cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,599 
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Post by cibwr on Jul 21, 2024 19:34:07 GMT
unless there is a 2/3 majority to change to stv and adopt constituencies that each have between 5 - 7 seats and are based on local government units we are likely to have only minor changes to the map. My money - reading the rules suggests the pairings I have suggested. Which tries to keep Swansea/Gower, Cardiff and newport not divided. Which means that Brecon and Monmouth are a natural pair.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 22, 2024 15:37:53 GMT
If the aim were just to draw 16 constituencies with equal population, then a few groupings obviously suggest themselves: - Two seats for Dyfed - one for Carmarthenshire, one for Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion
- Two seats for Cardiff and Penarth
- Four seats for North Wales and Montgomeryshire
In the latter case, there are two basic options. The first is to have one seat made up of Anglesey and Gwynedd, one of Wrexham and Montgomeryshire and two of the rest. For those who prefer not to have a cross-Berwyn constituency, that means Montgomery has to go with most of Gwynedd except Bangor and make up the difference with interior parts of Conway (and possibly Denbighshire if you also want to keep Caernarfon with Anglesey.) Anglesey then extends along the north coast as far as Abergele (if you're not including Caernarfon) or Colwyn Bay (if you are) and you've then got two seats for the remainder. As much as I dislike cross-Berwyn seats, it's probably less disruptive than the alternative. Two seats for NPT and Swansea is then an option, though the boundary in Swansea might be a little awkward and it's perhaps tempting to keep a couple of Bridgend wards so you can run the Swansea boundary along the river - this also makes the maths easier in Mid Glamorgan. Without the Upper Tawe valley, combining Brecon with Monmouthshire certainly makes sense but you definitely need some extra population - mostly likely the Torfaen wards that were in the Monmouthshire constituency up until this year. Newport then goes with either Caerphilly town or Cwmbran and that determines how the remaining seats covering bits of Caerphilly borough are drawn - either way, the eastern one needs to include not just Merthyr and Aberdare, but also Mountain Ash, in effect reuniting the Cynon Valley constituency. Then one constituency for the Vale of Glamorgan and Bridgend, and one for Rhondda, Pontypridd and Ogmore. |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 24, 2024 2:35:35 GMT
So by that logic Yns Mon can't be paired with anywhere and you're left with an odd number of seats Ynys Môn clearly needs to be paired with somebody - and there are only two options. 1. Bangor Aberconwy - which fits a precise definition of 'contiguous' which would include direct road links 2. Dwyfor Meirionydd - which fits a looser definition of 'contiguous' which ignores the absence of direct road links. Whichever option is chosen then determines the pairing of the remaing seats across north of Wales. Option 1 would force a combination of Dwyfor Meirionydd with Montgomeryshire Glyndwr which would stretch the 'local ties' argument. For this reason I expect Option 2 to be chosen. |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 24, 2024 2:47:28 GMT
Unfortunately this DBCW review is not empowered to modify existing UK/Senedd constituencies - only to pair the existing ones.
So we are stuck with the Cwmtawe appendage which forces a tough decision to be made regarding who to pair Brecon, Radnor & Cwmtawe with. This will probably be the most difficult decision the Review will need to make, and which will then effectively determine the proposals for the rest of Wales.
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Post by Penddu on Jul 24, 2024 2:53:48 GMT
I am looking forward to some simpler names - not just blindly pairing existing ones. So we will never have to see:
Brecon, Radnor and Cwmtawe and Montgoneryshire and Glyndwr
I hope we never have to see this seat for other reasons - I was just using as an example of a bad name.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,075
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 24, 2024 12:21:09 GMT
It would please the sort of busybodies who like to pester the Boundary Commission, though.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 24, 2024 18:32:04 GMT
I am looking forward to some simpler names - not just blindly pairing existing ones. So we will never have to see: Brecon, Radnor and Cwmtawe and Montgoneryshire and Glyndwr I hope we never have to see this seat for other reasons - I was just using as an example of a bad name. I vote for Powys Plus |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 24, 2024 18:52:50 GMT
Powys & The Leftovers
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 24, 2024 19:03:39 GMT
I like their difficult second album. |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 25, 2024 17:52:39 GMT
The Glyndwr area used to be Powys Fadog...
