewrite that piece of garbage not fit for purpose.

On the contrary, it shows the incompetence of the party, the agent and the candidate.  The law is the law and it is what it is and it is a well known fact.  Resign first and submit candidature afterwards when not in a state of disqualification.  What on earth could be simpler?

It’s obviously the agent’s fault for not checking, but it is perfectly reasonable to have assumed that so long as she was not a council employee when the election took place there wasn’t a problem. Also there was probably a notice period she was required to give, which might well have been a problem at a by-election which was called quickly.

A work colleague of mine resigned to stand for council, which I thought was brave.  No pay and no certainty of victory, or indeed another job, since you can’t live on councillor allowances.

[iang]

But AFAIK, it's always been from nominations rather than from election. I recall a well known example (as control of the council ended up hanging on it) in Tower Hamlets where a Liberal candidate proved ineligible as she was not 21 at nomination even though she was at the time of the election. (She won the subsequent by election)

[batman]

Dec 15, 2021 21:43:01 GMT iang said:

But AFAIK, it's always been from nominations rather than from election. I recall a well known example (as control of the council ended up hanging on it) in Tower Hamlets where a Liberal candidate proved ineligible as she was not 21 at nomination even though she was at the time of the election. (She won the subsequent by election)

indeed, I worked in that by-election & met Peter Shore, then the local MP, in the committee room. She was called Belinda Knowles & I think she deliberately used her physical attractiveness to gain votes to some extent