So Powys & Pontardawe
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 26, 2024 18:09:02 GMT
So by that logic Yns Mon can't be paired with anywhere and you're left with an odd number of seats since Pembrokeshire has similar problems, obviously they will be paired 😗 |
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 27, 2024 5:44:42 GMT
So by that logic Yns Mon can't be paired with anywhere and you're left with an odd number of seats since Pembrokeshire has similar problems, obviously they will be paired 😗 The logical pair for Mid & South Pembrokeshire is North Devon. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 27, 2024 11:43:03 GMT
When I make my submissions on behalf of the Green Party (who I am currently consulting with) I believe that when it comes to names, sense will prevail, so for instance, if Ceredigion and Mid and South Pembrokeshire were to be paired I would come up with three names
1) Sir Ceredigion ac Sir Penfro
2) Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire
3) Cardigan Bay and the Pembrokeshire Coast
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 27, 2024 11:47:01 GMT
When I make my submissions on behalf of the Green Party (who I am currently consulting with) I believe that when it comes to names, sense will prevail, so for instance, if Ceredigion and Mid and South Pembrokeshire were to be paired I would come up with three names 1) Sir Ceredigion ac Sir Penfro 2) Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire 3) Cardigan Bay and the Pembrokeshire Coast Is that in the same way as 'sense' is made to prevail by the Labour NEC when they impose shortlists on CLPs? ie. You propose one sensible name (2) and two absurd names so they are bound to go for your sensible suggestion? |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 27, 2024 14:32:11 GMT
When I make my submissions on behalf of the Green Party (who I am currently consulting with) I believe that when it comes to names, sense will prevail, so for instance, if Ceredigion and Mid and South Pembrokeshire were to be paired I would come up with three names 1) Sir Ceredigion ac Sir Penfro 2) Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire 3) Cardigan Bay and the Pembrokeshire Coast Is that in the same way as 'sense' is made to prevail by the Labour NEC when they impose shortlists on CLPs? ie. You propose one sensible name (2) and two absurd names so they are bound to go for your sensible suggestion? My understanding is that Welsh names will be considered if the constituency created is Welsh enough, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire would indeed be Welsh enough therefore Sir Ceredigion ac Sir Penfro would be a valid name |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,144
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Post by Foggy on Jul 27, 2024 17:52:29 GMT
Is that in the same way as 'sense' is made to prevail by the Labour NEC when they impose shortlists on CLPs? ie. You propose one sensible name (2) and two absurd names so they are bound to go for your sensible suggestion? My understanding is that Welsh names will be considered if the constituency created is Welsh enough, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire would indeed be Welsh enough therefore Sir Ceredigion ac Sir Penfro would be a valid name It would not be valid because you didn't make any soft mutations, plus before the letter S the word for "and" is simply " a" - though the Welsh Commission often tries to avoid this in areas where the primary name is Welsh, so they'd probably just go for something like "Ceredigion Sir Benfro" or even "Ceredigion Penfro" (the latter would just mean Ceredigion Pembroke without the "-shire" but at least it's succinct). |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 27, 2024 18:21:30 GMT
No need to add Sir to Ceredigion.
Ceredigion & Pembrokeshire will probably win it.
I suggest Sir Gâr for the Caerfyrddin & Llanelli seat.
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Post by Penddu on Jul 28, 2024 17:11:29 GMT
Assuming next combination would be Swansea East and Neath with Aberafan Maesteg, how about West Glamorgan?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 28, 2024 18:15:30 GMT
Fewer than 5% of the population under the age of 40 at the next election will have any concept of what Glamorgan is/was.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,836
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Post by john07 on Jul 28, 2024 19:12:49 GMT
Fewer than 5% of the population under the age of 40 at the next election will have any concept of what Glamorgan is/was. What about cricket followers? |
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